The Harry Potter litmus test

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I propose the following test to check whether &#8220-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel&#8220-.

Is J.K. Rowling able to write an 8th installment of the series (a sequel) without resurrecting Harry Potter?

1. If &#8220-yes&#8221-, that means that &#8220-Harry Potter is alive at the end of the novel&#8221-.

2. If &#8220-no&#8221-, that means that &#8220-Harry Potter is not alive at the end of the novel&#8221-.

NOTE: Prequels are of course allowed in both cases. (Thanks to Deep Throat for the tip)

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1. If J.K. Rowling writes in an epilogue that Harry Potter will die after a life well lived (that is, from natural cause, after a long and happy life), then an 8th book is possible.

2. If J.K. Rowling writes that Harry Potter dies in the hands of his &#8220-old nemesis&#8221-, then an 8th book is not possible (unless J.K. Rowling resurrects her hero).

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Note that, in the Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes case, we are in the configuration #2.

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Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows. (15,813 contracts held.)


© NewsFutures

Static chart:

Harry Potter NewsFutures

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Previous: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

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NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).

BETFAIR DOES FIGHT VIGOROUSLY ANY ATTEMPTS AT MONEY LAUDERING.

No GravatarBetFair&#8217-s P.R. release (BetFair PDF file):

London, 11th July 2007

There have been a number of recent media articles suggesting that terrorist offences concerning planned attacks in London in November 2005, for which Waseem Mughal and Younis Tsouli were convicted, involved money laundering through Betfair’s site. Indeed an individual was convicted for specific money laundering/fundraising offences, and the articles have suggested successful attempts to launder money through Betfair.

A number of attempts were made to use Betfair’s site fraudulently, but they were unsuccessful: they were identified- accounts were closed- and all relevant information was shared with the police. It is simply incorrect to say in respect of Betfair that “winnings were withdrawn and transferred to online bank accounts under their [the terrorists’] control”.

We worked with the police during this investigation, and continue to do so as necessary. We are pleased to have played our part in providing evidence to them.

We are prevented from disclosing anything further.

Notes to Editors:

1. Betfair has a money laundering team of four full time employees, headed by a former Detective Chief Inspector in the Serious &amp- Economic Crime Directorate of the Metropolitan Police.

2. Betfair is compliant with the Proceeds of Crime Act and the soon-to-be-implemented EU Directive on money laundering.

For further information, please contact Mark Davies, +44 20 8834 8208

Previous: BRITISH BETTING EXCHANGE BETFAIR USED FOR MONEY LAUNDERING BY RADICAL ISLAMIC CYBER-CRIMINALS WHO PREPARED THE GROUNDWORK FOR ANTI-WESTERN TERRORISTS. – I have updated that old blog post with today&#8217-s correction.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.
  • 50% of our prediction market luminaries have a MacBook.
  • STRAIGHT FROM OUR TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
  • Ron Paul (R) and Barney Frank (D) ally together to attack “the practical hurdles of the federal law, known as the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, rather than its legitimacy”.
  • Clicking on the “SPHERE: RELATED CONTENT” button, at the bottom of each Midas Oracle post, will bring you a list of external webspots.
  • FRIGHTENING: Jed Christiansen’s prediction market blog was briefly overtaken by web spammers, who inserted invisible links to their commercial sites so as to game the Google PageRank system.

We, the undersigned, petition J.K. Rowling to write more new adventures for Harry Potter and his friends no matter what happens at the end of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.

No GravatarSave Harry Potter

There is a precedent for resurrecting a literary hero &#8212-Sir Arthur Conan Doyle&#8217-s Sherlock Holmes. In The Adventure of the Final Problem (1893), Sherlock Holmes falls to his death during a violent struggle with his nemesis, Professor Moriarty. A public clamor then persuaded Conan Doyle to resurrect him.

Holmes archenemy and popularly-supposed nemesis was Professor James Moriarty (&#8221-the Napoleon of Crime&#8221-), who fell, struggling with Holmes, over the Reichenbach Falls. Conan Doyle intended The Final Problem, the story in which this occurred, to be the last that he wrote about Holmes. However, the outpouring of protests and letters demanding that he bring back his creation convinced him to continue. He did so with The Hound of The Baskervilles, although this was a case Holmes was involved in before his supposed death. His return in The Adventure of the Empty House had Conan Doyle explaining that only Moriarty fell over the cliff, but Holmes had allowed the world to believe that he too had perished while he dodged the retribution of Moriarty&#8217-s underlings.

Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.


© NewsFutures

Previous: Sherlock Holmes and Professor Moriarty at Reichenbach Falls

Sherlock Holmes (the good) and Professor Moriarty (the villain) fell together in the Reichenbach Falls. Sherlock Holmes is thought to be dead. Many years later, he re-appears, to the astonishment of his Doctor Watson.

–&gt- Let’s say there were a prediction market on the Sherlock Holmes survival, which was bound to expire just after the Reichenbach Falls episode. It would have expired on the “no” side —although the ultimate truth was going to be that Sherlock Holmes was still alive.

UPDATE: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Many people twitter on prediction markets.
  • Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
  • Prediction Market Journalism
  • TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
  • Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
  • Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
  • The Six Degrees Of Separation

New Fee Structure At TradeSports Causes Confusion.

