Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

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  • A brand-new NewsFutures public prediction exchange in the fall
  • Dawn Tevekelian Keller wants to convince your boss to adopt enterprise prediction markets.
  • The anonymity of “Wiser Than The Crowd” will expire soon.
  • The Pop Sci Prediction Exchange — 2007–2009
  • HedgeStreet morphs into Nadex.
  • The New Options Market
  • BetFair.net
  • Smarkets want to take on BetFair.
  • Collective intelligence website Hunch is doing pretty well.
  • Nate Silver against the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (UIGEA)
  • Betdaq’s financials
  • How confidential is your confidential data in the hands of online payment solutions? Is Moneybookers fully in tune with the law?
  • The OpenFund aims to help (Greek) entrepreneurs with fresh ideas to jumpstart their business.
  • Bets in plain (but verbose) (British) English
  • Scholarly journals are not so open.
  • Andrew Goldberg’s wrap-up on the InTrade prediction markets
  • A new blog on InTrade’s prediction markets: Prediction (Market) Insights
  • BetFair’s Mark Davies will advise the UK government on sports betting integrity.
  • Is BetFair becoming too complicated?
  • June 28’s BetFair millionaire story (about Elliott Short) in the News Of The World was total bullshit.
  • June 28’s BetFair millionaire story (about Elliott Short) in the News Of The World
  • BetFair is going to make money in America…
  • Behind Nigel Eccles (of HubDub fame), the remains of the West Pier in Brighton, England.
  • Why don’t they use prediction markets to settle their Community Reinvestment Act dispute?
  • Our industry needs a third Wikipedia page.
  • Robin Hanson: My best idea was prediction markets.
  • In most cases, the team (including the best predictors) outshines the best predictor working alone.
  • BetFair’s crappy chart widgets
  • Food, Inc. — Yet another movie for Lance Fortnow’s eco-daughter
  • CrowdCast has 11 employees.
  • Inkling Markets and HubDub in TechCrunch
  • Data Analysis Of The Day — Sex Scandal Edition
  • FAIL
  • Usability take of the day for collective forecasters
  • The CrowdCast truth that Robin Hanson would debunk if Our Master Of All Universes were not so obsessed with signalling
  • CrowdCast by Google
  • CrowdCast in the New York Times
  • CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
  • More info about CrowdCast’s brand-new collective forecasting mechanism in my next post –suspense, suspense…
  • Chris Pirillo on HubDub’s prediction markets
  • Andrew Gelman makes more sense than Robin Hanson.
  • James Surowiekci snubs Robin Hanson, and, in return, Robin Hanson mocks James Surowiekci.
  • The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of FaceBook, a Tale of Sex, Money, Genius and Betrayal
  • BREAKING NEWS: THE DARK AGE IS OFFICIALLY OVER.
  • Andrew Gelman teaches a valuable lesson to Robin Hanson: Quit bragging about your high IQ, man.
  • WordPress blog hacked: What to do, now?
  • Wimbledon Betting Markets
  • Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
  • Paul Saffo – Effective Forecasting
  • Changing the world thru organic marketing and more objective predictions?
  • eLab eXchange – Will Twitter Rule the World?
  • Accurate prediction markets
  • The Automated Economy — by David Pennock
  • Koleman Strumpf on how weaker copyright protection benefits society
  • David Pennock on The Automated Economy
  • Why did Brad DeLong pick on our Eric Zitzewitz?
  • How to Circumvent an Internet Proxy
  • Type “GE Imagination Market” in Google, and you’ll see prediction market journalism, *first* —and, after that, the spin done by the companies in question.
  • Eric Zitzewitz wanna bet with Brad DeLong.
  • BetFair and Yahoo! are not part of the World Wide Web Consortium — but Google is in.
  • Is General Electric Imagination Market a joke?
  • Hunch = Collective intelligence tool for decision-making
  • The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead.
  • What Jed Christiansen should avoid at Cambridge University
  • Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?
  • Yahoo! Confab Kaput
  • At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets.
  • Help me beating David Pennock
  • This month, the Supreme Court agreed to reconsider what can be patented.
  • More about prediction markets
  • Eric Crampton’s avatar at Twitter
  • 2 Japanese busted with $134 *BILLION* in US Bonds at Swiss border
  • Adam Siegel looks like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
  • Judging things or people based on the vague notion of *intent*…
  • Get your FaceBook name. –> www.facebook.com/username/
  • Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBSG): No more gambling and betting transactions in The Netherlands and Switzerland.
  • Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets
  • The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets
  • Lance Fortnow’s daughter loved it, so David Pennock’s daughter will love it too.
  • What are the pros and cons about applying prediction markets in Federal Government (e.g. DoD, FAA, DHS) for research and acquisition of systems (e.g. IT, networking, wireless)?
  • Go trading enterprise prediction markets… if you want to meet the boss.
  • The Daily Chuck = the best blog on prediction markets
  • Why is the web traffic surging?
  • The Freakonomics song
  • This post is a (also) test.
  • The web traffic to Midas Oracle is exploding.
  • North American Derivatives Exchange = Nadex = Ex-HedgeStreet
  • HOME = The Earth From Above
  • HedgeStreet becomes Nadex.
  • Crackdown on Internet gambling and betting
  • Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine are speaking at Enterprise 2.0 in Boston.
  • Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
  • Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…
  • Download HOME, Yann Arthus-Bertrand’s film — The Earth From Above
  • Guess who is on Twitter.
  • David Pennock’s boss is clueless.
  • Your Internet presence should be centered around your own Internet site, primarily.
  • Google Wonder Wheel on Collective Forecasting
  • Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
  • Do download HOME (Yann Arthus-Bertrand’s film) before it is too late.
  • Google does credit Robin Hanson for “collective forecasting”.
  • Midas Oracle has a de facto monopoly on “collective forecasting”.
  • The economics crisis is over when CEOs indulge in pantagruelic meals.
  • Patrick Young (InTrade’s fifth Beatle) still can’t figure out the industry he helped created.
  • The Future of Media: 2009
  • Very useful tools for following on blog posts
  • Wanna make money on Midas Oracle?
  • HubDub on CNN — 30 seconds into
  • InTrade’s fifth Beatle talks (very fast) about the financial markets.
  • Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.
  • In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.
  • ROBIN HANSON HAS RENOUNCED TO RULE THE UNIVERSE VIA PREDICTION MARKETS.
  • Morons and Non-Morons — Sheep and Wolves
  • *Years* later, the BetFair blogs are still *not* taking off.
  • 300 happy people… minus one imbecile
  • “Collective Forecasting”… becomes officially our second industry keyword starting today —I decreeted that after a good slurp of Bordeaux wine.
  • InTrade daily prediction market wrapup
  • So much for Prof Panos and his data religion
  • The British prime minister will leave office this month —dixit the BetFair traders.
  • Why Google don’t want to hire research scientist David Pennock
  • Great software packages
  • Global Foresight
  • Our prediction market community is strong because our members are open.
  • Wiser than the IRS?
  • Sheep and Wolves
  • Were prediction markets useless during the H1N1 breakout?
  • There are not enough big active traders on InTrade.
  • Google Squared is a big piece of crap.
  • Prediction Markets for Valuing Private Companies
  • BetFair has made a voluntary contribution to the Levy Board.
  • BetFair’s Memoranda of Understanding benefits both bettors and sports.
  • What do prediction markets say about unemployment and swine flu in Australia?
  • A new glimpse into the revamped Overcoming Bias
  • Are good blogs driven by author personalities or by well drilled topics?
  • What makes a good blog, and how much can you value a popular blog?
  • Vernon Smith’s publisher
  • Prediction markets are a zero-sum game.
  • Social networking tool Spigit goes enteprise prediction markets.
  • Robin Hanson wants to see only one emerging head —his.
  • ROBIN HANSON CENSORS A CONTRADICTOR.
  • Inside Venture as an alternative to IPOs.
  • IBM = a bunch of idiots
  • The best Internet strategy
  • Traded bets — a la Robin Hanson
  • They love coding too much.
  • Professor Richard Wiseman misunderstands both the (real) wisdom of crowds and the (hypothetical) mechanism of precognition.
  • Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
  • Bing (the brand-new search engine from the Evil Empire) is a big piece of shit.
  • The MIT CCI removes Robin Hanson.
  • NewsFutures is using Red Hat Enterprise Linux.
  • The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.
  • What prediction market people should know about Google Wave
  • Max Keiser interviews financial economist and historian Michael Hudson.
  • Prof Panos hates it when I point to a prediction market “failure”.
  • Why I unsubscribed to John Delaney (InTrade) and Jed Christiansen at Twitter
  • Some thougths about Amazon.com
  • Twitter drove more traffic to Midas Oracle than Marginal Revolution (who have linked to us) did —this past week.
  • Rich Jaycobs was right.
  • Wikipedia is cracking down on self-serving edits.
  • Institutional Decision Analysis
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber coined the term “collective forecasting”… Robin Hanson popularized it…
  • Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach
  • Google PageRank Update
  • Mobile site review: BetFair
  • IncentAlign – Harness the power of free markets for your firm…
  • Imaginatik is the leading provider of collaborative innovation and enterprise crowdsourcing solutions.
  • In which I respectfully disagree with Patri Friedman
  • Patenting the prediction markets?
  • If they stole Robin Hanson’s ideas on prediction markets, does it mean that his ideas are good?
  • Are prediction markets really useful to *you*?
  • Robin Hanson has bugged us over the last week-end to insist we should use the NewsFutures-coined term “collective forecasting”, and guess what I spot as a tagline on his blog.
  • Prediction markets must have sufficient information completeness to accurately predict outcomes with a reasonable degree of certainty.
  • La patience a ses limites.
  • What’s next for the Swine Flu (H1N1) alert level: 4 or 6?
  • Even when well calibrated, prediction markets can be useless, nevertheless.
  • Robin Hanson has overhauled his (ex-group) blog.
  • MicroSoft have patented the prediction markets.
  • You Bet: a bad book about BetFair
  • Prediction markets have failed at forecasting correctly an important event —*once again*.
  • NewsFutures OKays “collective forecasting”.
  • Intrade Meltdown
  • What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about collective forecasting
  • Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
  • Predicting vs. Forecasting
  • Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”
  • Could prediction markets help solve a crime?
  • Let’s create a prediction market…
  • What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”
  • Forecasting or Predicting?
  • Why reporting stuff about prediction markets means bugging the prediction market people till they spit the truth finally
  • Why BetFair and InTrade as media can’t be trusted
  • Twine on prediction markets
  • Collective Forecasting, Anyone?
  • Wall Street goes open source…
  • Feed My Inbox = RSS to Email
  • Real-time prediction market price quotes on your blog
  • Collective Intelligence That Predicts
  • Peer-to-peer lending is crossing the SEC’s hair.
  • Was Larry King a horse racing betting addict in the late 60s and early 70s?
  • Confusing the prediction markets with the non-trading collective intelligence solutions
  • IndiaPX – India’s Prediction Market
  • Timetric is a service for storing, searching, graphing and publishing the world’s statistical data.
  • Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.
  • NewsFutures’s software and consulting on enterprise prediction markets
  • Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?
  • I typed “predictions” in Wolfram Alpha, and I got that… among other things.
  • How come prediction exchanges are ranking so low for American Idol?
  • Internet Business Models
  • The prediction market prices in the search results
  • Both Google and the FTC will monitor the credibility of your prediction market blog.
  • VIDEO: Cass Sunstein confirmation hearing
  • A History of Betfair
  • American Idol: The final two
  • Some interesting comments on Midas Oracle
  • How to see the brand-new favicon of Midas Oracle
  • Free Prediction Market Data — Trading Fees
  • Great cubicles… for our great prediction market startups
  • InTrade are asking its 700 most active traders to help them improve InTrade.
  • Chris Masse appears in a fly-by analogy.
  • BirdBet = Tiny bets over Twitter
  • Twitter and the prediction markets
  • Mine is bigger and longer.
  • Google Wonder Wheel – Prediction Markets
  • Keeping an eye on those Yahoo! research scientists
  • Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?
  • Will any prediction market startup surge like *that*?
  • Wiser Than James Surowiecki
  • Making money on the spreading (or taming) of H1N1
  • WEBCAST: Cass Sunstein confirmation hearing
  • BetFair are impermeable to the prediction market approach.
  • BetFair is at war with the Dutch government.
  • The liability of Betfair as regarding its forum
  • The HubDub Team
  • Don’t let others dissuade you to create a prediction market startup.
  • “Turning Probabilities into Profits”
  • You should subscribe to Midas Oracle.
  • INKLING MARKETS IS NOW ON THE *FIRST* PAGE OF GOOGLE FOR “PREDICTION MARKETS”.
  • INKLING MARKETS HAS SOLVED THE PREDICTION MARKET ADOPTION PROBLEMATIC.
  • Computational Complexity + Statistical Modeling
  • No books on prediction markets published in 2008?
  • Who is Ms. Hildebrandt and what does she want?
  • Google, Competition and Openness
  • Search Engine Optimization: Who Is The Best?
  • Transcapitalist
  • The new InTrade has integrated HubDub’s social innovations.
  • Self-fulling prophecy, anyone?
  • The Senate hearings about the future of journalism
  • Google, Yahoo, Microsoft Want to Legalize For-Money Prediction Markets.
  • Midas Oracle Comment Policy
  • OpenID on Midas Oracle
  • The Fox… and the Hedgehog
  • Panos Ipeirotis = InTrade’s digital scribe
  • President Barack Obama’s fiscal 2010 budget request would give federal securities and commodities regulators additional resources to investigate fraud and manipulation in the financial markets.
  • Inkling Administrator Conference is live on Twitter.
  • Inkling Administrator Conference on May 7th, 2009, in Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.
  • The 80 Best WordPress Plugins
  • No prediction market archives on the Web = No search engines for prediction market data
  • Business Models
  • Advanced Twitter Search
  • P2 = a revolution in blogging
  • “If prediction markets are not consistently more accurate than other means of forecasting, they will never have a chance in the business world.”
  • Enterprise prediction markets have *no* benefits for businesses.
  • TOTAL DESTRUCTION
  • Public prediction market operator InTrade raises US$3.5m.
  • What prediction markets can learn from Twitter — REDUX
  • Prediction Markets on Midas Oracle
  • The horse that Steve Levitt predicted would finish last… actually *won* the Kentucky Derby.
  • Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week
  • What prediction markets can learn from Twitter
  • The Twitter Book
  • Twitter for Business
  • The usage of Twitter by Midas Oracle —so far
  • Using prediction markets to selecting the best ideas as opposed to judging accuracy of predictions on measurable outcomes?
