Posts

The List Of The Last 1,000 Midas Oracle Posts

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  • Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
  • Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
  • Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
  • Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
  • Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
  • Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
  • Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
  • A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
  • The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
  • Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
  • Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
  • Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
  • A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
  • Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
  • Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
  • Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
  • Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
  • Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
  • Computers thru time — [CHART]
  • NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
  • Why Samsung is no Apple — [VIDEO]
  • Mitt Romney @ Bain Capital — [VIDEO]
  • Central banks should set up prediction markets. — [LINK]
  • Max Keiser on NADEX — [VIDEO]
  • New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
  • The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]
  • Much better than a bike… and more affordable than a SegWay… –> The Me-Mover — [VIDEO]
  • InTrade is not predictive, says notable financial journalist. — [SCREENSHOT]
  • Drudge links directly to InTrade prediction markets, bypassing journalos. — [SCREENSHOT]
  • BetFair’s glitch ruins a set of £23m prediction markets. — [LINKS]
  • Ex-HSX Max Keiser disses real-money prediction markets (again). — [VIDEO]
  • Legality of real-money prediction markets in America — [LINKS]
  • Steve Jobs deciphered by Walter Isaacson — [VIDEO]
  • Merry Xmas to the New Yorkers and the other Earthlings — [VIDEO]
  • Touché. Coulé. — [FACEBOOK SCREENSHOT]
  • The politically correct virus attacks Silicon Valley. — [VIDEO]
  • Tech predictions for the ones who believe in them — [VIDEO]
  • How US laws are made — [INFOGRAPHICS]
  • Gerald Celente got robbed of his gold. — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs, billion dollar hippy — [VIDEO]
  • 70-mph hydrogen-powered yacht harvests hydrogen from the water it floats on. — [VIDEO]
  • Accuracy vs Precision — [VIDEO]
  • The One Percent — [VIDEO]
  • Should we repudiate the public debt? — [VIDEO]
  • Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]
  • 10k bet — [VIDEO]
  • The dark secrets of Scientology — [VIDEO]
  • CIA’s psi spies — [VIDEO]
  • WikiLeaks: One Year Later — [VIDEO]
  • Nuclear Energy (cheap and safe) — [VIDEO]
  • Converting carbon waste into nanotubes — [VIDEO]
  • Apple is Steve Jobs. — [VIDEO]
  • The Yes Men Fix The World — [VIDEO]
  • From working on Wall Street… to occupy it. — [VIDEO]
  • Funding startups — [VIDEO]
  • How good ideas become important innovations — [VIDEO]
  • Organic Marketing — [VIDEO]
  • The Shock Doctrine — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs, the last words — [VIDEO]
  • The upcoming financial collapse could be a catalyst to do the right things. — [VIDEO]
  • Dell PCs versus Apple iPads — [CHART]
  • Gold — [VIDEO]
  • Siri controlling my room — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson — [AUDIO]
  • 10 reasons the Euro was a dumb idea — [LINK]
  • There are only 2 French financial analysts who are telling the truth about France and the EuroLand. — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs bios — [VIDEO]
  • Siri is clearly better. — [VIDEO]
  • New Zealand’s election gag law suspends iPredict’s political prediction markets. — [LINKS]
  • Prediction market manipulation — [LINK]
  • Dean Radin Interview — [VIDEO]
  • In a world in which information is like air, what happens to power? — [VIDEO]
  • SMARKETS: £50 million traded got them the attention of Wired UK magazine. — [SNAPSHOT + LINK]
  • The 12 lessons Guy Kawasaki learned from Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
  • Pirates of Silicon Valley (Documentary) — [VIDEO]
  • Walter Isaacson on Steve Jobs bio — [VIDEO]
  • Triumph of the Nerds — [VIDEO]
  • Very critical review of Isaacson’s book on Steve Jobs — [AUDIO]
  • Most of the 1% will go back to the 99% within 10 years. — [CHART]
  • The Price of Civilization — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs @ Charlie Rose — [VIDEO]
  • What The Bleep Do We Know — [VIDEO]
  • Pink Floyd = iPad app — [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel on Singularity — [VIDEO]
  • iGenius: How Steve Jobs Changed The World — [VIDEO]
  • John Gruber’s on Apple — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs Legacy — [VIDEO]
  • Roger McNamee – Disruption and Engagement — [VIDEO]
  • Andrea Rossi’s cold fusion reactor (the ‘E-Cat’) has not yet been validated by the scientific community. — [LISTING OF PAST EXPERIMENTS + CRITERIA FOR NUCLEAR REACTION]
  • The truth about Europe — [VIDEO]
  • No Nostalgia — [VIDEO]
  • Peter Schiff at Occupy Wall Street — [VIDEO]
  • Some US Congress members have engaged in insider trading. — [VIDEO]
  • Warehouse Automation — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs: The Lost Interview — [VIDEO]
  • Mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma — [BUG]
  • Once again, Yahoo!’s David Rothschild forgets to cite InTrade and BetFair as probability sources. — [OOPS]
  • Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]
  • Harvard Ec10 Walkout — [VIDEO]
  • Prediction Markets & Sex — [HUMOR]
  • Steve Jobs, circa 1990 — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs: One Last Thing — [VIDEO]
  • Is man-made global warming a hoax? — [CHART]
  • Peter Schiff: “I Am The 1%, Let’s Talk.”
  • iPad magic — [VIDEO]
  • 1 MW E-Cat cold fusion plant — [VIDEO]
  • Geothermal Energy — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs’ bio — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs celebration @ Apple’s Cupertino campus — [VIDEO]
  • “The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.” — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs left designer Jony Ive more power than anyone at Apple. — [VIDEO]
  • The life and death of Vincent van Gogh — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs bio — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs was a great visionary, and also a stubborn idiot who believed in magical thinking. — [VIDEO]
  • Herman Cain is a great man, but his GodFather pizzas do not taste good. — [QUALITY TEST]
  • Steve Jobs and the history of the iPhone — [VIDEO]
  • Quantum Levitation — [VIDEO]
  • This is the first time we are able to use the energy that is usually made on the inside of the stars in a clean and cheap way. — [VIDEO]
  • What is classical liberalism? — [VIDEO]
  • Magic Sauce — [VIDEO]
  • Andrea Rossi’s cold fusion reactor (“E-Cat”) outputs 4 times the energy (electricity) that enters it. — [REPORT]
  • How to silence a Nobel Prize winning economist: Ask him about the economy. — [VIDEO]
  • The Kauffman Foundation wants a Steve Jobs Memorial on the National Mall in Washington, D.C. — [LINK]
  • Boomerang — [VIDEO]
  • iPhone 4S + iOS 5 — [VIDEO]
  • Google Plus (Google+) is in free fall. — [CHART]
  • Exchanges are looking to grow by sealing mergers, investing in more profitable businesses, and capturing segments of trading that have long remained out of their grasp, everything from exotic derivatives to bonds. — [LINK]
  • Pirates of Silicon Valley — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs, as seen by Eric Schmidt, Marc Andreessen, Walter Mossberg, and Steve Wozniak — [VIDEO]
  • Gold and silver are now legal tender in Utah. — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs @ Apple — [VIDEO]
  • Occupy Wall Street = Civil Rights movement — [VIDEO]
  • Michael Lewis: Wall Street’s fingerprints all over EU crisis — [VIDEO]
  • Shine a Light — [VIDEO]
  • Scientific review of Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat — [REPORT]
  • Economist predicts a cascading meltdown of the world’s banking system, starting with sovereign debt in the Eurozone, and bringing down the global banking system. — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs, 1955-2011 — [VIDEO]
  • Adam Lindemann schools Felix Salmon about art business. — [VIDEO]
  • AI in iPhone 4S — [VIDEO]
  • Hackers did get into BetFair’s customer data, but BetFair kept quiet about it. — [LINK]
  • Max Keiser schools Roseanne Barr about how to ‘decapitalize’ Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. — [VIDEO]
  • The network of global corporate control — [PAPER]
  • Best ever economics lesson — [VIDEO]
  • I am very impressed by Amazon’s Kindles. — [VIDEO]
  • Larry Page on decision making — [VIDEO]
  • BetFair continues to be lambasted by The Guardian, and for all the good reasons. — [LINKS]
  • –> data science & predictive analytics
  • This economic crisis is like a cancer, if you just wait and wait hoping it is going to go away, just like a cancer it is going to grow and it will be too late! — [VIDEO]
  • Brian Josephson (Nobel Prize for Physics 1973) will test Andrea Rossi’s cold fusion reactor (the ‘E-Cat’), but Mike Giberson won’t even mention it on his energy economics blog. — [LINK]
  • Sean Parker — [VIDEO]
  • Ibrahim Maalouf — [VIDEO]
  • Yahoo’s David Rothschild scraps market info from InTrade (and BetFair?), does not cite them, and does not link to them. — [UPDATED]
  • BetFair is off the 2011 list of the most valuable startups. — [RANKING]
  • What can an entrepreneur say in an investor meeting that instantly marks them as an amateur? — [QUOTES]
  • What sink our economy: Entitlements — [VIDEO]
  • BankSimple — [VIDEO]
  • Regulations are crippling businesses. — [VIDEO]
  • Sur-excited BHL tries to infiltrate twice the Sarkozy-Cameron photo op in Benghazi, Lybia. — [VIDEO]
