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What Do We Mean When We Talk About Intuition? – by James Surowiecki
[…] This suggests that the real challenge is figuring out which problems can be solved by rapid cognition and which are better solved by a calculating, rational approach. […]
Challenging the Standard Model of Decision-Making – by Malcolm Gladwell
[…] The war game that I write about, which was the most expensive and most elaborate war game ever conducted in history ($500 million dollars!), was a preview of the Iraq War. One side played the United States. Van Riper, essentially, played Saddam Hussein. And van Riper won, hands down, sinking half the U.S. Navy on the second day of the war. How did that happen? Because at the moment he attacked the U.S. Forces, they were so caught up in their computers and charts and systems analysis and complex matrixes that they had lost the ability to engage in the flexible, free-wheeling, instinctive thinking that is essential in the midst of battle. […]
The Virtues of Group Decision-Making – by James Surowiecki
[…] To me, that’-s one of the (and maybe the) great virtues of collective decision-making: It doesn’-t matter when an individual makes a mistake. As long as the group is diverse and independent enough, the errors get corrected and you’-re left with the knowledge. […]
The Biases and Delusions of Experts – by Malcolm Gladwell
[…] My survey of Fortune 500 CEOs, as you mentioned, revealed that, with very few exceptions, they are almost all tall. Are CEOs chosen whimsically? Not at all. Committees spend weeks and months in deliberation. But at the end of the day they still end up overwhelmingly picking tall men. Deliberation makes us more confident in our decision. But I’-m not sure it makes the decision itself more accurate and free of bias. […]
Which Information Really Does Matter? – by James Surowiecki
[…] I’-ve thought for a while now that one of the reasons why the collective decision-making mechanisms I write about in my book—like, for instance, betting markets—work well is that in part they aggregate intuitions and impressions that people can’-t necessarily articulate, but that are nonetheless real and valuable. […]
How To Improve the Decision-Making Environment – by Malcolm Gladwell
[…] For instance, one of the really interesting facts about police work is that an officer behaves much better—makes better decisions, fires his gun less frequently, has fewer complaints filed against him—when he is by himself than when he is paired with a partner. Officers on their own are far more cautious. Without the emboldening presence of a companion, they take far fewer risks. They don’-t pick fights, or put themselves into nearly as many ambiguous or dangerous situations, because they know they have no one looking out for them. […]