  • MicroSoft joins Yahoo! and Google in lobbying the CFTC for private event derivative markets.
  • “Trading is a game —and we do the forecast!”
  • Midas Oracle now on Twitter.
  • A search engine for the prediction market prices/probabilities (and other forecasting data)?
  • They had difficulty defining BetFair.
  • Barack Obama has *already* turned America into France, IMHO.
  • Andrew Gelman’s new book is for the Nate Silver wannabes.
  • Marketing expert Seth Godin recommends that you don’t Twitter.
  • Could Google Have Caught Swine Flu (a.k.a. Mexican Flu, or H1N1) Early?
  • Interview of BetFair’s Mark Davies
  • A quick-fire fantasy baseball game where you get all the excitement of fantasy league with none of the time committment
  • Tomorrow Matters: Ignoring the Future is Undermining the Present.
  • The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.
  • Prediction Market Orphans
  • Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software
  • There is an apetite for socially valuable predictions and forecasts, out there.
  • You should unsubscribe to Midas Oracle .COM.
  • Betfair and the notion of a global exchange
  • Simpler Input Mechanisms
  • Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
  • Journal of Predictions Markets: Special Issue on Corporate Applications
  • Vertical Media vs. Prediction Markets vs. Mass Media
  • Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises – TED 2009
  • Google users are digging around to get the probability of a Swine Flu pandemy.
  • A good blog that might be of interest to the prediction market people (you)
  • “Building an exchange is challenging. Be patient. It is complex. It will take time. The retail derivatives market has a huge future.”
  • Does Russell Andersson misrepresent himself on LinkedIn?
  • P.T. Barnum said, “All publicity is good publicity”. Is that true?
  • “Most graduate programs in American universities produce a product for which there is no market (candidates for teaching positions that do not exist) and develop skills for which there is diminishing demand (research in subfields within subfields and publication in journals read by no one other than a few like-minded colleagues), all at a rapidly rising cost (sometimes well over $100,000 in student loans).”
  • Get Rich Quick Thanks To InTrade
  • Swine Flu Prediction Markets
  • McKinsey on prediction markets?
  • The benefits of information aggregation mechanisms (IAMs), which encompass (enterprise) prediction markets, have been greatly exaggerated.
  • Great leaders’ personality type
  • High-Frequency Trading
  • A New Chance for Online Gambling in the U.S.
  • Why EPM consulting is still a pretty evangelical business.
  • Statement about Midas Oracle
  • Questions about the e-mailing list of the Prediction Market Industry Association
  • Golf Humor
  • George Mason University is *not* in the top 50 graduate schools of economics.
  • Blogging Against The Hype
  • Science Prediction Markets — French Edition
  • Nate Silver at TED 2009: How does race affect votes?
  • CrowdCast want to hire the world.
  • Midas Oracle is in re-construction.
  • Did Midas Oracle (re)-publish the picture of Russell Andersson without Russell Andersson’s express “consent”?
  • The Crisis of Credit Visualized
  • Smarkets want to attract bettors that are (allegedly) scared to death by BetFair’s complexity.
  • Inkling Administrator Conference on May 7th, 2009, in Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.
  • Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom
  • Besides the street consensus line, we should work out on a prediction market consensus line.
  • WordPress theme P2 by Automattic
  • Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008
  • Free SEO advice for your blog or site
  • The best LinkedIn groups
  • Gartner: Enterprise prediction markets are between 5 and 10 years away from mainstream adoption —if ever they take off one day (taking into account that their benefit is “moderate” and that early users are “disillusioned”).
  • eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic?
  • The best TED TALKS video —ever
  • BetFair in the USA — Problematic + Solutions
  • Amazing smart little things… that will *never* make it to the market.
  • Global Horse Race Betting Exchange
  • Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.”
  • Mike Smithson’s Political Betting is a success.
  • BetFair has a profile at LinkedIn.
  • An excellent blog on the music industry
  • On the Internet, there is always a way around.
  • Get a Vanity URL for your Google Profile Now.
  • Sometimes, the market-generated predictions are a lot better, and sometimes they’re just marginally better. Sometimes, they’re *worse* than the current forecast.
  • Are you opening a brand-new prediction exchange?
  • Free content Vs. Paid content + The blogging journalists…
  • Charles Polk wants to go to Mars.
  • Does information economics apply to prediction markets?
  • 2,217 people were exposed to the “truth” on prediction markets…
  • Robert Shiller: Insurance, hedging, risk management, efficiency, etc.
  • The Wikipedia community is voting on migration to a new (anti)-copyright license.
  • Eric Crampton blogs…
  • Google’s Marissa Mayer talks at Stanford.
  • Other than AdWords, advertising does not work on the Web.
  • The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets
  • When you ask for money, you get advice. And when you ask for advice, you might get money.
  • Did the use of enterprise prediction markets by HP impress you?
  • How to kill Google’s (alledged) monopoly? = How to steal the collective intelligence fire from Google?
  • Max Keiser: “Je suis un artiste incompris.”
  • The (new) Internet business models
  • Will E-Commerce Sales increase from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009?
  • Why it is better to pitch Midas Oracle than the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times if you have prediction market stuff to push out
  • A young Hanson fanboy tries to build a new civilization that would float somewhere on the Ocean, far away from the supremacy of law… and, in the process, lashes out at his like-minded libertarian fellows operating in think tanks and political parties.
  • Internet Business Models — Music Edition
  • Predicting the Present with Google Trends
  • Seesmic Desktop helps us manage the monitoring of prediction market chattering over social media.
  • Why HubDub won: Google loves HubDub, and the Google users love what HubDub produces.
  • The Exhaustive Listing of Business Models for Making Money over the Internet
  • Pirate My Film .com – Finance Yourself
  • The Science Of Entrepreneurship
  • How to deal with bombastic blogs
  • They wonder what happened to TradeSports, they question Google, and Google sends them to Midas Oracle (and not InTrade or Overcoming Whatever) —because only Midas Oracle will tell them *the truth* about prediction markets.
  • How To Build A Product With Your Community
  • Chris Anderson of Wired Magazine & The Long Tail on Free: The four business models
  • How do BetFair market betting to the Internauts?
  • Expectation Propagation
  • BetFair ToolBar for FireFox
  • The 2 abominable organizations of the week
  • Ten people are bidding on a stock at 90, while 100 people are offering to sell it at 91. What price is the next trade?
  • Prediction markets about science and technology
  • Reality bites.
  • Prediction markets in the pharmaceutical industry
  • Professors as circus animals
  • PartyGaming PLC said Tuesday it has reached a non-prosecution agreement with U.S. authorities over its defunct operations there, with the online gambling group agreeing to pay a $105 million… “fee”.
  • They love to badmouth *the people*…
  • “The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it.”
  • Inkling Markets for the Apple iPhone
  • Connect With Fans (CwF) + Reason To Buy (RtB) = The Business Model ($$$$)
  • Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town of L’Aquila, Italia, a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor’s anger.
  • Wrong Tomorrow Here today
  • Great visual (and conference) from the Cato Institute
  • Tyler Cowen: “Blogging is not for everyone.”
  • Paul Hewitt on enterprise prediction markets
  • How to make great use of the LinkedIn recommendation system
  • “Entrepreneur” is a French word.
  • If prediction market advocates are so confident, why aren’t their claims more specific?
  • Pat Metheny Radio
  • The software I use on my MacBook Pro 17″
  • Wikipedia-style collective Intelligence didn’t kill Google Web Search.
  • BetFair’s co-founder is fed up with betting on horses. He has withdrawn most of his money from his BetFair account.
  • Tips for Google Reader
  • Yet another reason to buy Macintosh computers
  • The Art Of Prediction
  • Delicious loves InTrade and Inkling.
  • The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy
  • GreaseMonkey scripts for prediction markets?
  • Wisdom of Crowds… or… Folly of Crowds…?…
  • A strategic approach for organizations which are using Twitter to connect with their audiences, developed by Ogilvy’s 360 Degree Digital Influence group.
  • How the bandwagon wrecked the wisdom of market crowds
  • Gexid starts off some pilot projects with Economist Intelligence Unit in Germany.
  • Bursting the enterprise prediction market bubble
  • If prediction markets are so good at forecasting, why aren’t they being used much more widely?
  • We will know very soon whether Leslie Fine has what it takes.
  • James Surowiecki’s Wisdom Of Crowds at TED 2008
  • Kay-Yut Chen of HP Labs + Mat Fogarty of CrowdCast
  • 2009’s best April Fool joke in the field of prediction markets
  • OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Midas Oracle joins The Economist to bring prediction markets to the masses.
  • How the love for prediction markets saved Jed Christiansen from injury (and maybe death)
  • Prediction Markets on your Mobile Phone
  • Guide for Bloggers and Non-Profit Organizations About Writing With Libel in Mind
  • (Enterprise) Blogging + (Enterprise) Prediction Markets
  • InTrade’s prediction markets on skyscrapers
  • Wanna know what Nate Silver said about prediction markets at SxSW 2009?
  • Microgaming poker trouble: $5,300,000 owed to players of failed licensee, and a deafening silence from the oldest software provider in the business
  • How to join Midas Oracle —and why.
  • The Washington state legislature might change the law specifically to put Betcha out of business.
  • Collective intelligence killed a part of MicroSoft.
  • Get Rich Quick — InTrade’s new marketing trick
  • Il n’est jamais trop tard pour bien faire, Emile.
  • The “BBC host” (and conspiracy theorist) whom Matt Drudge was talking about… that was… (glurp!)… our bombastic Max Keiser.
  • My Macintosh MacBook Pro 17″
  • George Mason, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers didn’t make the list.
  • Should there be a Prediction Market Institute?
  • The Malta LGA and the Alderney AGCC at the London ICE: no answers and nobody available.
  • The European Union put legal and ethical BetFair in the same bag as the black ducklings of Internet betting and gambling.
  • Tyler Cowen is a wise man.
  • Why (public and enterprise) prediction markets need cloud computing
  • THE BETFAIR WEBSITE BLACKLISTED IN AUSTRALIA BY THE GOVERNMENT
  • Finally, a professor of economics who has style…
  • Prediction Science
  • Who is Charles Plott and what does he want?
  • iPhone app that lets you write posts on your WordPress blog
  • Max Keiser has now a blog —powered by WordPress, what else.
  • Don’t believe the hype.
  • How to leverage Midas Oracle to get visitors for your prediction market website
  • Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.
  • Midas Oracle is #1… —far above Yahoo! News.
  • Scott Page interview
  • That’s a good one.
  • Who needs pundits’ track records when we have prediction markets?
  • Midas Oracle reads the interviews of the exchange executives… —so you don’t have to.
  • Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?
  • WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.
  • GET RICH QUICK BY EXPLOITING WEATHERBILL’S BUG.
  • American Civics Exchange… a little update
  • Will enterprise prediction markets ever really take off? — Now, *my* answer.
  • Mike Linksvayer (middle of the shot) didn’t put on a tie to receive his (deserved) award… and Richard Stallman’s hairdress looks like South Vietnam in the sixties, just after the spraying of Agent Orange and all the bombing.
  • Last week, nobody knew anything about the American Civics Exchange…
  • Did the CFTC relax its ECPs requirement for eBOTs?
  • The cable television commentator Larry Kudlow said that although a Senate campaign had been a flattering idea, “it was never a serious proposition.”
  • Nostradamical.com — 3 months later, they are doing fine.
  • Patrick Young = The InTrade co-founder you never heard about
  • Prof Andrew McAfee steals predictive info from NewsFutures, and beats his students with it.
  • Excellent industry analysis of YouBet.com
  • Will Midas Oracle find a business model and make money, one day?
  • PredictMarkets
  • American Civics Exchange = CFTC-regulated Exempt Board of Trade
  • Go vote for Nate Silver on the Time.com website…
  • 250 members of the LinkedIn group on prediction markets
  • The world’s #1 resource on enterprise prediction markets
  • Lights! Camera! Futures trading! Cantor Exchange!
  • Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition
  • Internet betting and prediction markets on the Apple iPhone and the Google Android
  • Statistician and econometrician Nate Silver is going to write up a book on… SUSPENSE, SUSPENSE… not on statistics, not on econometrics… on prediction markets.
  • Scrutinizing InTrade’s financial statement for 2008 — Part II
  • “The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication it’s too complicated.”
  • Midas Oracle tells the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
  • Blame the messy CEO —don’t blame the media.
  • Happy Saint Patrick Day to all the InTrade-TradeSports traders…!!…
  • HubDub: “If you sign up a friend and he/she wins a prize, then you win the same prize.”
  • Scrutinizing InTrade’s financial statement for 2008
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney: “Midas Oracle is welcome to publish our financials. I am glad that bombastic gadfly did it.”
  • InTrade recorded a loss after taxation of $799,253 in 2007–2008.
  • InTrade’s financials: Where is the note #12?
  • Why did HubDub’s Nigel Eccles go to SXSW?
  • Nate Silver
  • Google on Charlie Rose
  • 2010 US congressional elections + The next UK general elections
  • Will prediction markets ever really take off?
  • The Blog Of The Day
  • HubDub’s Nigel Eccles thumbs his nose at Nate Silver.
  • TradeSmarter
  • Make a Prediction — Usability Edition
  • Enterprise prediction markets… Where are the case studies?
  • Who did it?
  • Dave, was it *you*?
  • John Stewart unloads on CNBC’s Jim Cramer.
  • The attacker was from Nashville, Tennesse.
  • It was *not* San Francisco-based Mat Fogarty who did it… He was too busy making money.
  • You can have fun and earn easy money on HubDub… if you know who did it… or if you think that he/she will get away with it.
  • How to set Reverse IP Lookup to anything that you like (or dislike, should I say, in this case)… including a NewsFutures server that does not exist in reality…!!!…
  • Another day… and yet another lie from the BetFair SEO artists…
  • InTrade’s Accounts and Balance Sheets — 2007 and 2008
  • The 6 little things David Pennock didn’t tell you about the Prediction Market Institute
  • How to represent soccer bets visually
  • Some news about the e-mailing list on prediction markets
  • Did that guy really read those academic papers about prediction markets?
  • Should research scientist David Pennock lead the Prediction Market Institute?
  • Some enterprise prediction markets work very well… —some others are just a waste of time.
  • The European Union has ruled that betting and gambling is *NOT* an economic activity to which internal market rules on freedom to provide services should apply.
  • How to create a set of prediction markets on HubDub
  • Technical architecture for prediction markets
  • Who did it?