  • Probability of default — [EUROPE MAP]
  • US entrepreneurs pray and meditate more than non-entrepreneurs. — [SURVEY]
  • Bill Still on state banks and monetary reform — [VIDEO]
  • Dan Yergin says the global supply of oil and gas has risen in the last 20 years, defying the predictions of ‘peak oil’ theorists. — [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel on dropping out of college — [VIDEO]
  • How and Economy Grows and Why it Crashes — [VIDEO]
  • iPad’s iOS 5 vs. Windows 8 for tablets — [VIDEO]
  • Here’s the (portable) cold fusion-powered power plant that Andrea Rossi will deliver to Florida next month. — [VIDEO]
  • Where The Economist got inspiration for its ‘Grapes of Wrath’ cover — [ART]
  • How many predictions is the The Good Judgment Team’s system currently handling? — [NEWS]
  • A Multi-Agent Prediction Market Based on Boolean Network Evolution — [PAPER]
  • Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]
  • Search Engine Optimization (SEO) — [VIDEO]
  • Though not a legal, registered financial advisor, Justin Wolfers hands out financial ‘advice’ to anyone who is foolish enough to listen. — [SCREENSHOT]
  • China’s ghost cities are still being developed. — [VIDEO]
  • Cantor Fitzgerald, ten years after 9/11 — [VIDEO]
  • Debt = Slavery — [VIDEO]
  • Too Big To Fail — [VIDEO]
  • Inside Job — [VIDEO]
  • Enron gamed California’s deregulated electricity market, got a free pass from Arthur Andersen, used greed to manipulate banks and brokerages, and received congrats from both presidents Bush. — [VIDEO]
  • Jean-Michel Jarre’s 1986 huge concert in Houston, Texas + Jean-Michel Jarre’s 1988 epic concert in London’s Docklands, U.K. + Jean-Michel Jarre’s 1981 historic concerts in China. — [VIDEO]
  • Entrepreneurs do 3 things. — [VIDEO]
  • GOP Debate @ Reagan Library — [VIDEO]
  • Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]
  • Solar activity and cosmic rays drive the Earth’s climate. — [VIDEO]
  • Cold fusion is now mainstream. — [VIDEO]
  • EXCLUSIVE: The Davos report that the Beeb didn’t broadcast because it was too critical of the world oligarchy. — [VIDEO]
  • Andrea Rossi speaks. — [VIDEO]
  • John Cleese: London is no longer an English city. — [VIDEO]
  • Gasland — [VIDEO]
  • Take 2 in-vogue concepts (which you don’t master), and mix them together. Then, call your PR agent, and try to infiltrate the media to pump up your org. — [VIDEO]
  • The Great Global Warming Swindle — [VIDEO]
  • End of Ramadan in Moscow, Russia. — [VIDEO]
  • The NASA will soon test Andrea Rossi’s cold fusion reactor (E-Cat). — [LINK]
  • What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]
  • Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task — [PAPER]
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures) harnesses the wisdom of crowds (scientists and engineers) for the US Air Force. — [LINK]
  • The US public debt is $211 trillion, actually. — [AUDIO]
  • Jacque Fresco, a modern day Da Vinci. — [VIDEO]
  • Arrested for selling lemonade — [VIDEO]
  • The next big thing since sliced bread –> Grilled cheese — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
  • Apocalypto — [VIDEO]
  • Jeff Bezos invested $19.5 million in a fusion power startup. — [LINK]
  • The Feds raided Gibson Guitar over the legality of Indian wood. — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Wozniak and Ron Wayne are the two guys who started Apple with Steve Jobs in his parents’ garage. — [VIDEO]
  • In October 2011, Andrea Rossi’s Nickel-Hydrogen nuclear reactors (E-Cat) will power a US-based, 1MW power plant. — [VIDEO]
  • Is being pro-business and pro-capitalism the same? Does capitalism generate an unfair distribution of income? Was capitalism responsible for the most recent financial crisis? — [VIDEO]
  • Kings Of Pastry — [VIDEO]
  • The banks have hijacked the government. — [VIDEO]
  • Through dogged persistence, Albert Barnes put together what many critics consider the world’s finest collection of post-Impressionist and early modern paintings. – [VIDEO]
  • Much of what the government spends money on does more harm than good; this is particularly true over the past several years with the massive uncontrolled increase in government spending. I believe my business and non-profit investments are much more beneficial to societal well-being than sending more money to Washington. — [QUOTE]
  • Principled reasoning leads to startup success. — [VIDEO]
  • What makes people tick at work? — [VIDEO]
  • The government lies. The banks steal. The rich laughs. — [STREET ART]
  • Peter Thiel, worst person of the day — [VIDEO]
  • Arthur Laffer on taxes — [VIDEO]
  • Running bipedal robot — [VIDEO]
  • Stock market impacts of major US policy decisions — [CHARTS]
  • Bansky’s documentary film on public pranks — [VIDEO]
  • Paul Krugman says faked alien invasion would help US economy. — [VIDEO]
  • Nexus One, Google TV, and Honeycomb tablets have all been massive failures, just as bad, if not worse, than Microsoft’s Zune and Surface. — [LINK]
  • Will Paul Hewitt win the Nobel Prize of Economics next year? — [HUMOR]
  • Do webpages with higher PageRank rank higher than webpages with lower PageRank? — [VIDEO]
  • Some hedge funds are making money in this difficult market. — [LINK]
  • Could genetically engineered T cells be used as part of a therapy to save Steve Jobs’s life? — [SPECULATION]
  • Extracting billions from Americans — [VIDEO]
  • How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]
  • You can’t print gold. — [VIDEO]
  • How to buil a company from start — [VIDEO]
  • Elon Musk, the new Steve Jobs? — [VIDEO]
  • Is immigration endangering European society? — [POLL]
  • Money creation (in blue, in each of the 4 charts) — [VIDEO]
  • Globalization + Technology = Economic Progress — [VIDEO]
  • Defaulting — [VIDEO]
  • The privatization of space — [VIDEO]
  • The biggest impact of the S&P downgrade will be on the US dollar. — [VIDEO]
  • John Delaney’s OB — [RANT]
  • Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America — [VIDEO]
  • A passionate defense of the importance of scientific evidence and the power of experiment — [VIDEO]
  • Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]
  • Google is a playground run by pranking adolescents. — [LINKS]
  • The InTrade crisis deepens as their #1 fanboy calls for unwinding all trades on the debt ceiling prediction market — [SCANDAL]
  • You do not make much money trading triple-A-rated US government debt, the spreads are very tight, and there is not much money to be made. — [VIDEO]
  • Post-Delaney InTrade experiences turmoil related to the debt ceiling prediction market. — [CHART + LINK]
  • Chris Sacca on how he did it — [VIDEO]
  • Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]
  • Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]
  • When you die, ask David Pennock to write up your obituary. — [LINK]
  • Andrea Rossi’s Nickel-Hydrogen nuclear reactor (E-Cat) — [CRITICAL ANALYSIS]
  • There’s no solution to climate change. — [VIDEO]
  • The betting revolution in horse racing — [VIDEO]
  • People living in Chicago are the most honest. — [VIDEO]
  • The myth of the sole inventor — [PAPER + VIDEO]
  • He’s a good sport. — [SCREENSHOT]
  • I’m not gonna not live in a certain way just because there are people less fortunate than I am. — [VIDEO]
  • What is a dollar? — [VIDEO]
  • Communication, collaboration, critical thinking, and creativity — [VIDEO]
  • Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]
  • Tyler Cowen on how the Internet changes everything — [PODCAST]
  • About the latest Google PageRank update — [LINK + VIDEO]
  • Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, is run “like a cult”, says NY mag. — [LINK]
  • Robin Hanson’s wife sent the ABC News reporters packing. Don’t mention ‘cryogenics’ to her. — [VIDEO]
  • Jim Rogers: “Prepare for a lost decade or more.” — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs on technology disruption — [VIDEO]
  • Einstein’s 23 biggest mistakes — [LISTING]
  • The relative merits of native and web apps — [LINK]
  • Roger McNamee on today’s information technology opportunities — [VIDEO]
  • Roger McNamee on why both Apple and HTML5 are kings of the hill — [VIDEO]
  • The mock trial of the economists — [VIDEO]
  • Vernon Smith on the housing bubble, Adam Smith, and libertarianism — [VIDEO]
  • CERN scientists are gagged from discussing the close correlation between cosmic ray penetration and temperature. — [CHART + VIDEO]
  • MSNBC female journalist trying to ‘educate’ a US Congressman: “Do you have a degree in economics?” – Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL): “Yes ma’am, I do. Highest honors.” — [VIDEO]
  • In Q1, the iPad was equal to 7% of the PC market. Now, it’s at 11%. — [LINK]
  • Apple stock today — [CHART]
  • The economics of Sea Shepherd — [VIDEO]
  • Carl Bernstein on Rupert Murdoch — [VIDEO]
  • Apple’s initial legal victory over rival HTC in a patent infringement suit could pave the way for Apple to collect high royalties from devices running Google Android. — [LINK]
  • Scientific pointers about the Andrea Rossi’s Nickel-Hydrogen nuclear reactor (E-Cat) — [LINK]
  • Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]
  • Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex — [VIDEO]
  • PredictWise — [LINK]
  • Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]
  • ‘For Liberty’, the Ron Paul film — [VIDEO]
  • InTrade prediction markets on US debt ceiling — [CHARTS]
  • Ron Paul: “Is gold money?” –> Ben Bernanke: “No. It’s precious metal. It’s an asset.” –> Ron Paul: “Why do central banks hold it?” –> Ben Bernanke: “Long-term tradition.” — [VIDEO]
  • After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]
  • Matt Taibbi vs. Goldman Sachs — [VIDEO]
  • Our dwindling food variety — [CHART]
  • That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]
  • The Truth About Democracy — [VIDEO]
  • Ex-NewsFutures Emile Servan-Schreiber’s father tried (unsuccessfully) to get François Mitterrand to grant French citizenship to Steve Jobs. — [SCOOP]
