Daily Archives: September 21, 2007

Prediction markets at the Money Tech conference

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Money Tech conference = Technology and Money, Asset Management and Networks, Computing Horsepower and Trading + Prediction Markets

Robin Hanson will be presenting on prediction markets at the Money Tech conference. He is not yet on the official program, but our friend (and prediction market skeptic) Barry Ritholtz tells us that Robin Hanson was at the pre-conference dinner. (Robin Hanson was quite surprisingly &#8220-fascinating&#8221-, he wrote. :-D Will Robin Hanson manage to turn this skeptic into a fanboy? We&#8217-ll see.)

Psstt&#8230- Barry Ritholtz talks about November 2007 while the official site says February 2008. Bizarre.

Thanks to Alex Kirtland for alerting us about this Money Tech conference, last month.

UPDATE: Barry Ritholtz comments&#8230-

November? How did that happen?

I meant February.

My current excuse for any brain glitch like this is to declare that I smoked way too much pot in college and leave it at that. (That’s much better than admitting advanced senility/aging)

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina won’t stop the Clintons.
  • eTech 2008 — Google’s enterprise prediction markets
  • Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making
  • Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub
  • Why you should launch your brand-new prediction exchange at a conference
  • Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies are Outsourcing to China
  • Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

The Bet2Give real-money betting exchange could facilitate the sponsoring of socially valuable prediction markets by foundations and think tanks.

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Could Emile Servan-Schreiber push his Bet2Give concept a bit further?

I&#8217-m thinking of something, having in mind the LongBets experiment. Bet2Give lets traders select the charity of their choice. Good. But can&#8217-t we go further than that? Why not letting some people (like Robin Hanson and his gullible fanboys like Chris Hibbert :-D ) create some long-term, socially valuable prediction markets, all this funded by foundations or think tanks&#8217- money (since the money will never leave the non-for-profit world, anyway). I mean, if AEI-Brookings funded the experiment, the subsidized traders could designate AEI-Brookings as the recipient of the trading winnings, right? So, the AEI-Brookings money would indeed be used for the trading, but, in the end, it would cost AEI-Brookings only some trading fees (5 cents for each dollar).

And, I&#8217-d like to see more interactions between blogs and prediction markets. In the scenario above, there would be a strong incentive to do just that from the part of all those crazy blogging experimental economists, don&#8217-t you think? Those hyper inflated egos will fire blog posts like crazy about their ongoing experiments at Bet2Give, and that would help the marketing of those experimental prediction markets.

Bet2Give is a too good idea to bet let it in the hands of Emile Servan-Schreiber. Does EJSS have what it takes to push the Bet2Give concept further? (EJSS is much smarter than most people in the field of prediction markets, but that&#8217-s not enough. He is not crazy enough.) I suggest that Bet2Give be declared of international social utility and be run by the Organization of the United Nations. :-D

Previous: Here’s how Bet2Give explains what a prediction market is to its prospects.