  • Removal
  • Chris Masse will admit to being behind chrismasse.com and/or overcomingmidas.com.
  • Cheltenham Festival 2009
  • How Jed Christiansen assesses the news article on EPMs by The Economist
  • Chris Masse is actually bullish on (enterprise and public) prediction markets.
  • The IP numbers were fudged.
  • Is the future of enterprise prediction markets promising?
  • Niall is not happy…
  • Who is behind?
  • The Gambler
  • Al Roth’s light take on prediction markets
  • Are (enterprise) prediction markets useful?
  • “damped polls” —not “dumped polls”, you, blogging idiot…!!!…
  • THE MOST OVERLOOKED DOCUMENT OF 2008
  • Assessing Prediction Markets 101
  • “The luxury of carrying under-performing employees is now a thing of the past.”
  • Enterprise prediction markets are not a disruptive technology; but merely another means of forecasting.
  • Prediction Markets & International Relations
  • How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap
  • I bet that those academic scholars…
  • Max Keiser’s The Oracle
  • Damped polls are superior to prediction markets as election predictors.
  • Damped polls outperform prediction markets.
  • Comparison of Multicriteria and Prediction Market Approaches for Technology Foresight
  • Séraphine
  • You Should Be Using LinkedIn for Demand Generation.
  • Chris Masse’s InterPol file
  • Awesome interview of the new BetFair CTO
  • “Chris F. Masse is a Fraud.”
  • Google horror story
  • What Panos Ipeirotis didn’t tell you
  • Al Gore’s activism at work
  • Mechanical Turk grades The Economist’s news article on enterprise prediction markets
  • Enterprise prediction markets… the next big thing —not.
  • What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist?
  • John Stewart unloads on CNBC… and Jim Cramer.
  • Opacity versus Openness
  • On second thought… I think Twitter is a great tool. It will enhance our global civilization. I am late to the Twitter party, I know, I know. I have just come the realize the immense value of Twitter after reading this:
  • “One of the things I always tell startups…”
  • Finally, an MBA in the field of enterprise prediction markets
  • Google rewards those who take part in web conversations about (enterprise) prediction markets.
  • It is not about Midas Oracle… It is about taking part of the conversation about (enterprise) prediction markets on the Web.
  • Will Larry Kudlow run for the US Senate in 2010?
  • Russia to default on debts on/before 31 Dec 2009
  • How far will the Dow fall before the end of 2009?
  • Denmark to announce their intention to adopt Euro as national currency on/before 31 Dec 2010
  • I am not the only one to ask the tough questions.
  • The prediction market consultants who matter —and the others who don’t
  • Will Tyler Cowen have the guts to ask the question that kills?
  • “The forecasting ability of a tool should not be judged against a virtual fool-proof prophet, as such a tool simply cannot exist.”
  • Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux
  • Smarter exchange mechanisms
  • Chris Masse’s favorite blogger
  • Do economics professors who have business relationships with prediction market companies indoctrinate their students about the supposed benefits of prediction markets?
  • How to get a great job in the prediction market industry
  • Should you pursue your career as a prediction market worker or bottle yourself up in a graduate school?
  • EPMs: CrowdCast is on the defensive / offensive.
  • Conditional Likelihood Loss
  • “elevator pitch for prediction markets”
  • Enterprise prediction markets: Usability innovation is the answer.
  • On Wikipedia, Max Keiser is back from the grave.
  • Inkling Markets CEO Adam Siegel speaks out on the current state of enterprise prediction markets.
  • Site Notice
  • 6 years is long enough for an assessment of the prediction markets.
  • Mat Fogarty to David Perry: “My ‘Chief Scientist’ beats yours.”
  • Inkling Markets to The Economist: “The trend is up, fellas.”
  • Jim Rogers on Max Keiser’s The Oracle
  • HubDub: Death markets are now banned.
  • Volume = (News Rate) * (Intrinsic Interest)
  • How vendors are scuttling the field of enterprise prediction markets —and the prediction market industry, as a whole
  • The Center for Prediction Markets, the biggest in the Chinese language, will try to call Taiwan’s presidential election on March 22, 2009.
  • HubDub: “Meta-markets, you said? Take that, Panos.”
  • The Economist: The enterprise prediction markets are flopping, big time.
  • HubDub: “We nailed all 50 states; Panos did not.”
  • Statistical-based predictive scoring metrics and analytical decision solutions
  • World Blogging Month (WoBloMo)
  • Commodity Futures Trading Commission
  • Prediction exchanges can now offer the New York Times in their mix.
  • The Wonderful Madame Carla Bruni
  • Panos Ipeirotis wants HubDub (and others) to set up meta-markets —as an anti-bragging medecine.
  • “It is their velocity that we should put to work.”
  • Harnessing Crowds: Mapping the Gehome of Collective Intelligence
  • UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver.
  • Betbull exits Betting Exchange Space.
  • You, too, can publish on Midas Oracle —if you wish.
  • Accuracy or Efficiency?
  • IG-owned HedgeStreet’s new prediction markets
  • “We nailed all 50 states.”
  • “I was on betfair nearly everyday, trading on the horses/football etc,”
  • Is Panos’s goal the same as the people’s goal?
  • Celebrating such “successes” leads to backfire when the markets end up *not* being correct.
  • http://intradecorporate.blogspot.com/
  • Oscars 2009: Andrew Gelman weighs in.
  • Tim Harford is a paperback writer.
  • “We nailed all 50 states.”
  • I just approved some new comments this morning. Check them out.
  • “Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.”
  • A portfolio instead of a diploma
  • “Entrepreneur” is a French word, Nate.
  • Outstanding post by Eliezer Yudkowsky
  • Boom and Bust of Prediction Markets
  • A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma
  • HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.
  • MBA Predict
  • BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.
  • Robin Hanson is not equipped intellectually to ponder on the biggest banking, financial and economic crisis of our generation.
  • Sean Park didn’t bribe me to post this web link.
  • Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets
  • CFM and Midas Oracle are in the Top 10 of the Google Web Search results for “prediction markets”.
  • The Idea Shower
  • Predicting the Oscars is in no way the right litmus test for assessing the predictive power of the prediction markets.
  • Nate Silver, whiz boy no more
  • Nate Silver’s model vs. InTrade’s prediction markets
  • What People Want (and How to Predict It)
  • InTrade and BetFair make it impossible for me to show you the expired charts on the Oscars 2009.
  • Soul searching….
  • Plus…
  • Velocity + Inaccuracy
  • The Oscars: What the prediction markets are expecting
  • Panos discovers that his Ivory Tower colleagues are a bunch of hypocrits.
  • “our PubFight game is showing some interesting applications there”
  • I learned a new word, today.
  • Max Keiser’s The Oracle — Andy Zaltzman and Leo Johnson — 20 February 2009
  • BetFair penalized by Google?
  • JFK + The passing of time + The prediction markets
  • Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.
  • Did Xpree and Inkling Markets forecast that?
  • Madoff liquidator subpoenas HedgeStreet.
  • The search for velocity — TradeFair Edition
  • The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity.
  • Allen Stanford vs. Bernie Madoff
  • Broken Link
  • The very last line of the Erikson–Wlezien paper
  • Velocity is such a potent argument. Why don’t we use it more, for Christ’s sake?
  • Wiki Predict
  • Professor Panos Ipeirotis on Prediction Markets
  • Whatever the expectations (whether they will end up being wrong or right), in complicated situations, the prediction markets aggregate them faster than the mass media do.
  • Flubber is partially right.
  • Backlash against gambling
  • The InTrade customers fear about the (in)solvency of the Irish banks.
  • Do you have a blog?
  • I talk about the velocity of the prediction markets… and, all of the sudden, the traffic explodes.
  • Linda Rebrovick + Brad Wilson + Robin Hanson + Ken Kittlitz + David Perry = Consensus Point
  • Science Blogs
  • Where is the link, David Perry?
  • A combinatorial prediction market is one where users can construct their own bets by mixing and matching options in myriad ways
  • The Cook Doctrine at Apple
  • The Ultimate Taboo — Part II
  • The Ultimate Taboo
  • Dependency —not
  • TERMINATED: InTrade ditch their external “bloggers”.
  • Directory listing of BetFair price files
  • Google recommends CFM and Midas Oracle — not Freakonomics… not Overcoming Whatever… not Odd Head… not Mercury… and certainly not BetFair Predicts.
  • No comments on the Pennock–Combinatorial blog post, yet.
  • Betting on the Oscars
  • InTrade modify depression contract… and mess up again.
  • Meet Linda Rebrovick, the Consensus Point CEO.
  • No Copyright
  • Inkling Markets push trading innovation where Robin Hanson and BetFair stopped.
  • Wrong use of prediction markets
  • Business cases and case studies on enterprise prediction markets
  • The market correctly predicted twenty four of the twenty six project milestones (92%). — Acxiom
  • Prediction markets won’t reverse the arrow of time —they won’t tell us the future.
  • Nate Silver has rendered InTrade useless —now, he plans to do the same with the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
  • InTrade-TradeSports’s country is on the brink of insolvency.
  • BetFair’s Mark Davies, the last man standing
  • Will FoxNews retract its story about $30M for the salt marsh harvest mouse?
  • The truth about prediction markets
  • 4 miscellaneous web links you can’t afford to ignore
  • Small interview of BetFair’s Mark Davies
  • Wiser Than The Crowd…?…
  • Google punishes Google Japan by lowering its PageRank to 5.
  • Peter Schiff on Max Keiser’s The Oracle
  • Twisted But Valuable Comment Of The Day — Growthology Edition
  • Robert E. Litan, Vice President for Research and Policy at the Kauffman Foundation
  • A good blog on prediction markets
  • The hype is over. The party is over. — Part V
  • Nate Silver is the #15 “Web Celebrity”.
  • How Best Buy gather the collected wisdom of customers and employees to better predict future events
  • US Court (State of Washington) says it is not gambling if you have the option to renege on the bet.
  • Dealing with public perception and general anti-market sentiment
  • Upgrading WordPress in 2 simple steps
  • BuddyPress will power the communities of our prediction exchanges.
  • ProfCast.com — A tool for recording lectures and creating enhanced podcasts.
  • Prediction market fanboy names his newborn child after a prediction exchange.
  • Prediction Markets & Knowledge Management
  • Wisdom Hive
  • Web-based Diagramming Application
  • Noca better than PayPal
  • Why Sean Glass is no Nigel Eccles
  • $800 million of brand-new debt
  • NewsFutures uses Google Friend Connect to power its community.
  • Nate Silver at TED 2009
  • James K. Galbraith on Max Keiser’s The Oracle
  • Connect With Fans (CwF) + Reason To Buy (RtB)
  • Ten VCs did reject the BetFair business plan, in the late nineties.
  • Wrong Question
  • Panos Ipeirotis’s research on Mechanical Turk
  • Barney Frank is going to try again to free Internet betting and gambling in the U.S.
  • Open-Source, Free-Of-Charge, “Constitutionally Open” Prediction Exchange
  • James K. Galbraith on Max Keiser’s The Oracle
  • How a Blog Might Have Stopped Bernard Madoff
  • EXPLOSIVE DOCUMENT
  • They are using Delicious on a daily baisis.
  • Cato Handbook for Policymakers
  • Max Keiser profits from scaring the hell out of his BBC viewers.
  • JusTrade = the Walmart of Finance
  • The hype is over. The party is over. — Part IV
  • Barney Kilgore and Nigel Eccles: Same vision, same combat
  • The BetFair chart on the Super Bowl XLIII (2009) puzzles one of the Midas Oracle readers.
  • Singularity University
  • 95 million TV viewers for the Super Bowl 2009
  • What is a prediction market? — Definitions & Explainers
  • Directories on Prediction Markets
  • Accuracy —not
  • BetFair co-founder Edward Wray in the February edition of Real Business magazine
  • Companies create real wealth when they combine technology with new ways of doing business.
  • Monday Morning QuarterBack To Death
  • HubDub issues
  • Accuracy —not
  • Super Bowl XLIII – 2009
  • Super Bowl XLIII – 2009
  • Midas Oracle is far above BetFair, once again, in the Google Web Search results.
  • How ideas become real
  • Robin Hanson on combinatorial prediction markets
  • If MicroSoft’s chief lawyer now blogs, then BetFair’s Mark Davies and Tony Clare should blog too.
  • Robin Hanson is famous for everything but prediction markets.
  • After months of strolling on Twitter
  • Robin Hanson escapes reality, enters the world of fiction.
  • BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009
  • Joseph Stiglitz on Manipulation & Prediction Markets
  • Australian Knowledge eXchange
  • Accuracy —not. — REDUX
  • Interesting analysis from Niall O’Connor
  • Accuracy —not.
  • Prove that you are a better Internet innovator than David Pennock, and get $5,000 in cash.
  • Joseph Stiglitz on The Oracle with Max Keiser
  • Gerard Cunningham, president of BetFair USA (The Sporting Exchange USA)
  • How can people and computers be connected so that collectively they act more intelligently than any individual, group, or computer has ever done before?
  • Carbon dioxide forms approximately 0.04% of the Earth’s atmosphere.
  • Robin Hanson’s nemesis on prediction markets
  • Problem commenting on Midas Oracle
  • You’re the first to know that, because you’re listening to midasoracle.org, the group blog that digs deep to deliver you the latest on anything related to prediction markets (including rumors, bombastic statements and odd factoids).
  • Handbook of Collective Intelligence
  • Mike Knesevitch
  • Business Value
  • BETFAIR ENTER THE U.S. BETTING MARKET.
  • You can become Xpree’s director of marketing.
  • Art Hutchinson has a book out.
  • Happy Birthday, HubDub…!!…
  • The hype is over. The party is over. — Part III
  • Google Knol does not use collective intelligence.
  • “The mainstream media colludes with the magic, misdirection, mischief and mayhem and money laundering.”
  • Max Keiser On Alex Jones Show — 17 November 2008
  • Redesign of The Sim Exchange
  • Will Barack Obama use prediction markets?
  • Max Keiser’s The Oracle #3 — BBC World News
  • Midas Oracle is an ubiquitous addiction.
  • The hype is over. The party is over. — Part II
  • 2010 US Elections
  • The hype is over. The party is over.
  • Wikipedia versus Britannica
  • Baseball, then politics…
  • InTrade messed up badly with its prediction market on the likelihood of an economic depression.
  • Erik Snowberg on the prediction markets about the 2008 US presidential elections
  • OneSeason.com
  • Thomas Malone on Collective Intelligence
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • The prediction markets chalk another one up.
  • Good Taste?
