Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

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Tim Pawlenty won&#8217-t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it&#8217-s Mitt Romney.

The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.

That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.

I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.

I told you so.

UPDATE: It&#8217-s probably Sarah Palin.

4 thoughts on “Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

  1. RedState says that Tim Pawlenty is the Republican vice presidential nominee chosen by John McCain. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] UPDATE: No, it is probably Mitt Romney. […]

  2. Michael Giberson said:


    Not according to the consensus at InTrade as of about 9 AM EDT.

    Romney (and Pawlenty and many others) have had contract prices tank, while in the “Field” version of the VP market, the Field contract has shot up around 90.

    In the “Others upon request” VP market, Sarah Palin is at 40 and their has been a notable tick up for Tom Ridge.  Romney and Pawlenty are both under 10.

  3. Sarah… Who? | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] for my previous post about Mitt Romney. I consulted the political news websites before InTrade. ) Sarah […]

  4. Chris F. Masse said:

    I fucked it up. I corrected on the post, and I published another post.

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