Daily Archives: October 25, 2007

In the blogosphere, everything is immediate. The deadline is now.

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No GravatarWith all due respect, I totally disagree with Tyler Cowen (of Marginal Revolution fame). Here are some outstanding blogs and sites that are seldom prompted by immediacy:

  1. Alea – (finance)
  2. Endless Innovation –
  3. Read &amp- Write Web – (information technology)
  4. Guy Kawasaki – (marketing)
  5. Technology Review –
  6. Tierney Lab – (applied science)
  7. The Numbers Guy –
  8. Add your suggestion(s) in the comment area, just below. :-D

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Bzzzzzzzzz…
  • Bzzzzzzzzz…
  • “No offense, but I think Radley Balko is the most valuable blogger in America right now.”
  • Are you a better predictor than John McCain?
  • What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?
  • Inkling Markets, one year later
  • One trader’s view on BetFair’s new bet-matching logic

SophistPundit – Finite Mathematics

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SophistPundit:

Set Theory

  1. Introduction
  2. The Inclusion-Exclusion Principle
  3. TI-83 Calculator Trick: Set Unions/Incercepts
  4. Permutations and Combinations
  5. The Binomial Theorem
  6. The Story Thusfar: A Cram Session Special
  7. Partitions and Multinomial Coefficients

Probability

  1. Introduction
  2. Experiment Probability vs. Probability of Outcome
  3. Calculating Probability for specific Events
  4. Conditional Probability and Related Lessons
  5. Bayes&#8217- Theorum

Statistics

  1. Introduction
  2. Binomial Trials
  3. Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
  4. The Normal Distribution

Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)

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The conference will be held next Thursday (1 November) at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007) and the schedule is listed below.

I am pleased to note that Mat Fogarty (Founder and CEO, Xpree) and Alexander Costakis (Managing Director, HSX) have been added to the program.

Please get in touch with me ([email protected]) if you are interested in attending or have any questions.

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Schedule

8:30 Registration, Coffee, Opening Remarks

9:00 Lessons from Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets

Henry Berg, Microsoft

Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics)

Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market- abstract is free, text is gated)

Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy)

10:45 Coffee Break

11:00 Lessons from Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets (cont)

Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market)

Discussant: Paul Rhode (Department of Economics. Eller College of Management, University of Arizona)

Bo Cowgill, Google (Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work)

Discussant: Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth Department of Economics)

12:45 Lunch

Keynote address: Jim Lavoie, Co-Founder and CEO, Rite-Solutions

1:45 Lessons from Prediction Market Organizers and Operators

John Delaney, Founder and CEO, Intrade

David Perry, Co-Founder and President, Consensus Point

Mat Fogarty, Founder and CEO, Xpree Inc

3:15 Break (refreshments)

3:30 The Legal Playing Field

Tom W. Bell, Chapman University School of Law

Discussant: Robert E. Litan (VP Research and Policy at the Kauffman Foundation, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, Director of the AEI-Brookings Joint Center on Regulatory Studies)

4:15 General Discussion

Alexander Costakis (Managing Director, Hollywood Stock Exchange) will also be available to answer questions and may make a short presentation.

Previous blog posts by Koleman Strumpf:

  • Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets
  • Slides of presentations from Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City
  • Summary of Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City
  • Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007)
  • Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World
  • Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.)
  • Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market?

Who wrote the broadest definition of prediction markets?

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Certainly not Chris Masse, says Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures:

[…] No, HSX box-office predictions are forecasts, not event probabilities, so if you restrict the definition to event probabilities, you exclude most of HSX. Same for “vote-share” markets at IEM. […]

Read the whole conversation (including the last Jason Ruspini comment) and decide for yourself. Now that Robin Hanson left us high and dry, who will write the broadest definition of prediction markets?