  • A 16-year-old list of unthinkable futures —i.e., probabilities we tend to dismiss without thinking
  • Scott Page
  • MBAs on Enterprise Prediction Markets
  • Robin Hanson has convinced Concensus Point to support combinatorial prediction markets.
  • Climate Change Prediction Markets
  • Obstacles to Prediction Market Adoption
  • Did you e-mail a link to Chris Masse?
  • Betdaq Forum
  • Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.
  • HubDub CEO on Max Keiser’s The Oracle (BBC World News)
  • I am going to switch from MicroSoft Windows to Apple Macintosh OS.
  • Good Judgment
  • Is economics a science?
  • Could HubDub enhance CNN’s website?
  • HubDub is quick to react to breaking news.
  • The 2009 Global Warming prediction contract is up.
  • Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise.
  • Is Chris Masse a spammer?
  • $1.2 million of fresh money for HubDub’s development
  • Nate Silver at TED 2009
  • Max is hilarious.
  • 8 Predictions for Enterprise Web 2.0 in 2009
  • Prediction Markets in India
  • The San Francisco conference on prediction markets
  • Handbags are down as one info-tech predictor defends his reputation against the one-year-later reality check done by HubDub.
  • Over the airwaves, Australian reporters (employed by a media company sponsored by BetFair Australia) cited the BetFair odds about a cricket match.
  • The Beeb will reduce its coverage about horse racing.
  • Is the Earth on the brink of entering another Ice Age?
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • Cass Sunstein is too much.
  • The Oracle, with Max Keiser
  • The Oracle, with Max Keiser — BBC World News
  • The skeptics of the prediction markets are delighted by the Erikson–Wlezien and Lee–Moretti research papers.
  • A FRIEND OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE WHITE HOUSE — Part 4
  • A FRIEND OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE WHITE HOUSE — Part 3
  • How to subscribe to Midas Oracle via Google Reader
  • NewsPundits @ HubDub
  • A FRIEND OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE WHITE HOUSE — Part 2
  • R
  • Prediction Markets for Emerging Technology
  • A FRIEND OF THE PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE WHITE HOUSE
  • Are they afraid?
  • Nate Silver is the best. — (Note that they don’t give the first fig about political prediction markets.)
  • Do you have what it takes to run the CIA?
  • British Horseracing Authority’s Paul Struthers @ TimeForm Radio
  • LinkedIn group on prediction markets
  • Why would I twitter if I can facebook?
  • The most amazing journalistic thing I read this early morning
  • Will Chris Masse of MidasOracle.org create a Twitter account in 2009?
  • Censorship?
  • A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price
  • Buy up a play-money prediction exchange with all its traders
  • “Entrepreneur” is a French word.
  • Bernard-Henri Lévy is a fabulist.
  • Making the Web works for science as it does for culture and commerce
  • Prediction markets in security of cryptographic primitives
  • Was the wreck of the USS Scorpion discovered thanks to collective intelligence?
  • Electing a US President
  • Nigel Eccles and George Tziralis talked up Twitter to me in 2008.
  • Re-inventing the bicycle.
  • Did you get your final check from TradeSports?
  • Financial Woes Change Landscape for Credit Derivatives.
  • BetFair has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Tennis Integrity Unit.
  • Was the wreck of the USS Scorpion discovered thanks to collective intelligence?
  • 2 info-tech links that set the tone for 2009
  • NewsFutures and the media are hostile to Princess Caroline.
  • Happy New Year… from Google
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • Prediction markets react to polls.
  • Mario Galea and the Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the continuing corruption of this puppet online gambling licensing body
  • Improving startup virality using prediction markets to estimate failure probability?
  • Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures
  • WordPress 2.7, the embedded YouTube videos, and the feed readers
  • Google FriendSense inside each prediction market webpage?
  • Would enterprise prediction markets have predicted the complete collapse of the market for corporate jets?
  • Where do you get most of your national and international news?
  • What’s the point of a painted portrait that looks exactly like a photograph?
  • The year 2008 in pictures —thanks to the Beeb
  • Prediction markets are so yesterday.
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • Entrepreneurship
  • Ex-HedgeStreet director enhances social networking websites with a micro-payments web service.
  • CFTC-regulated, thinly-traded, all-electronic derivative exchange USFE puts itself for sale.
  • The best way to raise awareness for your prediction market startup is to create a long-term relationship with the Midas Oracle blogger and other web acquaintances (a.k.a. “online friends”).
  • Open nights for some BetFair customers at HammerSmith
  • The pros and cons of HubDub
  • The new BetFair CTO is Tony McAlister.
  • Art Hutchinson’s post-mortem analysis of the 2008 US presidential election.
  • Will the global economic recession kill the Web 2.0 (which includes HubDub)?
  • BetFair for the iPhone
  • Box office prediction markets don’t work out at the Iowa Electronic Markets.
  • Australian soccer player suspended for betting on his own team’s game
  • “Over the past 12 months, I’ve turned $200 into more than $25,000 via the Intrade prediction markets.”
  • “Buzzwords are what political wiseguys use to sound all important and knowing in a profession whose prime currency is the illusion of being both. They are like secret passwords for the chattering class, the verbal equivalent of a terrorist fist jab.”
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • Ex-HSX Max Keiser’s public campaign to destabilize the Cantor Exchange
  • InTrade’s bank is in trouble.
  • Congrats to George Tziralis
  • Important reminder for those interested in the Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • Scientific journal asks article authors to write up a Wikipedia webpage as part of the submission process.
  • Gary Gensler will head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2009.
  • The latest issue of the Journal Of Prediction Markets
  • The Ultimate Ponzi Scheme
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets will see things from far above.
  • Our Embargo Policy
  • Barack Obama has chosen Mary Schapiro, chief executive of a non-governmental regulator for securities firms (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority), to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Definition of Collective Intelligence
  • Enough already with the prediction markets and Robin Hanson
  • First, search engines, then, prediction markets, and now, artificial intelligence.
  • The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets
  • BetFair Predicts does not publish original material. — FAIL
  • Robin Hanson should blog more about prediction markets, and spend less time going to moronic vendor conferences.
  • Prediction Market Journalism
  • HubDub’s lost it to “Help A Reporter Out”.
  • Not every SEO artist is a bastard.
  • HubDub is the future of InTrade and BetFair.
  • The University of Iowa — Home of the world-famous Iowa Electronic Markets
  • Commenting on Midas Oracle
  • The IFTF X2 Project
  • Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.
  • TERMINATED: InTrade ditches its frontpage “bloggers”…
  • Assessing Mahalo Answers
  • HubDub chart widgets
  • Why all the prediction market people should wish that the arcane “electoral college” system and the complex Democratic primary system never get to be overhauled and simplified.
  • The British bozos at The Economist are apologizing to their American readers for their bad 2008 predictions.
  • People, don’t pay real money to attend the San Francisco vendor mini-conference on prediction markets.
  • The pros and cons of the Cantor Exchange
  • The BetFair blog is *NOT* the best source of information on British soccer.
  • Still no embedded YouTube videos to be seen in my feed reader(s).
  • Prediction Markets in Germany
  • Over-selling the Prediction Markets
  • Who is Fortune Elkins?
  • On other blogs than Midas Oracle, the Askimet anti-spam technology actually blocks legitimate comments from honorable people, and, hence, blocks free speech on the Internet.
  • The 2009 economic recession is perfect timing for creating your prediction market company.
  • Problem with my WordPress 2.7, my embedded YouTube videos, and my feed reader(s).
  • Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures
  • Just escaped from the Evil Empire
  • In-House Vs. Outsourcing
  • WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE: The secret polling of the HSX traders, surveying how many of them would transition to the Cantor Exchange.
  • Videos — Cantor Exchange
  • “Sooner or later, it seems, Cantor will finally start monetizing HSX and will get into the business of entertainment futures.”
  • The BetFair traders are smarter than the bookmaker bettors.
  • Midas Oracle is now powered by WordPress 2.7.
  • I told you so.
  • Understanding the mechanism by which bubbles form
  • Ah.
  • Is this man the Cantor Exchange project leader?
  • Type “Cantor Exchange” in Google Blog Search, and you are gently coaxed into checking Midas Oracle.
  • At the contrary, mister Kirtland.
  • Cantor Exchange vs. Hollywood Stock Exchange
  • Am I the only one to think that Max’s reaction
  • FAIL
  • CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction markets about movie box office — Cantor Exchange
  • Prediction Markets for Emerging Technology: An Experiment in the Wisdom of Crowds
  • Betdaq’s SEO trick managed to get its website to be listed ahead of BetFair’s one in the Google Web Search results. — For how long?
  • A Canadian event derivative trader reflects on the future of InTrade and Tradesports.
  • “Create your own exchange in 3 clicks.”
  • Midas Oracle is the #1 source of information on prediction markets.
  • There are now 9 co-managers of the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.
  • BetFair now sponsors the Ascot horse race.
  • More than 48 hours later, HubDub still gives a chance to outcomes with no future.
  • World’s #1 finance blogger withdraws all his money from InTrade… and blogs about it —detailing his negative customer experience to his thousands of Wall Street readers.
  • Changing the Game: How Video Games Are Transforming the Future of Business.
  • HubDub failed miserably in trying to predict the very unpredictable Mashable Open Web Awards.
  • Interview with Rory Mackay of JusTrade
  • Are prediction markets on deaths and assassinations SOMETIMES acceptable?
  • Just say “no” to long-term prediction markets
  • Larry Page’s former girlfriend explains to you all you ever wanted to ask about Google Chrome (their open-source web browser) but never dared asking Larry Page.
  • New prediction exchange in Costa Rica that aims at filling the void left by TradeSports
  • Things you always wanted to ask about Google but never dared asking Hal Varian
  • Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?
  • Who needs Robin Hanson’s Policy Analysis Market when we have plain, classic, old-fashioned, market-free intelligence reports leaked to the mass media by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism?
  • Are prediction markets useful to you?
  • Team management —done right.
  • The HubDub prediction markets on assassinations could be somewhat useful in some cases —now that I am sober and that I think of it.
  • The one thing I enjoy every Monday morning
  • Blah, blah, blah, blogs. Blah, blah, blah, my blog. Blah, blah, blah, the bloggers. Blah, blah, blah, blogging.
  • Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold?
  • My open question to Xpree’s Mat Fogarty
  • No more margin trading at InTrade
  • Are prediction markets useful?
  • Giving Thanks
  • Andrew Goldberg laments the narrow range of political prediction markets at InTrade.
  • “Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).”
  • OPEN WEB AWARDS: The deck is stacked against HubDub.
  • Yet another person outraged by the HubDub prediction markets on deaths and assassinations
  • Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits.
  • YouTube goes widescreen —so we can get more of Jason Ruspini (if that was really a necessity).
  • Panos Ipeirotis’s students are too polite to be honest.
  • What a great Irish democrat. — Shut up your gob; just trade.
  • Jason Ruspini’s free fall
  • Spot the sudden blood bath in the Jason Ruspini prediction markets.
  • John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets.
  • ElectoralMap.net has been over-selling InTrade’s predictive power to the public —as John Tierney’s just done.
  • “The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.”
  • The one thing you didn’t know about NewsFutures because our good doctor Servan-Schreiber never came on Midas Oracle to tell it.
  • Forbes endorses the Jason Ruspini prediction markets on tax rate.
  • The HubDub predictions markets on assassinations and deaths are sparking outrage.
  • We finally found the WMDs.
  • Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.
  • Dream Caused by the Flight of a Bee around a Pomegranate a Second Before Awakening
  • The 2 things you didn’t know about the other Consensus Point co-founder —the one you never heard about.
  • The thing you didn’t know about the other Inkling Markets co-founder —the one you never heard about.
  • The thing you didn’t know about the other NewsFutures co-founder —the one you never heard about.
  • The End Of Wall Street
  • She seems to be real.
  • 3-outcome prediction markets
  • Plenty of good links on prediction markets
  • Tom Harkin plans to introduce a bill that would force all over-the-counter derivatives, including credit-default swaps, onto regulated futures exchanges.
  • Google Trends, as seen by Jason Carver
  • “TradeSports – a classless act – right to the very last day.”
  • NewsFutures’ Scientific Advisory Board
  • Xpree’s Advisory Board
  • If you can’t beat them, join them.
  • Please, do vote for HubDub under “Social News”.
  • TradeSports & InTrade — The saga continues…
  • Google Trends of TradeSports, InTrade, BetFair, and “prediction markets”
  • Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.
  • Barack Obama 365 — 173 John McCain
  • The worst US economic recession in 50 years
  • Is it a good thing to be an academic whose last name begins with the letter “A” (e.g., Michael Abramowicz)? Or is it better to have a last name that begins with the letter “Z” (e.g., Eric Zitzewitz)?
  • Problem with the Inkling Markets chart widgets
  • Why did John Delaney shut down TradeSports?
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney’s 2 risky bets
  • The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade are *STRUCTURALLY* designed to *DETER* any InTrade trader from betting on the negative side of the issue.
  • Is this the reason John Delaney quickly shut TradeSports down, yesterday?
  • The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won’t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.
  • InTrade is alive and kicking —says its CEO.
  • The sudden (but not unexpected) death of TradeSports
  • “During my tenure at Intrade, John Delaney quite literally saved the company. He provided leadership by example, and was constantly able to produce creative solutions to extremely difficult problems.”
  • The InTrade traders are wondering what the future of InTrade is —now that TradeSports has bellied up in style.
  • The prediction market industry is not populated by truthful people.
  • Beware the “Sarah V. Jones”?
  • After the demise of TradeSports, questions (re-)surface about the viability of InTrade.
  • “Prediction Market Consultant at MIT”
  • TradeSports ceases its operations.
  • Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea.
  • InTrade finally expire the “Yahoo! CEO to step down” prediction market. — Many hours after the news of his upcoming departure hit the wires.
  • “The take-away: Do not believe a word that Yahoo says. Ever.”
  • Yahoo! CEO Jerry Yang is to step down. — But the InTrade prediction market failed to foretell us that.
  • Jason Ruspini tries to save the Hansonian world.
  • “In an interview in this month’s Thoroughbred Owner Breeder magazine, [BetFair co-founder Andrew] Black is pictured next to his computer, logged into his BetFair account. The balance at the time is clearly visible: £119,252.”
  • “I have written for perhaps a dozen major publications over the span of my career, and the one with the most thorough fact-checking process is by some margin Sports Illustrated.”
  • The 2 links you should follow, first thing, this Monday morning
  • A comment that makes sense
  • Do make the PMs logo visible on your LinkedIn profile —right now.
