Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: May, 2007

Let’s unmask Senator Secrecy.

Society of Professional Journalists:
The nation needs your help.
On April 12, the Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously passed the Open Government Act, sponsored by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). The bill would strengthen the federal Freedom of Information Act, which is one of the most powerful tools Americans have to supervise the inner [...]

When will the SPJ.org crowd sourcing effort identify the senator who put the hold on the Open Documents Act?

Inkling Markets:
One of the Senators of the United States has put a secret hold on the Open Government Act, passed by the House and Senate. SPJ.org is crowd sourcing the story to find out which U.S. Senator put a secret hold on the Open Government Act. Go to http://spj.org/ogahold.asp for all the details and to [...]

Brent Stinski’s Media Predict made it into The Economist.

The Economist
The tough questions are not asked.

What is the biggest uncovered risk category, and how would you hedge it?

Jason Ruspini:
While when proposing new markets, “speculators” is often a pat answer when there are no obvious counter-hedgers, we know that hedge funds and others are looking for capacity, and there are many examples of possible legislative markets where there are natural counter-hedgers. In your example just replace “tax” with “subsidy” and suddenly every other [...]

American Greed: Scams, Scoundrels, and Scandals.

LA Times: CNBC probes stock-game claims.

Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.)

Justin and Eric would like to put some stakes on whether there is a manipulation. In particular, they want to base it on whether intrade’s Hillary-for-president stock goes up or down in the next month.
While I always like a good bet, I am not sure how this one addresses whether there is manipulation. Under efficient [...]

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.

Both Eric Zitzewitz and I have recently noticed some suspicious activity in the InTrade market for whether Hillary Clinton will be elected President, with someone bidding up her odds from about 25 to around 40 (currently hovering at 38). This just strikes as us too high, relative to her chances of even garnering the [...]

Their method can show how speculators expect a Republican president to effect any outcome X, but it suffers from three key limitations…

Robin Hanson on the virtue of “decision markets”, pinching Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz’s noses.

HILARIOUS: Bill Maher on France, the French… and conservatives’ French bashing.

FRENCH DISSING: Bill Maher on YouTube
People in the field of prediction markets who have French blood: Emile Servan-Schreiber (who has also the U.S. citizenship and whose firm is incorporated in the U.S.), Chris. F. Masse… and UK-based trader extraordinaire JCK (WHOSE REAL NAME IS “JEAN-CLAUDE KOMMER”).
Mugshot of EJSS:

MIDAS ORACLE SCOOP: AT LEAST ONE OF THESE FIRMS HAS INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS.

Plus, another one that you don’t see in this list.

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