This is a recent picture of traitor Mike Linksvayer (much better than the New York Times picture where he looked like an angry chimp):

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First, Mike Linksvayer sided with moi:

[Hollywood Stock Exchange] could be an indicator that the [TradeSports] price is wrong and in which direction, which is enough for a [TradeSports] trader to place an order.

Then, as soon as I turned my back, he sold me down the river (I should have known!!!!!!):

I agree with everything you [you = Sacha Peter] write in the last comment (and your original challenge to CFM to put his money where his mouth is).

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#1. HSX &#8220-prices&#8221- are predictive (see The effectiveness of pre-release advertising for motion pictures – PDF – by Anita Elberse and Bharat Anand – 2005-03-05):

Despite the fact that the simulation does not offer any real monetary incentives, collectively, HSX traders generally produce relatively good forecasts of actual box office returns (e.g. Elberse and Eliashberg 2003, Spann and Skiera 2003). According to Pennock, Lawrence, Giles and Nielsen (2001a- 2001b), who analyzed HSX&#8217-s efficiency and forecast accuracy, arbitrage closure on HSX is quantitatively weaker, but qualitatively similar, relative to a real-money market. Moreover, in direct comparisons with expert judges, HSX forecasts perform competitively.

#2. You can investigate accuracy and precision scientifically- no need to back one&#8217-s research paper with one&#8217-s money.

#3. My original question was: “Should I use HSX info to speculate at TradeSports?”. Looking at HSX and TradeSports odds, maybe The Departed is correctly priced or underpriced at TradeSports, and maybe Babel is underpriced at TradeSports.