  • Funny Blog Name Of The Day — Sunday Edition
  • Don’t be as dumb as Robin Hanson: Do protect your hard drive from intrusers.
  • Is Iowa Electronic Markets’ George Neumann really a gentleman?
  • It wasn’t about the predictions.
  • My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis
  • Spot his new personal e-mail. — Those great research scientists who want to redo the world thanks to prediction markets have small amusements.
  • I have lambasted the Mei Moses Fine Art Index prediction markets for being intrinsically incapable of generating liquidity in trading. As a direct consequence of this coverage on the world’s #1 prediction market blog, they are picking up steam like they want to navigate down the whole Mississippi till they reach the Golf of Mexico. — Snake eats itself.
  • When you log in, do use the login area on the top of the sidebar, not the one that is in the comment area.
  • What to think of the anti-Robin Hanson gadfly?
  • 3 links you can’t afford to miss
  • A (horse) racetrack has been named after BetFair.
  • The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run.
  • The fact that Emile Servan-Schreiber (usually, a smart man) treats the 2008 US presidential elections, as seen thru the lens of the NewsFutures prediction markets, so lightly, making it a race of spermatozoids swimming their way to the Oval Room, shows you that the prediction market luminaries are incapable of giving you any clear and convincing demonstration that their prediction markets has had a social utility during the 2008 race for the White House.
  • Derivatives
  • Do give the Nobel prize to Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock. — Santo Subito! [*]
  • It’s Only A Game.
  • InTrade set up yet another obscure prediction market that that bombastic flake of Chris Masse will call a loser.
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber is such a funny man.
  • Lance Fortnow’s new car —out of Al Gore’s textbook
  • Chicago is hot, all of the sudden —but Lance Fortnow has nothing to do with it (if you were wondering).
  • Let’s create a global betting commission to tackle sport corruption in the world-wide world.
  • TradeFair
  • Justin Wolfers has won a bottle of wine.
  • Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges
  • The peak you see represents the number of visits to Midas Oracle .ORG on Election Day 2008 (November, 4, 2008).
  • Who needs the Iowa Health Prediction Exchange anymore now that we have Google Flu Trends?
  • NOT SAFE FOR WORK
  • “Long after Intrade gave a 99% chance for an Obama victory, CNN announced him as the winner, predictably at 11pm EST on-the-dot.”
  • Prediction Economy
  • Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on?
  • Google, the flu, and MIT’s Thomas Malone
  • The theory of complexity should be applied to economics so as to better understand the free markets.
  • The HSX bozos, who briefly experimented with a website “redesign”, have now reverted to their original platform.
  • The SEC and the CFTC will soon disappear into their own ***. Here’s what could be next.
  • George Tziralis’ non-PM invention
  • Can we reduce the prediction market long-shot bias by paying interest on deposits?
  • Enterprise Prediction Markets = Voodoo Forecasting?
  • Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts
  • Computing State Correlations in Elections Using (Only) Prediction Markets
  • Is there a fundamental problem diminushing the intensity of the predictive power of any prediction market whose expiry is months (or years) away?
  • Oops.
  • 2008 US presidential elections
  • Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn
  • Nate Silver “killed” InTrade.
  • My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney
  • BetFair + National Hockey League
  • The Inkling Markets chart widgets are un-usable —unlike NewsFutures and HubDub’s ones.
  • What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common?
  • The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it.
  • BetFair seeks a Google agency.
  • How many web visitors did Midas Oracle send to the prediction exchanges (and the other external websites)?
  • BetFair’s chart widgets are a total nuclear disaster. BetFair should apologize publicly for this shame.
  • Prediction Markets vs. Betting Exchanges
  • InTrade was the best prediction exchange, on November 4, 2008 —in terms of the overall service (Internet usability included).
  • Midas Oracle web stats report for November 4, 2008
  • Prediction Markets — The Day After
  • TIME’s person of the year 2008 will be Barack Obama.
  • Pushing for the legalization of the real-money prediction markets in America
  • 2008 US presidential election prediction — A visual approach of InTrade’s prediction markets
  • 3 reasons why bloggers should boycott BetFair Predicts
  • 2008 US electoral map prediction — generated by the prediction markets
  • State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction
  • The automated market maker of InTrade’s play-money prediction markets
  • Strange Bedfellows
  • CNBC on prediction markets
  • How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power
  • Enterprise prediction markets help organizations mitigate risks.
  • Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast.
  • Zubin Jelveh explains how the market arbitrage opportunities between InTrade and BetFair evaporated just after Nate Silver’s post.
  • Prediction Market Journalism
  • BetFair Predicts does not link to BetFair.
  • The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count
  • Futarchy Lite 2008
  • Midas Oracle is the #1 blog on prediction markets.
  • The “Objectivity” —according to BetFair
  • InTrade, the pollsters, and whom/what to blame next Wednesday —in case predictions turn to be inaccurate
  • Wanna be famous?
  • Greg Mankiw doesn’t agree with the InTrade prediction markets on the future tax rates.
  • There are two November surprises.
  • Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather?
  • “You don’t need any sticking SEO expert” —tells a (smart and honest) SEO expert to the HubDub CEO.
  • 50% of the connected population reads Midas Oracle… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … and the other “blogs” out there.
  • Mark Davies and Emile Servan-Schreiber croak in French in favor of the betting exchanges and the prediction markets.
  • Rush Limbaugh explains to his right-wing fellows that he never reads the comments made on blog posts, because they are written by “isane” “lunatics”, and then, in the same breath, he tells his listeners how one comment made by a pro-Hillary woman might impact the race to the White House.
  • Win Futures
  • Will Florida vote for Barack Obama or John McCain?
  • How do the HubDub prediction markets work? How can I predict the upcoming news?
  • Why would an event derivative trader inform his/her fellow traders about pieces of information that give clues about the future outcome of an event that they all bet on?
  • Would InTrade or BetFair have done a better job predicting how many people would see the Barack Obama infomercial?
  • Midas Oracle is going to do well during this upcoming economic recession.
  • Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election —based on state polls and prediction markets
  • Barry Ritholtz has a new home.
  • Justin Wolfers won the World Series.
  • Yet another indispensable set of prediction markets that HubDub is the only exchange to run
  • Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.
  • What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets?
  • Are micro-payments the way by which HubDub and NewsFutures could attain profitability?
  • Gerard Cunningham, president of BetFair USA
  • Aren’t you fed up by those obnoxious bloggers (like Chris Masse) who constantly blog about blogging and bloggers?
  • 2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.
  • Dynamic Charts … or … Static Charts …??…
  • Why Chris Masse is important —(no kidding).
  • The definitive proof that HubDub is an indispensable prediction exchange. [*]
  • At BetFair Predicts, they are technologically retarded.
  • How much betting will we see?
  • Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election
  • At inception, I created an “Internet usability” category, and, since, I have published many Jakob Nielsen stories. Many wondered why I would bother. Now, the Midas Oracle readers can understand why.
  • Meet Andrew Wing, the recently appointed CEO of Cantor Entertainment, who (along with Alex Costakis) has lead to the complete and definitive destruction of the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
  • The Hollywood Stock Exchange traders are revolting against the new “social networking” functionalities brought in there by some snake-oil “social media” consultant.
  • How to break a successful prediction exchange in less than one week
  • Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”?
  • InTrade’s Historical Prediction Markets
  • Could this technique be used in future prediction market games?
  • The new Hollywood Stock Exchange website (recently redesigned) sucks as much as an indigestible fruit cake.
  • “Competitive Forecasting” (the brand which NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber is so sanguine about) is probably more than a generic mark, it might well be a descriptive mark —provided X, Y and Z.
  • NewsFutures workshop — Monday, October 27, 2008
  • Does “Competitive Forecasting” belong to NewsFutures?
  • NewsFutures Election Contest – Actually Win Something
  • Google CEO Eric Schmidt at Bloomberg on the Future of Technology
  • BetFair is doing fine —thanks for asking.
  • Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox said he strongly supports merging his agency with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
  • HSX traders not happy with HSX website redesign?
  • 2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections
  • InTrade Prediction Markets versus Electoral-Vote Polls
  • Few people write up blog posts, but many read them (”scan-read” them, more exactly). That’s true for both Midas Oracle and the Blogosphere as a whole.
  • Jason Ruspini est déchainé.
  • Is Spigit stealing the Best Buy quotes on enterprise prediction markets that does in fact belong to Consensus Point (which is the software vendor that has Best Buy as its customer)?
  • Tampa Bay Rays — World Series
  • How the Tampa Bay Rays went from $7.00 to $750.00 on yoonew.com.
  • Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting
  • Historical Political Prediction Markets
  • How Best Buy make use of their prediction market software
  • BetFair apologize to their event derivative traders.
  • Are the Financial Times writers overly bullish on gambling companies’ stocks?
  • The best research paper of the year 2008
  • Some companies pay money to some blog advertising networks so that some crétins, armed each with a computer and an Internet connection, can pollute the Blogosphere with commercial messages (not disclosed as such), until we reach the point where web readers won’t trust bloggers anymore.
  • Polls vs. Prediction Markets
  • Guess who has just joined the FOX News propaganda machine?
  • Freakonomics is the latest in a long series of (usually, serious) bloggers who have misinformed the public by stating that the institutional investor is manipulating the US political election prediction markets.
  • Legal stuff that Tom W. Bell didn’t tell you because you were too shy asking Jason Ruspini instead —UIGEA edition
  • The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets
  • The URL of the Consensus Point Blog + The URL of its feed
  • Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.
  • Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?
  • DANIEL REEVES WANTS YOU TO VISIT THIS WEBSITE AND ANALYZE ITS MODEL:
  • Political prediction markets should “move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value”.
  • Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?
  • A blogger at the New York Times misinforms the public about the alleged manipulations on the InTrade US political prediction markets.
  • InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading.
  • The gamble of downplaying manipulation
  • The blogger at Marginal Revolution misinforms the public by repeating the misinterpretation thrown around by liberal hack Paul Krugman about the alleged manipulation on the InTrade prediction markets.
  • Liberal hack (and Nobel Prize winner) Paul Krugman totally and completely misunderstands what InTrade CEO John Delaney said regarding the non-informational trades made on their US political prediction markets.
  • Towards prediction market webpages (a la HubDub) that Google can index, that web visitors can land on directly (even after the event derivative contract expiry), that traders can comment on, and that bloggers can directly link to
  • Type “Gambling Help” on Google UK (so as to get help to cure your gambling addiction), and what you’ll get is a sponsored link for a British bookmaker that offers you 10 bucks (”quids” as they say) for free.
  • The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets
  • Jason Ruspini’s first guess about who is hedging on InTrade
  • The excellent question of the day — HubDub edition.
  • There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets.
  • Is BetFair far less usable than InTrade-TradeSports?
  • Our prediction market network at LinkedIn
  • Reuters cite InTrade and the IEM…
  • Correlation is not causation, you said?
  • Imaginatik is the leading provider of Collaborative Innovation and Idea Management technology and services.
  • Midas Oracle is in red. Overcoming Whatever is in blue.
  • InTrade is in red. The two other lines are HubDub and BetFair.
  • HubDub (in blue) vs. Predictify (in red)
  • Predictify’s 2008 US electoral map
  • The Guardian now treats BetFair as a monopoly.
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber says that France’s new law on Internet betting is totally “idiotic”, since it will allow only the pari-mutuel systems, and will exclude the prediction markets (a.k.a. betting markets).
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney states that prediction markets can prevent the next financial cataclysms. Surely. Prediction markets can also restore women’s virginity, and treat men’s baldness.
  • Transparency is an Imperative, but so are Speed, Access and Understanding.
  • Robin Hanson’s résumé is a potent selling point for a website frontpage. I predict that the Consensus Point stock will go up.
  • The very, very impressive number of the day
  • What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets?
  • Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point.
  • Sharing items within Google Reader
  • Positives for prediction markets
  • SCOOP: BetFair Predicts is made thru FlatSourcing.
  • Work at Xpree… Work at InTrade… And become rich and famous.
  • Short-Lived Exuberance?
  • Emile wants us to trade on play-money prediction markets. David wants us to eat healthy so as to avoid cancer.
  • Just say “cheese”, Paul.
  • Slate ditch the prediction markets for the polls.
  • Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds 101
  • Nobel Prize in Economics: the Harvard betting pool didn’t have Paul Krugman under the radar.
  • PoliTickR = a good blog on prediction markets
  • Subscribe to a blog about politics or sports, and automatically, the feed reader would insert links and charts from InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, etc. —when and where it is appropriate to enrich the posts.
  • Financial Analysts Journal on Prediction Markets
  • SourceForge is now web-hosting applications.
  • The Twisted Nobel Committee
  • Midas Oracle thanks these guys for participating (by publishing posts and/or comments) in our ongoing discussion about the social utility of the prediction markets.
  • TradeFair was first branded as a serious financial prediction exchange, but it didn’t work out, and TradeFair is now actually an operator that applies gambling (not betting) to the financial markets.
  • The Nobel committee reads Midas Oracle.
  • How the prediction market companies should weather the upcoming economic crisis
  • “Obama is a Muslim who has concealed his religion.”
  • The BetFair forum is now managed by a separate company (another subsiduary of The Sporting Exchange), and will soon be inaccessible (even for viewing) to the non-BetFair customers.
  • Take the Barack Obama event derivative at InTrade, invert the graph, and then sur-impose the S&P 500 on it.
  • Max Keiser is going to practice (an entertaining form of) prediction market analysis for BBC World News.
  • The prediction market companies and the economic crisis
  • Inside Project Red Stripe
  • InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably. Here’s why. You heard it here first.
  • Thane Heins’s Perpetual Motion Machine — NO KIDDING.
  • Pop!Tech 2008
  • INFORMS on prediction markets
  • Housing derivatives markets saw the housing NAV depreciation in the US housing market early, clearly and transparently.
  • InTrade should ditch their prediction markets on the InTrade prediction markets, and run a continuing series of 5-minute prediction markets instead.
  • Clarification
  • TradeFair Hi Lo = the 5-minute prediction markets, which will bring a financial cachet to gambling (alas, for some).
  • BetFair Predicts = a new WordPress-powered website concocted out of San Francisco, California… —whose informational value is close to zero.
  • OFFICIAL: InTrade is rigged.
  • James Bond’s Quantum of Solace + Oliver Stone’s W + Bill Maher’s Religulous
  • Computer tips
  • In the end, the InTrade traders seem to believe that Barack Obama benefited from the debate… —but spot the drop (for Obama) and the surge (for McCain) between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM ET.
  • Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance?