  • How magicians use psychological principles to create magic — [VIDEO]
  • Innovating with pollens — [VIDEO]
  • “What’s interesting is that Apple is often credited with pioneering categories that they didn’t originate, but perfected.” — [LINK]
  • How labels screw musicians — [VIDEO]
  • Is there a sixth sense? — [VIDEO]
  • The crisis of meaning of the prediction markets — [HYPE CYCLE]
  • How Apple manages its suppliers of electronics — [ANALYSIS]
  • Samsung’s electronic campus is the size of a small city. — [VIDEO]
  • US worse than Greece? — [VIDEO]
  • No that many InTrade traders paid tribute to CEO John Delaney (whose corps remains on Mount Everest). — [LINK]
  • Ex-HSX Max Keiser speaks to lawyers in Athens, Greece, about lawsuits (and hangings) against Goldman Sachs. — [VIDEO]
  • Jean-Michel Jarre’s 2011 concert at Monaco was the most innovative gig on Earth (lasers, synchronized fireworks, colored lightning on white smokes, etc.). — [VIDEO]
  • Collaborate to Innovate — [VIDEO]
  • Defkalion is the company that will produce energy using Andrea Rossi’s Ni-H cold fusion technology (LENR, E-Cat). — [VIDEO]
  • Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]
  • BetFair loses CEO, buys back shares… and increases premium charges on big traders. — [LINK]
  • Iceland shows defaulters are forgiven. — [LINK]
  • Why does InTrade offer gold contracts to US customers when they signed a 2005 agreement with the CFTC not to offer commodity options to US customers? — [DOCUMENT]
  • Internet “non-gambling” in D.C. — [LINK]
  • The Five Dysfunctions of Leadership — [BOOK]
  • Google+ is just another Google Wave: Cool, but too complex. — [LINK]
  • Terry Gilliam’s Lost in La Mancha — [VIDEO]
  • Bloomberg TV profiles Charles and David Koch. — [VIDEO]
  • Cold fusion scientist publishes harsh criticism of Andrea Rossi’s approach. — [VIDEO + LINK]
  • Mike Giberson is so obsessed with shale gas that he unconsciously refuses to see the Ni-H cold fusion revolution. — [LINK]
  • Robin Hanson’s friend (from the NASA era) wants to mine the Moon. — [VIDEO]
  • Edward Bernays: Propaganda — [VIDEO]
  • The Greek crisis is the crisis of the Euro. — [VIDEO]
  • The wreck that is Google — [LINK]
  • What would you tell a generation living 1,000 years from now about the life you’ve lived and the lessons you’ve learned? — [VIDEO]
  • EuroCopter X3: High-speed winged helicopter — [VIDEO]
  • Will BetFair CEO David Yu exit? — [LINK]
  • Energy-efficient water electrolysis could open the way to mass produce hydrogen at a cheap cost, and reduce global dependence on fossil energy like oil and natural gas. — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Keen about the debt crisis and Minsky’s moment — [VIDEO]
  • There is no great stagnation, professor Cowen. — [LINK]
  • List of useful iPhone / iPad apps — [LINK]
  • “Rude and denigrating” free speech against Islam, “on the edge of what is allowed”, is officially allowed in Holland (the Netherlands). — [NEWS + VIDEO]
  • Nobel Laureate Brian Josephson (Emeritus Professor of Physics at Cambridge University) is highly interested in Andrea Rossi’s Ni+H nuclear reactor (the E-Cat). — [VIDEO]
  • By printing money, the earnings power of the proletariat is diminishing, while the assets held by the wealthy are going up. And at the same time, the wealthy are outsourcing more and more production to China, to further rob the masses. — [VIDEO]
  • Bruce Bartlett on taxes — [VIDEO]
  • FreedomFest, Las Vegas — July 14 to July 16 — [EVENT]
  • American citizens and its universities have experienced an ivy-laden ivory tower for the past half century. Students, however, can no longer assume that a four year degree will be the golden ticket to a good job in a global economy that cares little for their social networking skills and more about what their labor is worth on the global marketplace. — [LINK]
  • Apple’s Genius Bar: full loyalty, no negativity — [SECRET DOCUMENTS]
  • Many students believe that it is moral to confiscate money from hard-working Americans and entrepreneurs and give it to those who didn’t earn it, yet don’t support the same philosophy when it is applied to their GPA scores. — [VIDEO]
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber (of NewsFutures fame) says the last goodbye to his bro (an anti-cancer food expert who is fighting brain cancer, again). — [VIDEO]
  • CONFIRMATION: John Delaney’s behavior was irrational. — [LINK]
  • Building a dinosaur from a chicken — [VIDEO]
  • Norman Gary Finkelstein makes sense. — [VIDEO]
  • Lawrence O’Donnell pulverizes Donald Trump into fine particles, once again. — [VIDEO]
  • How to identify promising startup companies — [VIDEO]
  • IMPRESSIVE: KickStarter is now used to start up big projects. — [VIDEO]
  • MoneyBall — [VIDEO]
  • How do you protect a good idea? — [VIDEO]
  • Dominique Strauss-Khan’s donkey — [HUMOR]
  • Political prediction markets are good for your mental health. — [LINK]
  • Anti-cancer food expert David Servan-Schreiber is fighting brain cancer, again. — [LINK]
  • COLD FUSION: Brian Ahern is getting some success replicating Rossi and Focardi. — [LINK]
  • Bubble phases – (e.g., tulip mania, dot-com bubble, prediction market bubble) — [CHART]
  • There is no great stagnation, professor Cowen. — [VIDEO]
  • FORECASTING THE ECONOMY: Keynesian Economics vs. Austrian Economics — [VIDEO]
  • There is no great stagnation, professor Cowen. — [NEW TECH]
  • Peter Thiel @ Bilderberg 2011 — [LISTING]
  • Remote-controled helicopter, in a sphere — [VIDEO]
  • Cave of Forgotten Dreams — [VIDEO]
  • Freedom ranking of US states — [MAP]
  • Saving ocean fisheries with property rights — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs at Apple’s WWDC 2011 — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Blank: Of course, we are in a bubble, but it’s not a bad thing. — [VIDEO]
  • Machine learning is using a computer to recognize patterns in data, to then make predictions about new data, based the patterned recognized or learned from prior chosen training dataset. — [LINK]
  • Let’s build a portable nuclear reactor, folks. {*} — [VIDEO]
  • The Greeks sacrificed on the altar of the Euro? — [VIDEO]
  • The hotel maids are leading the revolt against the world oligarchy. — [VIDEO]
  • Nuclear energy is finished. Done. — [VIDEO]
  • GroupOn is a lemon. — [LINKS]
  • The US Federal Reserve “does not own any gold at all.” … “What appears on our balance sheet is gold certificates.” … — [VIDEO]
  • Who said the French press does not publish anything about the French politicians’ sex life? — [DOCUMENT]
  • The Belo Monte dam project in the Amazon rainforest has been OK’ed. — [VIDEO]
  • Midas Oracle’s stats about John Delaney’s death. — [ANALYTICS]
  • NASA’s Langley Research Center scientists are investigating low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR), which is sometimes labeled “cold fusion”. — [PODCAST]
  • The BetFair exodus continues. — [LINK]
  • Unbound, a kind of KickStarter for books (or e-books) — [VIDEO]
  • To get news on the E-cat, come here on Midas Oracle. To get news on CFTC rulings, go to Knowledge Problem. — [IRONY]
  • John Delaney Obituary — [LINKS]
  • Wanna leave for Silicon Valley? — [VIDEO]
  • 6 days later, the NYT on John Delaney’s death. — [NEWS]
  • Tyler Cowen on the technology-based economic expansion — [VIDEO]
  • Six Italian seismologists and one government official will be tried for the manslaughter of those who died in an earthquake that struck the city of L’Aquila on 6 April 2009. — [NEWS]
  • Peter Thiel gives $100k to twenty-something kids just out of college. — [NEWS]
  • Steven Levy is interviewed by Matt Cutts at GooglePlex in Mountain View. — [VIDEO]
  • Psychologist and economist George Loewenstein, Carnegie Mellon University, was an avid mountain climber “until I had kids and couldn’t tolerate the risk.” — [TAKEAWAYS]
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney (42) died on May 21, 2011, while climbing Mount Everest, and his body will remain there. — [OBITUARY]
  • Meet the masters of collective intelligence. — [VIDEO]
  • Rand Paul makes sense everytime he speaks. — [VIDEO]
  • BetFair employees believe that David Yu and the other top brass are a bunch of schmucks who are incapable of delivering leadership. — [NEWS]
  • Political Forecasting by Pundits — [VIDEO]
  • Eurocopter – X3 Hybrid Helicopter Demonstrator Achieving To Exceed 220 Knots (407 Km/h)
  • Tyler Cowen, proven wrong on PBS? — [VIDEO]
  • FaceBook acts as a de facto information gathering source for US intelligence agencies such as NSA, CIA and FBI. — [VIDEO]
  • Emmanuel Todd predicted the Arab Spring by looking at demo data. — [VIDEO IN FRENCH]
  • Bernard Henry-Lévy is a pretentious clown who is 10 times the national embarrassment to France than Dominique Strauss-Kahn ever is. — [RANT]
  • InTrade floats Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s life. — [PREDICTION MARKET]
  • Cold fusion reactors are coming to America, so US energy economists (like Michael Giberson) cannot ignore LENR anymore. — [NEWS]
  • Conspicacy theory (involving credit cards) about coffee futures — [VIDEO]
  • The right way to deal with invaders — [AUSSIE RULES]
  • Thomas Malone’s collective intelligence is an abyssal hodgepodge… “à la Prévert”. — [LINK]
  • Friday, the 13th — [HUMOR]
  • The 2009 takedown of Jim Cramer by John Stewart — [VIDEO]
  • Why accountants don’t run start-ups — [VIDEO]
  • Google Prediction API gives you access to Google’s sophisticated machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data and provide predictions for likely outcomes. — [FORECASTING TECH]
  • Frac gas exploitation pollutes drinking water. — [PAPER]
  • Is research scientist David Pennock easily impressed? — [TEST IT FOR YOURSELF]
  • Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]
  • The science of the Nickel-Hydrogen cold fusion reactor — [VIDEO]
  • The ‘carrot and stick’ approach has been oversold. — [VIDEO]
  • InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]
  • InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]
  • Grandson of famed economist Milton Friedman is sued for downloading porn over the Internet. — [LINK]
  • Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat is a cold fusion reactor able to convert few grams of nickel powder and a small amount of high pressure hydrogen into heat for many months. — [VIDEO]
  • Tyler Cowen’s The Great Stagnation — [REVIEW]
  • The Great Ephemeralization — [LINK]
  • Thomas Malone gives a bad name to collective intelligence. — [RANT]
  • InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
  • British electors don’t want to change their electoral system. — [PREDICTION MARKET]
  • The global environment mantra is the elites’s brand-new tool to alienate the people. — [VIDEO]
  • The Bridge To No-Where — [PICTURE]
  • Apple will eventually be worth more than $1 trillion ($1,000 per share). — [VIDEO]
  • Andrea Rossi’s cheap nuclear energy generator — [VIDEO]
  • An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media — [PAPER]
  • We were lied to, of course. — [LINK]
  • QualiQuanti’s Daniel Bô misunderstands collective intelligence. — [REBUTTAL]
  • Daryl Bem’s retrocausality paper discussed at Harvard — [VIDEO]
  • Why you should never trust John Battelle’s opinion on tech — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
  • U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]
  • Cold Fusion Prediction Markets — [HISTORY]
  • Andrea Rossi’s cold fusion reactor (E-cat) — [LINKS]
  • Yacouba Sawadogo, the man who stopped the desert — [VIDEO]
  • On The Use of Prediction Markets in Information Security (CIA’s In-Q-Tel) — [LINK]
  • Cantor Gaming’s betting tablet shall stay in Las Vegas. — [REVIEW]
  • Robin Hanson’s couple vs. Justin Wolfers’ s couple — [CONTRAST]
  • Energy Catalyzer (E-cat) = a cold fusion reactor that produces energy inputting hydrogen and nickel (and outputting copper) — [NEW TECH]
  • China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016. — [CHART]
  • Larry Page’s Google — [VIDEO]
  • Apple is *NOT* collecting your iPhone’s geo data. — [DEBUNKING]
  • The prediction market ideology still lives on. — [COMMENT]
  • A city that outsources everything (but police and fire service) — [VIDEO]
  • Tax Me If You Can – (Tax Havens) — [VIDEO]
  • Bryan Caplan on kids and parenting — [VIDEO]
  • Wall Street does not give credit to Google for Android. — [CHARTS]
  • Paul Allen on 60 Minutes — [VIDEO]
  • Prediction markets shall stay dwarf. — [APPLIED LOGIC]
  • David Pennock agrees that snubbing BetFair was a mistake. — [COMMENT]
  • Could the FBI seize InTrade’s domain name and kill the real-money prediction markets? — [SOLUTION]
  • Should the Goldman Sachs people be sent behind bars? — [VIDEO]
  • Did the prediction market industry fail because of the lack of usability of the prediction markets? — [REBUTTAL]
  • Regulators will become co-opted by a conflict of interest … AND/OR … Regulators are ignorant of the institutions they are charged with controlling. — [VIDEO]
  • Why you should stay away from Android — [VIDEO]
  • CIA now know InTrade’s prediction markets were not useful in assessing Fukushima. — [SCREENSHOT]
  • David Pennock on the state of the prediction market industry — [LINK]
  • SecondMarket and SharesPost — [LINK]
  • Media Predict Real-Money — [LINK]
  • The difference between making sense of things and predicting things is where we run into trouble. — [LINK]
  • InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
  • Making predictions with BeanSight — [LINKS]
  • Fred Wilson misunderstands Apple’s dynamics… very badly. — [CHART]
  • Forests — [VIDEO]
  • The Internet in Society: Empowering or Censoring Citizens? — [VIDEO]
  • Predicting the monthly releases of 10 major U.S. economic indicators — [VIDEO]
  • Areva’s analysis of the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident — [SLIDES]
  • Steve Wozniak at ACU conf — [VIDEO]
  • BetFair news — [LINKS]
  • On Twitter, BetFair wins hands down over InTrade. — [SCREENSHOT]
  • Beware thinkers who make their points using metaphors — [REBUTTAL]
  • Steve Randy Waldman wants to create a bloggers’ think tank. — [IDEA]
  • How does an upward trend impacts the novelty effect? — [STRATEGIC MARKETING]
  • Italian soccer story shows why over-focusing on betting is the wrong way to address potential corruption in sport. — [LINK]
  • Kauffman Economics Bloggers Forum — [WEBCAST]
  • Midas Oracle’s April Fools 2011 — [HUMOR]
  • Cryptome (a kind of WikiLeaks) publishes 10 photos of the destroyed Fukushima nuclear power plant. — [PHOTOS]
  • Pepsi invested heavily in so-called “social media” while de-investing in traditional advertising. — [ANALYSIS]
  • Are citations in science journals reflecting serious, genuine and productive R&D? — [CHART]
  • MicroSoft stole BetFair’s marketing idea. — [PHOTO]
  • The future belongs to hedge funds — [LINK]
  • Paul Allen on Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer during MicroSoft’s inception — [LINK]
  • We have become a nation of beggars. — [VIDEO]
  • What China is doing with all that copper… — [LINK]
  • 2 academic sites worth bookmarking — [LINKS]
  • Human Achievement Hour 2011 — [VIDEO]
  • China’s ghost cities — [VIDEO]
  • Areva’s analysis on Fukushima — [SLIDES]
  • Very few women have made History. — [LINK]
  • The Kochs… have virtue. — [LINK]
  • Fake marriages on the rise in Great Britain (and in other developed countries) — [VIDEO]
  • The user interface of this iPad app is hyper brillant. — [VIDEO]
  • Niall Ferguson gives a historical perspective on the current financial crisis. — [VIDEO]
  • BetTornado is the first sports trading app for the iPad. –> It connects to BetFair though their API. — [SCREENSHOTS]
  • Shutdown threat for BetFair as Italian regulator takes tough line on licences — [LINK]
  • Prediction Markets at AMMA 2011 — [LINK]
  • David Pennock on Predictalot — [LINK]
  • Christchurch, New Zealand, as the 2011 quake hits — [INCREDIBLE PICTURE]
  • BBC on France, the French, French politics, and Nicolas Sarkozy — [VIDEO]
  • Freedom ends when it comes to criticizing Islam. — [VIDEO]
  • I do not trust John Battelle. And I don’t need to know what my “friends” are doing near the spots I visit. — [RANT]
  • The W.P. Carey School researchers proved that prediction markets could work as a model-selection tool… — [LINK]
  • The Android operating system is rotten to the core. — [INFOGRAPHIC]
  • Ian Ayres: Unlocking the power of incentives — [VIDEO]
  • New York Times is going to fail, big time. — [CHART]
  • Excellence and secrecy form the basis of Apple’s innovation culture. — [VIDEO]
  • Answer to Robin Hanson about solar innovation — [REBUTTAL]
  • Bloomberg Game Changers: Marc Andreessen — [VIDEO]
  • Paris, Barcelona, Berlin, St. Petersbourg, Shanghai, Tokyo, New York and London — [VIDEO]
  • Nick Denton of Gawker Media about their website redesign — [VIDEO]
  • I enjoyed so much LeR3 and BarCamp Sophia-Antipolis. — [THANK-YOU NOTE]
  • Japanese nuclear disaster and Japanese press coverage — [TRUTH SOCIOLOGY]
  • Midas Oracle receives hundreds of visits per day. — [SCREENCHOT]
  • Consumers in the U.S. will soon be able to receive and send funds to any eligible Visa credit, debit or prepaid account, anywhere in the world. — [NEWS]
  • The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 6 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
  • PREDICTALOT IS THE LARGEST PREDICTION EXCHANGE CREATED BY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (9.2 QUINTILLION). — [LINK]
  • Is there really something “racist” in this rant? — [VIDEO]
  • The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 5 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Watch the English-speaking NHK for the latest on the Japanese nuclear disaster. — [VIDEO]
  • Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]
  • Markets can be designed to protect Mother Nature. — [VIDEO]
  • Are you more truthful when you are anonymous? — [VIDEO]
  • Inside the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Dominique Strauss-Kahn (“DSK”) — [VIDEO]
  • Steve Blank: The Democratization of Entrepreneurship — [VIDEO]
  • Paul Graham: If you have some kind of big visionary plan, you’re probably Webvan. — [VIDEO]
  • Justin Wolfers and his wife — [RANT AGAINST FEMINIZATION]
  • Idiots believe in earthquake prediction markets. — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]
  • 100% Pure Cockiness — [EVIDENCE]
  • What’s up with Emile Servan-Schreiber? — [LINK]
  • PAUL GRAHAM ON THE APPLE MONOPOLY: “Doesn’t Steve Jobs see that he’s the mean dictator in that old Apple ad?” — [REBUTTAL]
  • iOS devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) will *never* allow scripts. — [PREDICTION]
  • Paul Graham: Startups use technology to make technology. — [VIDEO]
  • Research on how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success — [STUDY]
  • Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]
  • A good prank in a museum — [VIDEO]
  • On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – REDUX — [ANALYSIS]
  • The United States of America is broke. – [VIDEO]
  • Islam threatens free speech in Europe. — [VIDEO]
  • On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – [ANALYSIS]
  • Nassim Taleb on deficits – [VIDEO]
  • Galloping North-American Buffalo – [IMAGES]
  • Don’t buy the Motorola Xoom: It is clunky. – [REVIEW]
  • Getting rid of inequality = Getting rid of risks and startups – [VIDEO]
  • Why the New Jersey governor vetoed the Internet gambling bill – [REPORT]
  • Michael Lewis on March 2009′s 60 Minutes – [VIDEO]
  • I support the Kochs. – [LINK]
  • Why does nobody trade the iPad prediction markets at InTrade? – [QUESTION]
  • iPad 2 – [VIDEO]
  • Albert of Monaco = Pinocchio – [ART]
  • Rand Paul on David Letterman – [VIDEO]
  • There is a bank run in South Korea right now. – [VIDEO]
  • Tapping prediction markets for foresight – [PAPER]
  • Ex-BetFair Mark Davies does not wear a tie anymore. – [VIDEO]
  • $42 million invested in WeatherBill – [P.R.]