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[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]

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Tradesports.com (and sister operation, Intrade.com) have long been at the forefront of exchange-based sports wagering and futures markets. In operation since 2002, Tradesports represented the first real exchange open to Americans, long preceding eventual rivals Mansion and Matchbook.

The Tradesports fee structure has long been the subject of player confusion, at least for in-game betting. Previously, trades were subject to trading fees, and the holder of the shares at expiry was also charged expiration fees. Tradesports recently reconfigured their fees to be more in line with other exchanges. The new fee structure calls for a 4% commission to be assessed on the net profit on any market, regardless of the number of individual buy/sell orders placed.

The new fee structure, in general, has met with approval from traders, as it should increase liquidity on in-game betting, a niche market which Tradesports has mostly cornered. The elimination of transaction fees means players won&#8217-t be penalized for actively trading in a market. And while the new commission structure is undercut significantly by Matchbook (charging only 2%), it is generally cheaper for most scenarios than the preceding fee structure at Tradesports.

The previous structure also allowed pre-game trades to occur commission-free. Now all trades, regardless of time placed, will be taxed at the same 4% commission level. Tradesports has given up the big price advantage they had by offering pre-game trades with no commission, one area where they were cheaper than competitors. Perhaps Tradesports is aiming more towards the European market, and trying to undercut BetFair&#8217-s 5% fee. Tradesports has a lot of catching up to do in that market, however, and Tradesports still fails to offer the volume discounts that BetFair does, a big benefit for heavy traders.

One point of controversy is that Tradesports is charging the new commissions on long-term market contracts that were in existence prior to the fee change, and which have been trading under the old rules. This is not the first time Tradesports has retroactively changed fees on markets already trading, having faced similar complaints in November of 2006. Of course, the issue is that an exchange like Tradesports, with markets constantly trading, never has a &#8220-downtime&#8221- to make major changes like reconfiguring fee structures. It is impossible to smoothly transition to new rules in an active market.

Following trader outcry, Tradesports relented and promised to refund the excess fees for any shares that were already traded prior to the implementation of the new commission structure. However, all future trades would be subject to the 4% profit tax, even if the market had been actively trading for months. This prevents traders from trading out of their current positions without suffering the 4% profit tax. While Tradesports did notify their traders of the fee increase a week in advance, the ambiguity regarding whether fees would be applied to pre-game trades as well as to existing contracts was not clarified until after the new fees had gone into effect.

Tradesports could have avoided this confusion quite easily by explaining their position more clearly well before the new fee structure took effect. This would have allowed those who wanted to hold onto their positions to know that they would not be charged higher fees than they expected going into the trade. It would also allow those who did not want to hold their contracts to completion to exit the market prior to the new fee structure. Ideally, Tradesports would have offered traders a few days grace period where they could close existing positions without incurring the new fees, or even offer to buy back or sell outstanding shares to traders at a preset baseline price, to allow them to exit the market.

While hardly a travesty, the transition could have been carried out better. Existing contracts have not lost any value, as long as the current holder holds them until the end. Yes, traders have lost the liquidity that exchange betting brings, but this is a minor glitch in a long-established operation. But to maintain the goodwill of their customers, Tradesports needs to avoid such glitches in the future.

For future rules changes, Tradesports should consider shutting down active markets permanently, with at least a few weeks advance notice. This would allow traders to decide whether they were willing to hold their positions until the end, or whether to get out before the new rule change. For instance, the existing World Series future market could have been closed to further trading as of June 27th. Anyone still holding shares as of a set date would be stuck with them for the duration, when they would be paid out under the old structure. A new World Series market could have been opened immediately, now trading under the new rules. This scenario allows all traders in a given market to participate under the same set of rules, and eliminates the ambiguity that caused trader confusion in the present case. Having both the new and old markets open simultaneously would allow further liquidity, as traders hedged their risk on long-term versus short-term holdings.

More important is the lack of attention this move has received in the online gambling community. This may speak to the fact that Tradesports&#8217- profile in the online gambling arena has diminished significantly in recent years. Outside of some isolated message board posts calling foul for changing prices after bets are made, this topic has received scant attention.

The new fees likely have set Tradesports back significantly in the pre-game betting arena, as they now will offer prices closely in-line with traditional sportsbooks, and will be twice as expensive as closest competitor Matchbook.com. It appears the only real niche Tradesports may have is in-running wagering, as traditional sportsbooks have failed to expand live betting options, and the selection of opportunities at Matchbook is still limited. The new fee structure should provide added liquidity to the in-game markets, and this may become the ultimate niche for Tradesports if they are unable to compete in fees with other exchanges. If Matchbook were to step up their in-game selection, and market liquidity, they might price Tradesports right out of business.

07-11-07
Jay Graziani
MajorWager.com
graziani -|at|- majorwager -.- com

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[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]

Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short.

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If there is a 50/50 chance of the epilogue being interpreted as part of the novel (I think it would be higher) and a high chance of a sad epilogue (telling Harry Potter will die after a life well lived), then I don&#8217-t think I would want to be long on survival.

Signed: Deep Throat

Previous blog posts by Deep Throat:

  • Who will write to the CFTC?
  • Why do BetFair Games (regulated in Malta, E.U.) have a timer on games?
  • Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA)
  • IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission’s first pointer.
  • Rumor Mill — Wednesday morning
  • Conference on Prediction Markets
  • How BetFair did treat its customers on the day that the BetFair Starting Price system crashed down