  • OneSeason.com
  • JusTrade: real-money prediction markets in South Africa
  • “These [individual] predictions are then aggregated up into accurate forecasts.”
  • Criticism about InTrade’s prediction markets on the InTrade prediction markets
  • Barack Obama is a Cat’s Whisker away from getting North Carolina in his column, on the InTrade electoral map widget (where the ‘leaning’ mode is the default).
  • North Carolina: the new battleground
  • Mortgage Crisis –> Credit Crisis –> Financial Crisis –> Economic Crisis –> THE GREAT DEPRESSION
  • A Ten-Year Research Project Investigating Business-to-Business Reverse Auctions
  • The self-serving blurbs that are published on the InTrade website’s header
  • Beware the Real Clear Politics polls aggregation?
  • BetFair’s dynamic compound chart widgets: un-usable and ugly.
  • Unlike InTrade, BetFair and NewsFutures, HubDub made dynamic compound chart widgets that can go into feed readers.
  • Why Midas Oracle rocks
  • Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX
  • Prediction Market Definition —updated
  • The selling point of enterprise prediction markets
  • Beware the Gremlins. In the UK, they are pro BetFair.
  • Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets
  • On the question of the candidates’ qualifications to assume the presidency, 87 percent of the people polled said Joe Biden is qualified while only 42 percent said Sarah Palin is qualified.
  • A very good reason not to sell up TechMeme, Memeorandum, WeSmirch and BallBug to Google or Yahoo!.
  • Prediction Market Manipulations
  • Here is a Wall Street pundit who is very quick to blame the prediction markets. But did the punditry of that smart ass performed better than the prediction markets, regarding last week’s vote on the House of Representatives?
  • Barney Frank’s Payment System Protection Act (HR6870)
  • BetFair Radio will now be produced by TimeForm (the horse racing publication, which The Sporting Exchange acquired).
  • Our play-money prediction exchanges should partner with non-profits.
  • Global Election Market = a play-money prediction exchange for forecasting all the world’s political elections
  • Arbitraging on InTrade
  • For the anecdote…
  • YooPick = an innovation in spread betting markets
  • I have said from day one that we need dynamic compound charts with customizable news markers.
  • Zotero [zoh-TAIR-oh] is a free, easy-to-use FireFox extension to help you collect, manage, and cite your research sources. It lives right where you do your work — in the web browser itself.
  • InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).
  • Google PageRank of Prediction Exchange Sites and Prediction Market Blogs
  • FAIL
  • 2 Democratic-leaning columnists who used to deride the prediction markets are now over-quoting them —now that those prediction markets are predicting a landslide for Barack Obama come November 2008.
  • Spikes
  • Exago Markets have created their own software for enterprise prediction markets.
  • Yahoo! News finally links to InTrade —for legal reasons, not to InTrade .COM (their real-money prediction exchange), but to InTrade .NET (their play-money prediction exchange, which uses an AMM linked to InTrade .COM, without disclosing it to the public).
  • The Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) is a shallow organization that hasn’t accomplished anything, and now the world-wide world knows about that fake organization lead by a triumvirat of non-US people who are not fully representative of the international prediction market scene.
  • Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA), one year later
  • Good Morning America.
  • InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair and Betdaq should re-package prediction makets as insurance or contingent goods.
  • Long-Term Prediction Markets
  • Mercury, Xpree, HubDub, Media Predict, The Sim Exchange, Ask Markets, iPredict New Zealand, Smarkets, Red Monitor, etc.: Will they be still with us next year?
  • Why would we take seriously a blogger who don’t get the basic facts straight, and who don’t embed any external web links in his post?
  • The best thing since the wheel and sliced bread…
  • Exago Markets, Portugal, E.U.
  • Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?
  • Prediction market journalism becomes mainstream.
  • Historical Prediction Markets
  • All against the BetFair premium charges
  • The updated listing of blogs on prediction markets
  • David Pennock gives innovation ideas to Sean Park and the other VCs… FOR FREE.
  • HUBDUB PUNDIT WATCH: TechCrunch is the bottom of the pool, while VentureBeat and Pat Buchanan are stellar.
  • Who is the InTrade micro-manipulator? Is he / she a Poker player? Why would he / she do that?
  • Washington Mutual is seized by the US government.
  • As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.
  • The SuperStruct Game = the world’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game
  • A great blog on prediction markets
  • Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president?
  • Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets
  • THE MANAGEMENT OF THE QUESTIONS: What’s best, Google Moderator, or a FaceBook application?
  • Marketing web publication accuses de facto monopoly BetFair of gouging customers.
  • Poker is popular on FaceBook. So should be the prediction markets.
  • Bo likes to ride on top of exotic creatures.
  • Robin Hanson sends Nassim Nicholas Taleb back in the locker room, and John Delaney does the same with Jason Ruspini.
  • I am going to suffer retaliation for what I am about to tell you, but I am taking the risk because it’s the truth.
  • BetFair Arcade seems to be a play-money / real-money gambling product that is going to bring problem gambling to a higher level —if the testimony of this recent winner (£11K) is to be taken seriously.
  • Is Smarkets a UK-based, real-money, CDA-powered prediction exchange that is going to export its betting services to the Americans?
  • The second InTrade “blogger” makes very controversial remarks on Iranian TV —calling Henry Paulson a “financial terrorist”, 9/11 style.
  • Hubdub Election Map Released (Including Dynamic Widget)
  • Justin Wolfers has signed a “pretty weak” petition on the Bailout proposal…
  • SpreadFair on the 2008 US electoral college
  • Something absolutely EXTRAORDINARY happened in my life, today.
  • “Intrade Betting is Suspicious.”
  • POLLS AGGREGATOR SLAMS INTRADE: The prediction markets are a bunch of laggards, number one, and, number two, they f*ck it up as often as polls do.
  • The regulation of iPredict New Zealand
  • I need your input.
  • 2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
  • Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) = a little Robin Hanson fanboy —just like Chris Hibbert.
  • On pinching God’s nose
  • After re-publishing stuff from a Republican hack (Larry Kudlaw), InTrade counter-balances by re-publishing stuff from a liberal talking head, exiled in the F country.
  • There is a bug on this Inkling chart. Look at the Barack Obama event derivative, on the left; it goes over 100%.
  • I need your criticism.
  • NewsFutures Invents “Prediction Market Movies”.
  • ProTrade vs. Sports Derivative Exchange
  • The anti-BetFair Premium Charges video reappears on YouTube under a new account.
  • Sports Derivative Exchange
  • The anti-BetFair Premium Charges video has just been pulled down from YouTube.
  • “that growth rate just isn’t as high as I wish it would be.”
  • Robin Hanson = Deep Thinker + Good Samaritan
  • Andrew Gelman’s attempt to reduce the follow-the-polls frenzy by quantifying how much information about national and state swings is actually in pre-election polls
  • Bailout Plan
  • #2, just behind electoral-vote.com
  • Farewell to the Tech Buzz Game… and best wishes to YooPick.
  • Coalition for Internal Markets (CIM)
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: Google and Yahoo! have created the “Coalition for Internal Markets”.
  • For some stock market traders, InTrade is a dwarf, and John Delaney is a midget.
  • iPredict New Zealand featured on Radio New Zealand
  • Reuters partner with HubDub.
  • Cool Social Status Of The Day: “VP Decision Sciences”
  • Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets
  • With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney, who republishes an obsolete column from Republican hack Larry Kudlaw, has now an omelette on his Irish face —now that the Feds did indeed bail AIG out.
  • HubDub, the prediction exchange that Justin Wolfers didn’t cite in his Freakonomics/WSJ column
  • InTrade vs. the other prediction exchanges
  • While Wall Street is melting down, Martha Stewart introduces blogging to her TV audience.
  • Successful hedge fund executive spills the cranky juice on the head of the world’s #1 prediction market guru.
  • Canada
  • Emile stroke a nerve.
  • Harvard CS286r: Topics at the Interface between Computer Science and Economics
  • The Payments System Protection Act (H.R. 6870), approved today by the House Committee on Financial Services, would direct the Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve System, in consultation with the Attorney General, to appoint a special Administrative Law Judge to define the types of unlawful online gambling and conduct an economic impact study on the costs for compliance. The enactment of the bill would have the practical impact of delaying implementation of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (UIGEA) regulations through a process designed to ensure that the regulations do not impair the functioning of the U.S. payments system, or inappropriately prevent legal online transactions.
  • Midas Oracle is doing fine. Thanks for asking.
  • NewsFutures Enterprise Prediction Market Workshop, NYC, 10/27
  • CDA, MSR, the automated market makers, and the human market makers
  • Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.”
  • WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU SAYS THAT NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB’S SLAM AT THE PREDICTION MARKETS IS UNSCIENTIFIC.
  • WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU PINCHES THE NOSES OF NOBEL LAUREATE GARY NECKER AND JUDGE RICHARD POSNER.
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Jedi mind tricks didn’t work on Nigel Eccles.
  • NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: Prediction markets are for fools. They might work for a binary election, but not in the Fourth Quadrant.
  • WSJ on Best Buy’s enterprise prediction markets
  • Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America.
  • Damien Hirst is making a fortune at Sotheby’s… while Wall Street is melting down.
  • BETFAIR PR DEBACLE: a funny video making rounds at YouTube makes a mockery of their new “Premium Charges”
  • The BetFair “crisis board meeting” was a total invention of the Daily Mail, but the PR debacle is real.
  • AUDIO on the BetFair Premium Charges
  • US bank failure predictions
  • BetFair deny there was a “crisis board meeting” to clean up the mess created by the arrogant British incompetents who devised the “Premium Charges”.
  • Short-Term Prediction Markets
  • Papers on prediction markets listed on Yiling Chen’s Harvard webpage:
  • Can’t he just relax, listen to some Smooth Jazz, and enjoy the week-end, like the rest of us?
  • InTrade’s website is inaccessible, probably due to the high number of web visitors looking out for which US bank will fail next.
  • Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators?
  • Is Charles Plott a bigger thinker than Robin Hanson?
  • WORLD’S MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.
  • Are you PMA compatible? These 2 researchers are leading the way.
  • The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach
  • BetFair trade off simplicity for features.
  • WE ARE BETFAIR. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE. YOU WILL BE ASSIMILATED.
  • Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart.
  • Is this a sign that the BetFair prediction exchange and the BetFair blog are not the best sources of information on the 2008 US presidential elections?
  • WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.
  • The Sporting Exchange (BetFair & TradeFair) have hired a lobbyist to massage the European Union about real-money prediction markets, Internet betting, and Internet gambling.
  • 2 brand-new prediction exchanges you can live well without
  • With the “premium charges”, BetFair is asking the hogs to pony up. However, the collateral damage is that the concept of “exchange” is stabbed in the back.
  • Is Intrade out on a limb?
  • 2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets?
  • Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008
  • One day after BetFair’s PR move, the very active event derivative traders are still very displeased by the new BetFair “premium charges”.
  • The Sport Event Derivative Trading Blog Of The Day
  • BetFair and TradeFair’s trading engines
  • Just like Greg Mankiw, the BetFair event derivative traders don’t like tax hikes.
  • Multi-millionaire, Republican, professor of economics Greg Mankiw uses Jason Ruspini’s tax prediction markets at InTrade to assess the probability that a hypothetical John McCain presidency starting in 2009 assumes a raise in federal taxes.
  • UK billionaire Andrew Black (the BetFair co-founder) owns and manages a stable of 30+ Thoroughbred horses, but can’t stand anymore to hear about the event derivative traders whom he extracted wealth from.
  • #1 —above The Guardian… and far above BetFair.
  • Some vocal event derivative traders reject the new BetFair “premium charges” —as a matter of principle.
  • BetFair co-founder Andrew “Bert” Black’s blog is flooded (New Orleans-style) with comments from event derivative traders who question the rationality, logic, extent, fairness, true pupose and timing of the new “premium charges”.
  • Do BetFair really delete the BetFair forum account of any event derivative trader who dares speaking out against the new “premium charges”?
  • Would the traditional derivative exchanges be able to impose “premium charges”, just like BetFair have just done?
  • BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”, and their very active traders are up in arms. – Plus, do BetFair gag the critics?
  • The Value of Tom Brady?
  • Google and Yahoo! are sending to us almost one thousand web visitors searching for predictions on the next US elections, each weekday that God makes.
  • iPredict New Zealand
  • AskMarkets links its event derivative traders with FaceBook.
  • Hedging your political ads on InTrade or the Iowa Electronic Markets
  • If InTrade (and the other prediction exchanges, like TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures and HubDub) want to help us develop prediction market journalism, they should address the issue of what happens to their dynamic charts and chart widgets over time. Spot the “cannot generate chart” line in that Giberson post that is just one week old. Google Search does direct web visitors to the old blog posts (the ones that are linked to), and thus it would be great to have historical charts popping up there instead of this “cannot generate chart” line.
  • ROBERT SHILLER: “We need prediction markets…” on future house prices.
  • WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE.
  • Martha Stewart switches from TypePad to WordPress (the open-source blogging software that powers Midas Oracle).
  • Any chance to have a bigger chart widget that goes into feed readers?
  • Midas Oracle asked for dynamic charts with news markers. — Inkling Markets have just done it.
  • Questions to InTrade CEO John Delaney about InTrade .NET and InTrade .COM
  • 2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain
  • Midas Oracle is the only publication that defends the event derivative traders (even when they are too sarcastic, boisterous, or annoying) —at the risk of infuriating the prediction market big brass.
  • JASON RUSPINI FOR PRESIDENT: The “Web of Misery” tournament has ended, and Donna Hoffman will crown our Jason Ruspini with an olive tree branch-made kotinos.
  • Sports Trading Chatter .com
  • State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets
  • Polls versus Prediction Markets — Lance Fortnow Edition
  • The question that might well embarass David Pennock and Lance Fortnow
  • Should the real-money prediction exchanges (InTrade, TradeSports, HedgeStreet, BetFair and TradeFair) also outsource part of their consumer relationship management to unpaid volunteers?
  • New Yahoo! News election dashboard
  • The Sporting Exchange’s TradeFair (BetFair’s twin prediction exchange) is shooting to the Moon.
  • One Wall Street / Chicago fanboy hopes that political prediction markets will soon be proposed by the established derivative exchanges, who work more professionally than InTrade (in his view).
  • InTrade-TradeSports trader “Bert” pulverizes NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber into fine particles.
  • Like the New Hampshire prediction markets, the “Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential nominee” prediction markets (from InTrade, BetFair and HubDub) are bringing a bad reputation to the whole prediction market industry.
  • Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map
  • Google Chrome (part OS, part browser) is a game-changing information technology that the prediction market companies will have to adopt ASAP.
  • Wikipedia, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, McKinsey, NewsFutures, Google, CFM, Inkling, and IEM, top the Google Web Search results for the “prediction markets” query.
  • Yet another badge of honor that Freakonomics and Overcoming Whatever can only dream of.
  • WordPress allows the Midas Oracle members to embed a chart widget or a YouTube video in their comments.
  • An event derivative trader compares the trading costs of BetFair, InTrade, TradeSports and MatchBook.
  • Google Chrome is the future socle of the prediction markets.
  • TradeFair (the British equivalent of HedgeStreet) has opened 2 sets of prediction markets on UK and US politics.
  • How the “prediction markets” query has been googled, in the last 12 months
  • Question to the Midas Oracle readers who trade event derivatives on BetFair
  • HubDub’s Nigel Eccles ridiculizes Paul Kedrosky’s post bashing the prediction markets after the Sarah Palin upset.
  • InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem.
  • Paul Kedrosky … sucks. — Plus, Jason Trost is bashing InTrade and BetFair in order to boost his startup, Smarkets.
  • Democratic hatchet men disguised as “scholars” in the Press
  • 2 very funny headlines about Sarah Palin
  • Prediction markets, search engines, and social networking: a triangular marriage made in heaven.
  • Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence
  • The ubber president of the Pennock fan club responds to Felix Salmon.
  • Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, today’s real story is in the election winner markets.
  • InTrade and TradeSports plagued by server outage
  • HubDub policies I strongly object to
  • Sarah… Who?
  • Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.
  • Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
  • Anyone knows the reasoning behind HubDub suspending all their Republican VP prediction markets?
  • The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism.
  • Tim… Who?
  • Do you like InTrade DOT NET (www.intrade.net)?
  • InTrade DOT NET — www.intrade.net
  • Midas Oracle wants you to set your screen resolution very high.
  • InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, IEM, HubDub, NewsFutures, HSX = “Bet Exchange Services”
  • A noun, a verb, and POW
  • Gambling Commission and DCMS stance on the Alderney Gambling Control Commission, a regulator which condones its licensees’ unlawful behaviour
  • Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.
  • A famous VC is sneaking in at night on HubDub to test the waters by himself.
  • INTRADE-TRADESPORTS CEO JOHN DELANEY CENSORS CNBC ON YOUTUBE.
  • “PREDICTION MARKETS” IS SUGGESTION #2 AT GOOGLE WEB SEARCH FOR THE “PREDICTION” QUERY.
  • How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate?
  • Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?
  • We want the 2 CNBC videos about InTrade on YouTube, mister Delaney.
  • Joe Biden is a liar —a big-time liar.
  • Since the crowd is so wise, would one make money by betting systematically on the InTrade favorites (say, once they reach 50)?
  • We are now 100 members of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, and that includes InTrade CEO John Delaney and many other prediction market luminaries (scholars like Eric Zitzewitz or David Pennock and practitioners like Nigel Eccles, David Perry or Adam Siegel). So, when Robin Hanson emerges out of the Summer torpor and finally joins us, we will be 101 —if I can count correctly.
  • It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.
  • The second CNBC video on InTrade’s prediction markets is up and running.
  • Prediction markets in Hungary
  • WeatherBill C.E.O. David Friedberg hopes to persuade [!?] the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) to change the requirement that currently limits weather derivative traders to accredited investors with a minimum net worth of $1 million.
  • CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrade’s prediction markets.
  • Please, take part in this survey. If you read this within your feed reader, maybe you will need to go to this post to take part in the poll.
  • I support sport event derivative trading (a.k.a. sport betting), no matter what. — I support TradeSports and BetFair, no matter what.
  • Why didn’t you bet with the crowd, then? You could have made a killing at the time when Joe Biden was under 50.
  • Is Koleman Strumpf a provocator?
  • All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.
  • The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.
  • JOE BIDEN ON RUDY GIULIANI: “There’s only three things he mentions in a sentence —a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There’s nothing else! There’s nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. He’s genuinely not qualified to be president.”
  • Never trust a politician.
  • Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).
  • A rapid quizz for the readers of Midas Oracle — and, in particular, Michael Giberson (our chief economist)
  • Waiting for Barack Obama’s choice for VP candidate
  • The pointer is from Stacy Herbert (Max Keiser’s very personal assistant).
  • Bloomberg says WSJ says Tim Kaine is Barack Obama’s VP.
  • While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.
  • Xpree vs. Inkling Markets
  • Is Justin Wolfers part of the open-science movement?
  • Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh.
  • Inkling Markets grabs a VP away from Northern Trust.
  • Real Clear Politics, the political website in bed with InTrade, is among the most popular US news outlets.
  • Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
  • PREDICTION MARKET STARTUP GRABS REKNOWNED RESEARCHER AWAY FROM HP LABS. — TIPPING POINT FOR THE PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY?
  • Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
  • Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?
  • Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
  • ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.
  • Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
  • HIRING CODING MERCENARIES TO BUILD UP A HUBDUB KILLER
  • Answering Koleman Strumpf’s riddle
  • WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.
  • Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
  • The “crowd” needs a good collective verdict mechanism. (At Midas Oracle, we value the market mechanisms, of course.)
  • NIGEL ECCLES IS ACTIVELY PREPARING TO FLEE EUROPE AND LAND HUBDUB IN SILICON VALLEY.
  • CODING MERCENARIES SOUGHT BY HUBDUB KILLER ON THE CHEAP
  • Nigel Eccles guest-blogged at TechCrunch UK that the spot at DEMO 2008 cost HubDub 18,500 bucks ($18,500). Was it worth it? Did that Scottish smart a** overpay? What do you think?
  • Max Keiser says on Iranian TV that HubDub’s play-money prediction market on oil price has more predictive power than the oil derivative markets (oil futures markets).
  • “PREDICTION MARKETS” OFF THE GARTNER HYPE CYCLE 2008
  • OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub —but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.
  • HubDub’s Nigel Eccles (pictured below, smiling widely like if he had just performed a good prank) explains to his fellow citizens (well, sorry, the Britons call themselves “subjects”) in great details what he did to surpass Emile Servan-Schreiber’s NewsFutures in less than 9 months.
  • The prediction markets give us the ability to look into the future.
  • Mine is 2.6 times longer than John Delaney’s one.
  • Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.
  • So, now, when our good friend Alex Kirtland (a talented Internet usability expert, and a sweet friend of the prediction markets) blogs favorably about InTrade, TradeSports, or John Delaney, we should take it with a grain of salt. –> $$$
  • Presumptuous
  • SocialPredictor is a piece of crap.
  • I met with Alan Greenspan. He reads Midas Oracle on a daily basis. I have the photo to prove it. Take a look.
  • You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, it’s about time that the prediction market industry does the “product endorsement by celebrity” marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.
  • CHIC TOILET: Bo Cowgill, like all the Google employees in California, has the option to wash his delicate rear area, wash his precious front area, dry, perform something called “wand cleaning”, and so much more.
  • Equity Financing Documents For Prediction Market StartUps (like Inkling or HubDub)
  • Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.
  • Prediction Market Proposal
  • Keyword Of The Day — Wednesday Edition
  • NBC Nightly News ran a story on Monday nite about John Edwards’ lies. And today, the National Enquirer has new revelations. If I were John Delaney of InTrade, or a super user at HubDub, I would have a field day creating some prediction markets about the definitive demise of John Edwards.
  • This social media graph is all bullshit. They put HubDub under “crowdsourced content” (like Digg), because that’s the P.R. bullshit that Nigel Eccles sent out at inception to gullible journalists and credulous bloggers. As a matter of fact, if you look closely at the recent evolutions of the play-money prediction exchange HubDub, the social networking component (think FaceBook) is where the real focus is on.
  • Cat got Jed Christiansen’s tongue?
  • What Dean LeBaron should do to have a more usable website. + Who is Dean LeBaron and why does Midas Oracle get to publish about him?
  • InTrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.
  • What prediction market software improvement did Alan Greenspan suggest to Xpree’s Mat Fogarty?
  • Enough already with “coming soon”. I am fed up with promises. I want this prediction market TV journalism project to be executed this year, in 2008.
  • When Robin Hanson realizes that ALL the prediction market luminaries BUT HIM have joined the LinkedIn group on “Prediction Markets”, he will rush to ask for an invite.
  • FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.
  • Since 2002, when research was formally separated from investment banking, the quality of research on Wall Street has deteriorated, and many top analysts have left the business.
  • BetFair angel investor Sean Park says that Jed Christiansen’s anti-sport comment to the CFTC stinks like rotten dead fish under the Egyptian sun.
  • Did HSX co-founder Max Keiser give up on his prediction market TV journalism project? His website, predictionmarkets.tv, now redirects to a clunky YouTube video webpage.
  • Big Brother
  • Enterprise prediction markets in Israel
  • 2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition
  • Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
  • Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?
  • For those who have been wondering why the hell BetFair suddendly decided to promote Stats On Sport on their websites…
  • On top of the $114,000 given to her by John Edwards’ political action committee, $15,000 a month has been paid to Rielle Hunter (Lisa Druck) by Fred Baron, who was John Edwards’ national finance chair —so that the mistress (a de facto deluxe prostitute) shuts up her face about the affair and the baby.
  • Thinking they would fight poverty and solve the “2 Americas” problem, the John Edwards donors ended up giving (thru his political action committee) $114,000 to his mistress (a de facto prostitute whom he said he “didn’t love”) on the pretext of producing 4 YouTube videos (on a mere 2 1/2 minutes long).
  • Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete
  • Too much seed money could kill HubDub —and the other prediction market startups.
  • Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
  • Why the HubDub model is superior to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, HSX and NewsFutures’s ones
  • Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
  • Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
  • Free Money On The Table At InTrade
  • Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
  • Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle
  • InTrade’s US Recession 2008
  • What Jean-Claude Kommer (a patented prediction market gadfly) thinks of Robin Hanson’s conditional prediction markets subsidized by Peter McCluskey
  • “Our prediction markets have not had a very respectable accuracy on anything related to our main competitor.”
  • Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets
  • Don’t you love Google Analytics? I can track what Bloomberg spied on, here, yesterday. (Big media spy on us on a daily basis, web stats show.)
  • The guy has gained 5 connections since I featured his LinkedIn profile, one week ago. — (I can make or destroy reputations. My blog, my call.)
  • The HubDub bloggers should sign their posts with their full name.
  • I HATE THE USE OF PSEUDONYMS BY BLOGGERS. I HATE BLOGS WRITTEN BY PEOPLE WHO HIDE THEIR TRUE IDENTITY.
  • Who is the Steve Jobs of the prediction market industry?
  • How Robin Hanson is dealing with his gadfly: He is trying to extirp him off the Web. (I am not sure the gadfly will take the bait. He seems slightly paranoid.)
  • Google PageRank of the main Prediction Market Consultants
  • The Jena 6
  • CNN closed their 2 VP prediction markets… and immediately opened 2 not-brand-new VP prediction markets, with a full listing of candidate names, this time.
  • Google PageRank of the main Prediction Exchanges
  • Eric Crampton’s Humor
  • Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard.
  • The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
  • THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
  • Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
  • Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
  • Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (”Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
  • If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • The Alderney Gambling Control Commission: you follow the rules but you still don’t get paid. Why bother with regulation at all?
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair gives us an opportunity to look deep into the caldron of the wisdom of crowds.
  • We Plug This British Betting Blog On Midas Oracle Because We Like Its Name.
  • 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
  • Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your résumé / profile.
  • You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
  • Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
  • I did drop BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
  • I dropped BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
  • I am dropping BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets —until they re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
  • 2 web links that are not about prediction markets —but which you should check.
  • HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System
  • The Internet usability of play-money prediction exchange HubDub is AWESOME.
  • SPOOKY MARKETING: HubDub steals (legally) your list of contacts stored on Google E-Mail, and sends them P.R. inciting them to come trading on the HubDub play-money prediction markets.
  • “I am a news junkie, so much so that I invested hard cash –not HD$– in the development of this site. The idea is great, the team are great and I am sure the future of HubDub is great!”
  • XXX-rated user profile of one HubDub trader
  • Speaking of HubDub, their user profile webzone is AWESOME.
  • WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE (PLEASE, DO CREDIT “MIDAS ORACLE” FOR THE SCOOP): Here’s what Nigel Eccles drinks when he works on the HubDub mission statement.
  • “Markets are an open invitation to search out and fix bias and walk away with money.”
  • BBC’s Panorama, the most famous investigative TV news show of British television (the equivalent of CBS’s 60 Minutes in the US), will air a segment on sport corruption and insider trading in the world of betting, on Wednesday, July 30, 2008.
  • I am trying to create a “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn. I’ll keep you updated on whether they approve it.
  • HubDub will get quoted in the future, just like the Hollywood Stock Exchange is, today… — PROBABILITY = 33%, AT BEST.
  • Prediction Markets
  • Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.
  • Google Knol is not bad, as a web publishing platform —but I still prefer WordPress and MediaWiki.
  • Each week, Predictify will ask a VIP to submit a question for the crowd to answer.
  • Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.
  • Excerpts of the BetFair’s answers to their traders’ questions
  • Why Robin Hanson is right to freak out about the upcoming CFTC ruling on “event markets” (prediction markets)
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair
  • BetFair traders are getting ready for the BOOM.
  • I was not drinking cranky juice when I told you that FaceBook can be leveraged to compete with InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub and the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
  • A documentary film is going to be made about the book “Freakonomics”. The problem is that the film won’t be made by one able and focused director —but rather by a bunch of folks, whose implication in the whole project will be ultra minimal. The expected result of that idiocy is that their documentary will be an uninteresting mosaic of short and superficial takes, and will surely tank at the box office, like all the Paris Hilton movies did. The Hollywood Stock Exchange traders are no idiots: they are sensing that that Freakonomics project is a stinking lemon, and they are selling the event derivative like it is bubonic plague.
  • “Possum”, one of the biggest and most well known political bloggers in Justin Wolfers’ country (i.e., Australia), has an amazing InTrade webpage. Check it out.
  • The only legal form of Internet wagering in the U.S. is pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing.
  • Bob is a well greased, full-throttle petition machine.
  • Michael Weiss of Gawker is misinformed about the wisdom of crowds.
  • Max Keiser’s politics is controversial. But, as a journalist, he is a genius. Market-based probabilistic predictions (whether it’s play money or real money) are now part of his daily punditry toolbox.
  • GLOBAL WARMING… SOLVED.