  • American Civics Exchange – [STEALTH MODE]
  • Odds Futures – [LINK]
  • Knew The News – [LINK]
  • The Oscars 2011 & The Prediction Markets – [POST-MORTEM]
  • Fashion designer John Galliano is indeed a hard-core anti-semite. – [VIDEO]
  • BetFair Casino’s promotion “had not been administered fairly”. – [JUDGMENT]
  • The Anonymous = a great case of collective intelligence. – [REPORT]
  • Are prediction markets useful? – [ANALYSIS]
  • InTrade’s website redesign – [QUESTION]
  • Horace Dediu, smartphone market analyst – [PORTRAIT]
  • Simon Johnson says that the 2008 banking crisis was “private-sector driven”. – [VIDEO]
  • iPad stats – [REPORT]
  • Justin Wolfers didn’t inform the Freakonomics readers about InTrade’s mistake related to the contract statements of the ‘dictator departure markets’. – [RANT]
  • Midas Oracle is number one at Google for the Gadaffi search, above InTrade and Inkling. – [SNAPSHOT]
  • Arab Revolt Prediction Markets – {Predictions for next Arab country to revolt} – {Which country is the next ‘domino’?} – {What will happen in the Middle East & Northern Africa?} – [PREDICTION MARKET CHARTS]
  • Transitioning from 16-bit digital music to 24-bit digital music – [ADVANCED REPORT]
  • Soccer match fixing in Turkey – [AUDIO]
  • Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, speaks about “Predicting the Present with Search Engine Data”. – [VIDEO]
  • Robin Hanson’s prediction market hallucination is part of John Stossel’s dreamed libertarian paradise. – [VIDEO]
  • What WikiLeaks has told us: Great abuses of power, corruption, lies, and war crimes. – [ANALYSIS]
  • InTrade’s Brand-New Rules for Departure Markets – [MARKET CONTRACT STATEMENTS]
  • Winklevoss Syndrome = the false belief that an idea is ownable and that the real value of a business is strongly linked to the idea. – [ANALYSIS]
  • The Motley Fool = a bad predictor – [IDIOTS MASQUERADING AS FINANCIAL ANALYSTS]
  • IBM researchers discuss the technology behind Watson, the language-parsing machine that recently beat two of the world’s best players in Jeopardy. – [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel: The wisdom of crowds has been very overated. If you’re libertarian, you should be skeptical of the wisdom of crowds. – [SHOTGUN ANALYSIS]
  • Are we suffering from a lack of innovation? – [VIDEO]
  • Robin Hanson’s prediction markets on FOX Business’s John Stossel – [VIDEO]
  • 2011 Q1′s economic blogger survey – [POLL]
  • InTrade took ample time to settle the (redux) Mubarak contracts. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Ex-BetFair Mark Davies’s website has been assigned a PageRank of zero by Google. Why? – [QUESTION]
  • BOOKMAKER ODDS: Next country to topple leader. – [FORECASTS]
  • Does Apple deserve a 30% cut of iTunes in-app subscriptions? – [ANALYSIS]
  • Debunking Michael Lewis’ The Big Short – [ANALYSIS]
  • How big is the U.S. debt? – [VIDEO]
  • How the US government screws the NFL – [VIDEO]
  • PRECOGNITION PAPER: Daryl Bem et al. respond to Wagenmakers et al. – [BAYESIAN STUFF]
  • Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the constitutionality of Barak Obama’s health care law – [VIDEO]
  • The saga continues… Prince Albert II of Monaco sues his former US spymaster, Robert Eringer, over his blogging. – [THE TRUTH WILL PREVAIL.]
  • US-wiretapping of Russia via Sweden – [VIDEO]
  • In the last three years, America’s military and intelligence agencies have spent more than $125 million on computer models that are supposed to forecast political unrest. – [REPORT]
  • Why Adam Siegel’s CityPosh won’t take off – [PREDICTION]
  • InTrade traders are predicting that Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election. – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Peter Thiel makes fun of Warren Buffett’s dated investing. – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel on banned sport betting – [VIDEO]
  • 2 PDFs from the Kauffman Foundation – [STUDIES]
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney apologizes for the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction market scandal. – {Mubarak Market Unwound} – [VICTORY]
  • Internet-based encyclopedia Wikipedia is 10 years old. – [VIDEO]
  • You need the f*c*i**g Flash technology to see the Google Art Project. – [RANT]
  • The InTrade ‘Mubarak Departure’ scandal is on top of Google Blog Search. – [SCREENSHOT]
  • InTrade try to clean up the mess, without acknowledging their mistake. – [OPINION]
  • Apple vs. Amazon – [BUSINESS MODELS]
  • Elon Musk on Tesla Motors – [VIDEO]
  • Brad Pitt bought the movie rights for Michael Lewis’s The Big Short. – [VIDEO]
  • 30% of transactions done via an app go to Apple. –> Is that too much? – [DEBUNKING]
  • Why medical doctors *LOVE* Epocrates on their iPhone and iPad – [VIDEO]
  • The liberation of the Arab countries will ultimately lead to a war with Israel. – [PREDICTION]
  • Big trader furious at how InTrade settled the ‘Mubarak Departure’ prediction markets (even though the Egyptian dictator is still in power, at publication time) is suing their pants off using the German justice system as a springboard to get these Irish morons (namely John Delaney and Carl Wolfenden) to reckon their mistake. – [QUOTES]
  • My first impression of The Daily (on the iPad) is quite positive. – [VIDEO]
  • InTrade has just settled their ‘Mubarak Departure’ contracts (even though the Egyptian dictator is still at the helm of the country, at publication time). – #controversy – [CHARTS]
  • Under Larry Page’s helm, Google are finally getting to the realization that they have to code more iPhone / iPad apps.
  • UK-based Cella Energy has developed a synthetic fuel that could lead to US$1.50 per gallon gasoline. (And there’s no carbon emission, as the fuel is made of hydrogen.)
  • Blog commenters should be selected.
  • Conservative money is bad, and linked to greed, while liberal money is self-evidently philanthropic.
  • Digitalizing the US intelligence community – [VIDEO]
  • Hi Robin, can you list some innovations and inventions that have originated in the emerging world and cannot fairly be called “copying”? I am frankly having trouble.
  • Burton Malkiel on the theory of efficient markets and index funds. – [VIDEO]
  • Watch this one-minute video: Egyptian protesters film themselves with their smartphones, and then upload to YouTube. Who needs the traditional mass media, anymore? – [VIDEO]
  • Right brain, left brain – [VIDEO]
  • Why there might be something to Daryl Bem’s precognition paper – [VIDEO]
  • Ron Conway, the one and only – [VIDEO]
  • Why GroupOn is a fad – [VIDEO]
  • When is “censorship” on Wikipedia entries acceptable? – [VIDEO]
  • Red means Jason Ruspini and David Pennock should rent as opposed to buy. – [CHART]
  • Education is a bubble in a classic sense. To call something a bubble, it must be overpriced and there must be an intense belief in it.
  • CrowdPark = social betting – [VIDEO]
  • Why Tim Cook left Compaq in 1998 for Apple, even though it made little sense on paper (at the time, Apple was almost broke): He trusted his intuition just after five minutes into his interview with Apple CEO Steve Jobs, who can be very convincing when he hires. – [VIDEO]
  • Besides search, Google hasn’t had any mutant ideas, lately.
  • The 2010 Global Warming Exchange has been closed.
  • Trading on Inkling’s prediction markets – [VIDEO]
  • Welcome to the new Midas Oracle subscribers…
  • Amateurish financial forecasters beat Wall Street financial analysts.
  • Wall Street analysts’s view is too short term.
  • “Don’t hold focus groups and ask people what they think.”
  • 2010 –> IBM was granted 5,896 patents. –> Apple was granted 563 patents.
  • The story behind the meteoric rise of the ARM stock – [CHART]
  • Steven Johnson on KickStarter – [VIDEO]
  • U.S. futures regulators issued draft proposals to curb speculative trading in commodities, despite concerns that the regulators lack enough market data.
  • Prediction markets are unable to accurately predict long-term outcomes, and they have poor records for accuracy and reliability, all of which are crucial for enterprise adoption.
  • Steve Wozniak looks forward to the iPhone 4G LTE. – [VIDEO]
  • The New York Times readers generate hundreds of (smart) comments about Daryl Bem’s precognition paper.
  • Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.
  • Best Picture: The Social – [VIDEO]
  • Sarah Palin’s InTrade probabilistic probability… after the Tucson shooting – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Both WikiLeaks and Sea Shepherd are at war. I support both of them. And you should too. – [VIDEO + PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Too Late
  • 10 business models of 2010 – [PRESENTATION]
  • 10 Questions for Elon Musk – [VIDEO]
  • This guy invented the cell phone. Here’s how. – [VIDEO]
  • Julian Assange to be indicted for a federal crime in the United States? – [VIDEO]
  • How did liberty fare in 2010? – [VIDEO]
  • Only decerebrated idiots pay attention to John Battelle’s predictions.
  • Only decerebrated idiots pay attention to Forrester Research’s reports.
  • How Steven Johnson writes his essays / papers / articles / books… – [VIDEO]
  • Why you should discard reports about Android sales… –> It’s the usage that counts, not the sales. – [CHART]
  • Twitter’s Jack Dorsey – [VIDEO]
  • Robin Hanson on Singularity
  • Invention vs. Innovation — Idea vs. Execution
  • The Best Economics Blogs
  • Julian Assange interviewed by John Pilger – [VIDEO]
  • The contract is designed so that it is almost impossible not to break the Google rules.
  • Barack Obama re-election prediction market – [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]
  • Apple will be the number one platform for a long time from a developer perspective, they have gotten so many things right. And they know what they are doing and they call the shots.
  • John Tierney won a $5,000 bet with Matthew Simmons.
  • Sometimes, hard work doesn’t necessarily equal success. – [VIDEO]
  • New York cultural periodical the Village Voice has named @discographies, an anonymous Twitter account that publishes 140-character reviews of the life work of musicians and bands, as its music critic of the year.
  • A great website with plenty of videos about art
  • Circumcision of babies should be forbidden by law. – [VIDEO]
  • 10 questions for Ray Kurzweil – [VIDEO]
  • Julian Assange: “Sweden is the Saudi Arabia of feminism.”
  • New Caledonia – [VIDEO]
  • Why Tyler Cowen is wrong to be skeptical of Daryl Bem’s precognition paper.
  • Cantor Gaming
  • Keynes vs. Hayek on Central Banks
  • Steve Wozniak talks about the open Internet and net neutrality at the FCC. – [VIDEO]
  • Ray Kurzweil’s analysis of his own predictions is 146 pages long and uses the word “wrong” 10 times and the word “error” 2 times.
  • The agenda of the gay politicans in the US Congress – [VIDEO]
  • 3 links
  • John F. Kennedy (a.k.a. JFK) on WikiLeaks – [VIDEO]
  • J. Edgar Hoover asked the FBI to track Josephine Baker’s movements around the world because of a row she had in a NYC restaurant with a columnist who was Hoover’s best friend. – [VIDEO]
  • Fixed-Odds Betting Arbitrage
  • Can you imagine apps for the Apple TV?
  • A presentiment experiment done by Dean Radin, where the eye movement and pupil dilation of a subject are measured when she is looking at random calm or emotional pictures on a monitor. – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel: Top 10 politicians’s promises gone wrong – [VIDEO]
  • The Internet is full of harsh stories about BetFair “robbing” casino players over November’s “Happy Hour” promotion. – [VIDEO]
  • Prediction Markets (in blue) vs. Forecasting (in red) – [CHART]
  • Jeremy Levine’s StarStreet on CNN – [VIDEO]
  • Yossi Vardi’s version of the Wisdom Of Crowds – [VIDEO]
  • Did KickStarter just killed the angel investors?
  • Tesla Motors’s stock: +30% since Jim Cramer dissed it on CNBC. – [VIDEO]
  • Nassim Taleb says we will have soon another crisis that will make the current one looks like a picnic. – [VIDEO]
  • The abrupt closing of Yahoo’s Delicious and Google Wave sends a chilling message to users:
  • Gold and Real Interest Rates
  • If you need to contact me…
  • Betting @ BetFair remains a mediocre-quality publication —triple alas.
  • Entrepreneurs are more born than made. – [VIDEO]
  • Apples iPhone actually added $1.9 billion to the U.S. trade deficit with China last year.
  • The third result for “jew” on Google Search leads to an anti-semitic website. – [VIDEO]
  • Steve Blank is caught red-hand browsing the NASA, Drudge Report and Google News websites instead of listening to public comment during the California Coastal Commission session. – [VIDEO]
  • End the Fed – by Ron Paul – [VIDEO]
  • Jim Rogers on Ben Bernanke… –and it’s not pretty. – [VIDEO]
  • 3 links for this Wednesday nite
  • iPhone Patriot App
  • Cliff Lee’s shocking choice to take less money and join the Philadelphia Phillies surprised the InTrade traders, too.
  • Do we really need an X Prize for that? – [VIDEO]
  • Michael Moore is a damn socialist, but he is also a great social freedom fighter. – [VIDEO]
  • Analysts value the BetFair business at anywhere between £4.45 and £16 a share. Four out of five independent brokers rate the shares a ‘SELL’.
  • Artificial Intelligence… with a “G” inside
  • Predictive Modeling for Businesses
  • The doctrine that the world is made up of objects whose existence is independent of human consciousness turns out to be in conflict with quantum mechanics and with facts established by experiment.
  • The next time you read a futuristic prediction (or write one), ask yourself if it has fallen prey to one of these missteps:
  • InTrade are removing all trading and expiry fees.
  • TV documentary on WikiLeaks – [VIDEO]
  • A Rebel Without A Cause
  • Peter Thiel: Funding intensive technologies means accepting weird, strange, and singular, ideas. – [VIDEO]
  • For now, in most cases, companies should still focus their development efforts on Apple’s iOS first, with Android second.
  • How do you value art? ArtPrice builds up the extensive database for you. – [VIDEO]
  • Alison Balsom – Italian Concertos – [VIDEO]
  • If a woman is a bitch, or hysterical, or bloody-minded continually, then Sean Connery would slap her. – [VIDEO]
  • What is science? Are science and rationality the same thing? If science was something new, what sort of a new thing was science? – [VIDEO]
  • Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, and all the “Giving Pledge” billionaires, should rather do what Peter Thiel does –go investing their cash and/or (liquidated) fortune in futuristic projects. – [VIDEO]
  • Technology Review publishes an uncritical article on collective forecasting used in business. – {CrowdCast}
  • Why I am against those billionaires pledging to “give away” the majority of their wealth
  • Why you haven’t seen nothing yet when it comes to iOS games
  • Simon Johnson: The fiscal deal is irresponsible. – [VIDEO]
  • The problem that is Google
  • MediCare cheats the young. – MediCare is the biggest Ponzi scheme. – [VIDEO]
  • Why you should short-sell RIM
  • Quadrotor juggles ball. – [VIDEO]
  • Jim Rogers on CNBC Europe – [VIDEO]
  • Tron Legacy – Music by Daft Punk – Derezzed – [VIDEO HD]
  • Christo’s project over the Arkansas river in Colorado
  • Good Bloomberg stuff on GroupOn
  • Mark Zuckerberg and Ben Bernanke on 60 Minutes – [VIDEO]
  • Michael Lewis on the four sets of players in the subprime mortgage market who had the foresight and gumption to short the riskiest mortgage deals: Steve Eisman of FrontPoint, Greg Lippmann at Deutsche Bank, three partners at Cornwall Capital, and Michael Burry of Scion Capital – [VIDEO]
  • Jackson Pollock’s art is nonsense.
  • Collective Forecasting a la Robin Hanson – [SLIDES]
  • “The hacking of Google that forced the search engine to withdraw from mainland China was orchestrated by a senior member of the communist politburo, according to classified information sent by US diplomats to Hillary Clinton’s state department in Washington. The leading politician became hostile to Google after he searched his own name and found articles criticising him personally, leaked cables from the US embassy in Beijing say.”
  • Another great Peter Thiel interview – [AUDIO]
  • The redesign of the Gawker Media sites
  • Ron Paul: We need a WikiLeaks on the Federal Reserve. – [VIDEO]
  • Tyler Cowen on what happens when human neurodiversity meets information technology – [VIDEO]
  • James Gosling speaks. – [VIDEO]
  • Great interview of WordPress’s Matt Mullenweg
  • Jed Christiansen is taken hostage by the Soviets.
  • Why the neo-con term “freedom fries” never stuck – [VIDEO]
  • Rand Paul soon on US Senate = a good thing for the libertarian message (lot more TV appearances starting 2011) – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel on WikiLeaks – [VIDEO]
  • The Third International Conference on Prediction Markets
  • If you just wait long enough, everything happens.
  • Crisis of the States: Bankruptcy or Inflation – [VIDEO in French]
  • Why the iPad will continue to dominate the tablet market
  • Hans Rosling’s data visualization techniques… are… amazing. – [VIDEO]
  • Wolfy is cited FIVE TIMES in this prediction market story.
  • Dan Pink on motivation – Money (for mechanical tasks) – Autonomy, Mastery, Purpose (for cognitive tasks) – [VIDEO]
  • “Cool it” – Bjorn Lomborg on climate change (global warming?) – [VIDEO]
  • Ron Conway shamelessly plugs his latest investments. – [VIDEO]
  • Julian Assange: “So, as far as markets are concerned, I’m a libertarian, but I have enough expertise in politics and history to understand that a free market ends up as monopoly unless you force them to be free. WikiLeaks is designed to make capitalism more free and ethical.”
  • Peter Diamandis – The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself. – [VIDEO]
  • Libertarianism = favoring free enterprise over big government. – [VIDEO]
  • Engineering magazine pulverizes Ray Kurzweil into fine particules.
  • Zappos’s Tony Hsieh: Building a Formidable Brand – [VIDEO]
  • Check the comments on the “Death Spiral” post
  • The late Jack Valenti did support Larry Lessig’s Creative Commons. – [VIDEO]
  • The Death Spiral Of The Prediction Market Startups – [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel on innovation – [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel on technological progress – [VIDEO]
  • Ron Conway: I disagree with Don Valentine. I put people first, not market. – [VIDEO]
  • Prizes – [VIDEO]
  • Steve Blank: There is a fine line between hallucination and vision. – [VIDEO]
  • Jim Rogers: Ben Bernanke only knows about printing money. – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel: Socialism Almost Ruined Thanksgiving – [VIDEO]
  • Oprah incites the chicks to go buying an iPad 1 —and in February 2011, they’ll realize that what they really wanted is the iPad 2. – [VIDEO]
  • Come here to comment about what you’ve read on Odd Head about Uncle Sam asking for applied research on collective intelligence
  • Sequoia Capital’s Don Valentine: Target big markets. – [VIDEO]
  • What does this tell you about the state of the startup capital market?
  • Vinod Khosla: The pundits are incapable of forecasting the future. – [VIDEO]
  • How much are startup options worth?
  • SeaSteading on CBS Sunday Morning – [VIDEO]
  • The Steve Jobs litmus test
  • “The REAL lesson most investors should take away from the largest institutional insider-trading investigation in history is that competition in the global financial markets is so intense that it’s basically idiotic to trade.”
  • Masonomics
  • BetFair’s David Yu speaks. – [VIDEO]
  • Ron Conway: The people first — the idea and the market size second and third. – [VIDEO]
  • Vote now for a finalist for the MUSTACHED AMERICAN OF THE YEAR.
  • Remember Nigel Eccles of HubDub?
  • Sophari – Harnessing collective intelligence
  • Track the Bet is a sports betting analytics software which helps users manage their sports picks with multiple reports and graphs.
  • Predict X = Play-money prediction markets
  • SportsRiskIndex to provide sports-based risk management products to sports-related businesses
  • Technological change and asset returns
  • Big trends in VC land (super angels, etc.) – [VIDEO]
  • The gastronomic meal of the French has been recognized by Unesco. – [VIDEO]
  • Long article about Paul Graham in Forbes
  • By now, you’ve heard of that “feeling the future” paper, right? – [VIDEO]
  • Ron Paul on the TSA scandal – [VIDEO]
  • The sad tale of the prediction market startups
  • With friends like these…
  • Nothing great was created without irrational exuberance. – [VIDEO]
  • Yet another greatly insane Peter Thiel interview… – [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel describes how our entire civilization is predicated on accelerating technological change. – [VIDEO]
  • Peter Thiel says the U.S. may be facing several years of slow growth or stagnation. – [VIDEO]
  • Robert Eringer vs. Prince Albert of Monaco – [VIDEO]
  • Very interesting Peter Thiel interview. Watch. – [VIDEO]
  • Why Silicon Valley isn’t in the Boston area? – [VIDEO]
  • Steve Wozniak on the Early Days of Apple – Haas School – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel – The battle for the future (of America) – [VIDEO]
  • Justin Wolfers pumped up the shitty, play-money prediction exchange run by InTrade/WSJ.
  • BetFair trained a bunch of eagles and hawks for publicity at the 2010 Ryder Cup. – [PICTURES]
  • Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver
  • Mr T. is more bullish on gold than Mr Ruspini. – [VIDEO]
  • I Want Your Money. – [VIDEO]
  • BetFair set a price range for its initial public offering on the London Stock Exchange at $17.48 to $22.25 a share, valuing its equity at up to $2.35 billion.
  • U.S. regulators unveiled a series of proposed governance rules for derivatives clearinghouses and trading platforms that are designed to protect the market.
  • The latest on the BetFair float
  • Quants: The Alchemists of Wall Street – [VIDEO]
  • Sports Risk Index would allow you to hedge risks on sport prediction markets.
  • Jason Trost on BetFair: They haven’t innovated much, and they’re too pricey.
  • If prediction markets are such a powerful tool, then why aren’t we able to use them to solve [INSERT YOUR FAVORITE WORLD PROBLEM HERE]?
  • A somewhat simplistic, but nonetheless interesting, article in which the predictive quality of the BetFair market is slagged off, because it upsets their traditional form book study methods (by implication, of course, if they are right, then everybody could/should/would just follow the late money and win).
  • It is now legal in the UK to lay down your own horses. – [Industry Jurisprudence]
  • Ex-BetFair Mark Davies on sport corruption and betting fraud
  • Ex-BetFair Mark Davies defends betting in the wake of the latest sport corruption affair. – [VIDEO]
  • More Garbage Words: Social Security, “A Minor Fiscal Issue”
  • Social B.I. … or social B.S. … ?
  • Mark Thoma, Superficial Blogger
  • Ex-BetFair’s Mark Davies –> His new blog URL.
  • Things Jason Ruspini wanna know
  • Money does not motivate humans… – [VIDEO]
  • The latest Kauffman poll of economic bloggers
  • Midas Oracle also publishes a twitter feed, which has info you won’t get on this blog.
  • 3 years later, Mark Davies finally sees the light. — [Better late than never.]
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber @ Lumenogic
  • Hedging on Prediction Markets
  • Jason Ruspini, vice president of Conquest Capital, reveals the three indicators he uses to predict how high gold prices will go.
  • Chief Economists = PR People
  • Europe-based bettors would do better without the gambling monopolies.
  • Prediction Markets = Social Business Intelligence
  • Paul The Octopus can’t be a psychic –but his care taker could.
  • HuffPost on derivatives (and prediction markets)
  • [I]f [Paul The Octopus] had started with a €10 stake and bet it on all his picks [via BetFair or else], he would have made about €14,000.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald has laid off the entire staff of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX).
  • InTrade simulates event derivative trading on your iPhone.
  • Mark Davis [*] was not invited at the party celebrating the 10 years of BetFair.
  • David Pennock wants you to believe that InTrade needs Robin Hanson’s automated market maker.
  • CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine talks about “the cloud and the crowd”.
  • Cantor Fitzgerald becomes a bookmaker in Las Vegas.
  • Pollster John Zogby attacks statistician Nate Silver. — “You take other people’s polls, compare records for predictions, add in some purely arbitrary (and not transparent) weights, then make your own projections and rankings.”
  • Mark Davies leaves BetFair —but the SEO cretins stay.
  • Liberal politicians (sucking up to the Hollywood lobby) have managed to destroy one promising financial innovation applied to the movie business.
  • The Interdependence of Prices and Gold
  • What’s different about Predictalot?
  • Today marks the first time that Midas Oracle has aired a political ad.
  • BetFair: “Residents of Monaco are allow to use Betfair and all the accounts from Monaco are still opened.”
  • CFTC Takes Jurisdiction Over “Prediction Markets”.
  • Midas Oracle always tells the truth.
  • How to Make Money Playing Prediction Markets
  • US Justice asks Prince Albert of Monaco to give every detail about his 2002-2006 employment of Robert Eringer (a US citizen) as Chief Intelligence Officer (a.k.a. “spymaster”) of the Principality of Monaco.
  • Felix Salmon wins the ASA 2010 Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award
  • The value of prediction market journalism, which doesn’t produce any scoop, is zero.
  • Prof Michael Giberson still into prediction market manipulation
  • BetFair withdraws from France… and Monaco. – [UPDATED]
  • BREAKING: The CFTC approves MDEX’s real-money prediction markets on movie box office.
  • Jim Rogers on commodities, currencies, stocks, banks, emerging markets, etc.
  • InTrade co-founder’s brand-new newsletter on finance
  • Pre-IPO BetFair silences its PR chief Mark Davies.
  • The new French law on Internet betting and gambling – [VIDEO]
  • Kenneth Rogoff on the US economy going forward – [VIDEO]
  • Rand Paul – [VIDEO]
  • Nations Will Print Money, Go Bust, Go to War. –> We Are Doomed.
  • This is not a pipe. This is Muhammed.
  • According to InTrade, Rand Paul will be elected US Senator in November 2010 —Kentucky Edition. – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel – Gambling in America – [VIDEO]
  • CFTC: 3-2 in favor of approval of movie contracts —SO FAR.
  • What was said at the U.S. House Ways & Means Committee’s hearing on Internet gambling and betting – [VIDEO]
  • YouTube video shows wrong profile of BetFair’s Mark Davies.
  • Google Prediction API
  • Hollywood clashed with Wall Street on Wednesday at a government hearing about the potential sale of futures contracts linked to box office receipts of major motion pictures.
  • U.S. House Ways & Means Committee holding hearing on Internet gambling and betting – [VIDEO]
  • The Great Contemporary Art Bubble – [VIDEO]
  • Book Review: The Limits of Transparency
  • Real returns and gold
  • President Obama’s regulatory czar says that incentives, not top-down regulation, can make us do the right thing —and that includes slowing climate change.
  • Interview with BetFair’s Andrew Black – [VIDEO]
  • John Stossel explains why he’s all-in for legalizing gambling.
  • McDermott’s online gambling proposal hearing coming May 19, 2010 – [VIDEO]
  • The CFTC plans to hold a public hearing next week to examine the growing controversy surrounding a plan by two firms to offer futures contracts tied to box-office receipts.
  • ZateTrade Prediction Market
  • New York-based hedge fund Conquest Capital’s macro fund turned a 3.75 percent profit on Thursday, and ended the week up about 10 percent not including fees.
  • I highly recommend the Tyler Cowen podcast.
  • Every investment in film is gambling.
  • Felix Salmon’s hastily written NYT Op-Ed about the Cantor Exchange and MDEX
  • The election night on BetFair – [CHART]
  • BetFair App for iPhone only works for Great Britain and Ireland. – [SCREEN SHOTS]
  • Off The Chart
  • Robin Hanson bores his students with Futarchy. –> He is asked to apply his concept to Himself.
  • US Budget Crisis –> When?
  • BetFair’s guerilla marketing on General Election 2010 – [VIDEO]
  • The next British Prime Minister @ TED – [VIDEO]
  • Marcus Miller – TuTu
  • Midas Oracle is truly universal.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Chris Hibbert has been hired by Google.
  • Philippe Kahn: Luck has more importance for your career/startup than skills and hard work.
  • Former HSX website developer tells everything he knows about movie marketing.
  • If you are reading this Midas Oracle frontpage on your iPad, please feedback me on whether you saw the YouTube videos.
  • David Pennock’s buddy wants you to explore the Web with “Pivot”. – [VIDEO]
  • Max Keiser: Cantor Exchange and Media Derivatives Exchange would be an “insiders/traders’s paradise”.
  • All 3 British political leaders fell for the global warming scam.
  • Iowa Electronic Markets’s George Neumann on InTrade prediction markets for Lloyd Blankfein resignation: “it’s in bad taste”.
  • Prof Schuyler Moore made a good impression on US Representatives.
  • BETFAIR RETRACTS FROM THE FRENCH MARKET.
  • What the Cantor Exchange (HSX) and the Media Derivatives Exchange (MDEX) really said to the US Congress about movie futures (a.k.a. box-office derivatives) – [VIDEO]
  • Steve Jobs tells you to run a HTML5 website —without Flash.
  • WashPost: “The British will bet on anything.”
  • Risks pay off —sometimes. – [VIDEO]
  • The URLs of the UK’s General Election 2010
  • German Prediction Markets
  • Jason Ruspini has a past.
  • iPredict is a way to cheaply aggregate and quantify opinions on any factual question.
  • Solar activity and cosmic rays drive the Earth’s climate.
  • UK’s General Election 2010
  • Cantor Exchange and Trend Exchange defend the usefulness of movie hedging.
  • Professional analysts are 51% worse than amateur analysts…
  • CFTC approves the Cantor Exchange, but won’t approve its movie box-office prediction markets.
  • Okay to Play: Support i-Gaming
  • Convergence in online gaming and land-based gaming
  • How to publish on Midas Oracle
  • NewsFutures’s post mortem on the French elections
  • Odds on hung parliament in UK shorten after TV debate
  • CrowdCast @ Under the Radar 2010
  • Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods… and Jason Ruspini objects.
  • CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on the Trend Exchange and the Cantor Exchange’s movie box-office prediction markets
  • Why the CFTC won’t approve the Cantor Exchange and the Trend Exchange’s prediction markets on movie box office
  • Kaggle allows organizations to post their data and have it scrutinized by the world’s best statisticians.
  • CFTC approves box-office futures exchange —but might not approve its markets.
  • Movie business person will confess to Max Keiser that he/she traded on insider information.
  • “My bill will bring 100 percent transparency to our financial markets, prevent future bailouts and, most importantly, protect Main Street.”
  • Why Hollywood Doesn’t Want You Betting on Hollywood
  • HubDub is dead, but we loved it.
  • BetFair’s political prediction markets on the BBC – [VIDEO]
  • U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln said she would introduce a bill requiring centralized exchange for trading of all derivative contracts.
  • Aljazeera TV promotes the lie that prediction markets are “eerily accurate”, sucking up to InTrade’s PR and Hanson’s spinning. – [VIDEO]
  • Prediction Market Video – [VIDEO]
  • “It is clear that the MPAA is not familiar with the futures markets or the regulatory framework within which they operate.”
  • Allegations about Cantor Fitzgerald, the Hollywood Stock Exchange and the Cantor Exchange
  • Market manipulation in movie business futures
  • Opponents of real-money prediction markets are strong and powerful.
  • Short take on the new gambling laws in France
  • Online gambling in the UK tightened up
  • My 2 minutes (and 4 seconds) of fame – [VIDEO]
  • Twitter is more predictive than the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). – [RESEARCH]
  • Online gambling regulation: players two, casinos nil. And about time, too.
  • Important correction
  • Mike Robb takes charge of the BetFair Bureau at New York.
  • Wow, Pennock Senior is *much* crazier than Pennock Junior.
  • Prediction markets are already on the iPad via Safari (Apple’s web browser). Native apps to come? – [VIDEO]
  • Prediction Markets APIs
  • Are you a British trader who bets on UK politics at BetFair?
  • Inkling Markets in BusinessWeek
  • Speculating and hedging on BetFair’s sports prediction markets
  • 6 new prediction market papers are coming out soon.
  • Peter Schiff for President
  • BetFair’s Mark Davies (the Prince of betting exchange PR) has just gotten a second omelet in the face.
  • The Motion Picture Association Of America (MPAA) comes out as fiercely against movie business futures.
  • The UK political prediction markets are starting to get fun.
  • MAT FOGARTY FOR PRESIDENT
  • The sudden dip in March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market was an intentional coup.
  • Allegedly, an idiot pressed the wrong button on March 16′s InTrade ObamaCare prediction market. Do you buy it?
  • UK political prediction markets at Smarkets
  • InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.
  • Paul Krugman Makes a Boo Boo.
  • Michael Lewis on Imus – [VIDEO]
  • Does InTrade participate on its 2012 Republication Nomination prediction markets?
  • Health Care Reform Explained
  • BetFair’s Mark Davis on Internet gambling regulations in the UK
  • The Real Arithmetic Of The Health Care Reform
  • The Tragedy Of Alex Tabarrok
  • “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
  • Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?
  • What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…
  • 2010 Economics Bloggers Forum
  • Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
  • When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
  • Selling Us Short: The Limits of Markets (and Governments) – Joe Stiglitz and Jim Chanos – [VIDEO]
  • MAX KEISER FOR PRESIDENT… of Greece
  • History of BetFair, from the concept to the startup —in Andrew Black and Edward Wray’s own words
  • The stock market is stochastic.
  • BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.
  • Bookmaker laying a la BetFair
  • BetFair App for the iPhone and the iPad –> BetFair Rattle
  • “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”
  • OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
  • We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.
  • Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.
  • What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?
  • CrowdCast + SAP
  • Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot
  • Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?
  • Predictalot is a combinatorial prediction exchange.
  • Michael Lewis on CBS 60 Minutes: How the capitalism was almost destroyed by the capitalists in the fall of 2008 – [VIDEO]
  • Peter Schiff on CNBC Fast Money – [VIDEO]
  • Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets
  • Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions

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