  • Steve Levitt and Koleman Strumpf in the news
  • Robin Hanson fanboy (who blogged many times about prediction markets on OvercomingWhatever) now tells his astonished readers what I have long suspected: He has never been truly interested in prediction markets.
  • Monitoring the wisdom of crowds
  • Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets
  • A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma — Summer 2008 Edition
  • I don’t fully agree with Max Keiser’s politics, but I do love his video prediction market journalism. Max, you’re great, here.
  • Why I am dropping InTrade from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets
  • Domestic Box Office Receipts (2008-07-18~20) – Batman: The Dark Knight to gross over $130.0M in opening weekend.
  • Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) discussing the Weekend Box Office and Summer Releases and predictions on Fox Business.
  • The BetFair’s P.R. department is run by somebody who is allergic to blogging.
  • Posting On Midas Oracle versus Presenting At The Third WorkShop
  • The prediction markets have started off quite beautifully, and the CFTC bureaucrats won’t be able to stop them.
  • Blogging is a kind of magic. Well, at least, it works on InTrade.
  • Wikipedia edits will have to be approved, first, before being published for good.
  • A good résumé, in the field of prediction markets, should mention and link to “Midas Oracle”, of course. You, too, could be part of the gang. Join us today.
  • The Dark Knight
  • Meet one of the few “notable exceptions” whom InTrade CEO John Delaney was talking about in his comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets).
  • Yet another attempt at legalizing Internet betting and gambling in the United States of America
  • For Once
  • In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.
  • Andrew Black (front) & Edward Wray (back)
  • The accuracy of prediction markets makes them hard to ignore.
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) was so good that even a BetFair shareholder loved it.
  • The Germans In Germany & The Prediction Exchanges In Great Britain
  • Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.
  • Pssttt… Did I tell you that I like InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)? I can’t remember whether I did tell you that already. (I do suffer memory lapses, sometimes. I know it’s a common affliction, because I see that Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, just before they signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition, completely forgot that they were on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America. A lapse in memory, probably.)
  • Who are the “notable exceptions” whom InTrade CEO John Delaney talked about in his comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets). HINT, HINT: That’s not Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers.
  • How InTrade CEO John Delaney tried to undo the great damage done to the prediction market industry by Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers)
  • How InTrade CEO John Delaney rightfully spanked the posteriors of Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers)
  • How InTrade CEO John Delaney rightfully slammed Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers) as hypocrite and short-sighted —and how he told the CFTC to put Bob’s petition (signed by Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, among others) in the trash can (where it belongs).
  • Steve Roman, petit plaisantin, a toujours le mot pour rire.
  • What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)
  • Storms vs. Hurricanes
  • I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?
  • Forrester recommend to add enterprise prediction markets in the company toolbox.
  • Where will the political prediction markets be indexed in BetFair’s new menu…???… I can’t see them on that demo…
  • ALL OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS… SOLVED.
  • “InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.”
  • Preview of WordPress 2.6
  • How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French —and how Ed Murray became BetFair’s best friend (NOT A HOAX).
  • Is the BetFair’s brand-new bet-matching logic (which matches bets across related selections) the first time a prediction exchange manages to increase liquidity WITHOUT augmenting the number of traders or relying on an automated market maker?
  • In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.
  • InTrade Spotting — Monday Morning Edition
  • Forecasting Principles should index BusinessWeek.
  • Caveat Bettor…
  • Yet another prediction market newbie who should be meeting with Robin Hanson one on one to get a little injection about conditional prediction markets and how they could be useful for BOTH private decision makers AND public policy makers.
  • A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma — CFTC Edition
  • We are now awaiting the CFTC’s decision on “event markets” (prediction markets)…
  • Why Midas Oracle will have to drop InTrade
  • Computer beats human experts at poker…
  • Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange on Fox Business
  • Watch Jeopardy contestants answer questions from the Hollywood Stock Exchange category.
  • The British case for regulating political betting
  • James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, sums up his book.
  • James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, talks to the Midas Oracle readers.
  • FOREIGN OIL DEPENDANCY: Will the next US president adopt T. Boone Pickens’ 10-year energy plan?
  • “In its upcoming proceedings, therefore, the CFTC should exempt prediction markets from regulations that would prevent them from flourishing, like requiring that such shares be traded on designated commodity exchanges.”
  • 2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College
  • HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles teaches you startup lessons.
  • COALITION OF REGULATED EXCHANGES SUBMIT A JOINT COMMENT TO THE CFTC ON “EVENT MARKETS” —ONE DAY AFTER THE DEADLINE.
  • INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. — Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.
  • He is not the “Master Of All Universes”, he is low key, he blogs only once a month, his DPMM lost it to MSR (one to many thousands, and soon, one to many hundreds of thousands), his set of search engine prediction markets at InTrade is a nuclear disaster of Biblical proportions, his Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game is a hole into the ground that reaches the center of the Earth, but… so many people truly LOVE him.
  • Maverick
  • Live Stream Audio of the Third WorkShop on Prediction Markets?
  • Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)
  • Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)
  • Why did Chris Masse opted for the “excluded commodities” and the DCMs way, since we know that stringent CFTC regulations can kill our lite, real-money prediction markets?
  • The fact that the Prediction Market Industry Association didn’t submit a comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)…
  • I come in agreement with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s comment to the CFTC.
  • The last comments are up on the CFTC website, finally.
  • InTrade CEO John Delaney sends a good comment to the CFTC.
  • Robin Hanson’s purity test is based on an absurd principle.
  • NewsFutures is the most usable prediction exchange I know of.
  • HubDub question
  • Implied Prices for Presidential Decision-Aid Markets
  • Free Speech in Event Market Claims
  • What I said to BusinessWeek
  • The CFTC Deadline . . . Wavers
  • We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).
  • What I think of Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.
  • What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)
  • Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)?
  • Here’s how to create a huge buzz in the Blogosphere about the prediction markets and multiply the web links pointing to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, Betdaq, Iowa Electonic Markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange, NewsFutures, Reality Markets, YooPick or HubDub websites.
  • I answered the political test designed by the “Advocates For Self-Government” people. Here’s what I got.
  • What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”
  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • My response to the CFTC on event contracts
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
  • Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator
  • Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The upcoming CFTC ruling may come as thunder and lightning —or may not. That is the question. Will they exempt or will they regulate?
  • PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
  • What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC
  • The freshest comments sent to the CFTC
  • Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.
  • “To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”
  • How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only)
  • HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook
  • Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (”the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (”the wolves”) will BBQ them.
  • WHEN CHRIS MASSE SENDS YOU AN E-MAIL AT WORK, BE ON YOUR GUARD.
  • Exposing Chris Masse’s manhood —once again.
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 4 days. We have 4 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The Midas Oracle readers use Mozilla FireFox 3.
  • 50%
  • The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is not a friend of the prediction markets. Nor is the ISDA.
  • We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.
  • Will those 2 exchanges be affected by the upcoming CFTC ruling?
  • COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What should be expected, next.
  • My question to Jason Ruspini
  • The freshest comments to the CFTC
  • The NewsFutures sheriff takes his job too seriously.
  • People obsess too much with Robin Hanson, if you want my opinion.
  • WORDPRESS: In favor of self pings
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 5 days. We have 5 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Robin Hanson, please, jot down “February 4, 2009″ in your Google Calendar.
  • Robin Hanson’s buddy in the Silicon Valley strikes it rich.
  • Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago
  • “The economist Robin Hanson predicts that some of our computronium-based progeny may colonize the cosmos in a peaceful, cooperative manner, like nice liberal Democrats.”
  • The brand-new InTrade widget is a nuclear disaster —Chernobyl type.
  • Commenting on Midas Oracle
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Reality-Mined Prediction Markets
  • Nigel, your “very nice poll widget” can’t be seen within my feed reader (Google Reader). Put it in the trash can, will you.
  • “Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: a governmental regulatory body which is worthless and ineffectual.”
  • Justin Wolfers = Open Researcher
  • How come John Salvatier’s comment to the CFTC has not appeared on their website already?
  • “Don’t ask the experts. Ask the prediction markets. They know better.”
  • The World Is Flat.
  • James Surowiecki was in Texas (Michael Giberson’s new land), yesterday, spinning educators (interested in technology) about prediction markets and collective intelligence.
  • The news article that John Delaney will read with great attention this Monday morning
  • Exchange for trading digital bits
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • How to optimize your prediction market blog (e.g., Midas Oracle, Caveat Bettor) or prediction exchange website (e.g., InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub) for Google Web Search —and all the other search engines out there.
  • One word is missing (”Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.
  • A letter to the CFTC about for-profit prediction market exchanges
  • Do you still have trouble commenting on Midas Oracle?
  • The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 8 days. We have 8 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address
  • “Chris, I wanted to make a comment on Midas Oracle, but the anti-spam mechanism ate my comment.”
  • Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
  • Will InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair be using this clock, one day?
  • “I no longer recommend BetFair.”
  • Will the CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money Prediction Markets?
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
  • Averaging One’s Guesses
  • Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
  • A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The Numbers Guy
  • Bob Barr markets
  • The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets
  • VP conditional probabilities
  • The CFTC Readings Of The Day —Thursday Morning Edition
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 11 days. We have 11 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).
  • Fairness Doctrine prediction markets
  • 2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too.
  • Web Forums on Prediction Markets
  • Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
  • QUIZZ OF THE DAY: Which blog is the most open minded?
  • Prediction Markets TV — Will the controversial but indispensable Max Keiser (ex-HSX) stay true to his purpose, or will he f*** it up?
  • My New York Times
  • What’s the best gift?
  • COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini
  • CME’s Economic Event Futures
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 12 days. We have 12 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech
  • After Iraq, the neo-cons’ next target is Iran.
  • Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.
  • The LinkedIn groups the Midas Oracle readers want me to belong to
  • The CFTC extends its regulatory arm to… the City of London.
  • Xpree Blog
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 13 days. We have 13 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • 2 betting blogs to check… if you are in Great Britain…
  • PREDICTION MARKETS: Robin Hanson & Justin Wolfers
  • The Terror Finance Blog
  • Playing fantasy sports is not gambling. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act includes a specific exemption for fantasy sports, provided the prizes are determined in advance and the imaginary teams don’t correspond to any real teams.
  • Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism.
  • Inkling Markets’ Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name
  • BetFair created the world’s largest ad banner —as certified by the Guinness Book of World Records.
  • Why Emile Servan-Schreiber is on to something with Bet 2 Give —and why InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair should each have a philanthropy wallet.
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 14 days. We have 14 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The purpose of X2 is to identify future disruptions, opportunities, and competitive landscapes related to the content and dynamics of global science and technology innovation; to develop a new platform for understanding global innovation trends; and to present this information to policy- and decision-makers, as well as the general public, in a useful form.
  • BetFair created the world’s largest ad banner —as certified by the Guinness Book of World Records.
  • LET’S REVISIT HISTORY: In May 2007, Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff laughed in Paul Wolfowitz’s face.
  • Who will write to the CFTC?
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 15 days. We have 15 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 16 days. We have 16 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Brand-new scientific report certifies that starting off the Large Hadron Collider is NOT going to destroy the Earth. Glad to hear that. It means that any bets entertained on the LHC issue will be able to be resolved and winnings to be collected in the end.
  • Small Business = GOOD — Big Business = BAD
  • The letter David Pennock will never send out —well, we hope.
  • Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.
  • Here’s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —separate the 2 functions.
  • Ugly things happened before BetFair was invented
  • Tiny API delay for non-UK customers of BetFair —since all international BetFair bettors, traders and gamblers are now served from Malta, not from London.
  • CLOCK IS RUNNING FAST: 17 days to go, if we want to counter AEI’s push for not-for-profit prediction exchanges.
  • In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.
  • NOT-FOR-PROFIT… or… FOR-PROFIT… That is the question.
  • CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”.
  • Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”?
  • CraigList [INTERSECTION SYMBOL HERE] Prediction Markets
  • OPEN THREAD: What do you think of the CFTC’s concept release on “event markets”
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: How the US prediction market scene will look like after the CFTC ruling on “event markets”
  • LINKEDIN GROUP: Multi-Asset Class Algorithmic Trading
  • OPEN-SOURCE PREDICTION EXCHANGE: How Smarkets is going to eat BetFair’s lunch —well, they hope.
  • VIDEO: Max Keiser’s attempt at predicting the future —subjectively
  • The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell
  • How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”
  • How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets
  • One Robin Hanson fanboy admits that prediction markets, by essence, can’t foretell meta disasters implicating the destruction of all world-wide prediction markets themselves.
  • “Since 2005, the Commission’s staff has received a substantial number of requests for guidance on the propriety of offering and trading financial agreements that may primarily function as information aggregation vehicles.”
  • Can We Foresee To Disagree?
  • InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair trading … thru your BlackBerry
  • Why do BetFair Games (regulated in Malta, E.U.) have a timer on games?
  • Multi-Asset Class Algorithmic Trading
  • A lawsuit has been filed to prevent the Large Hadron Collider from being turned on for fear that it might destroy the earth or perhaps even the universe.
  • One Year Ago On Midas Oracle
  • Please, don’t call them “predictive markets”.
  • CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
  • Our prediction market luminaries signed Bob’s petition —and the losers are InTrade, TradeSports and BetFair.
  • The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America
  • CFTC’s no-action letters to the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)
  • You’ll love that blog.
  • Robin Hanson fanboy and InTrade trader Patri Freidman’s outing —as one of the “sexiest geeks alive”
  • Is the mechanism outputting Justin Wolfers as the most cited prediction market researcher completely rotten?
  • COLD FUSION: Before you go trading on InTrade, do solve that, first —if you can.
  • Kudos to BetFair’s e-mail marketing team?
  • Conditional prediction markets about oil price and SegWay sales… Like the idea, Robin Hanson?
  • Justin Wolfers [*] is the most cited prediction market economist
  • The Orb @ Texas Tech University
  • IS IT SAFE TO LOCATE A PREDICTION EXCHANGE NEAR A RIVER???
  • RIVER RISING. POWER PLANT CLOSED. IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS AT RISK? DEVELOPING…
  • U.S. COAST GUARDS DEPLOYED TO SAVE THE IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKETS
  • VIDEO: The financial markets hacker who will impress Jason Ruspini
  • VIDEO: WeatherBill caught on tape
  • You, the Midas Oracle readers, are a bunch of lazy bastards…!!!… — Take that, loafers…!!!…
  • Prediction Markets within the Forecasting Community
  • Devoting the whole NBC Nightly News bulletin to Tim Russert’s passing was worst than beaming out porn.
  • COLD FUSION: The purpose of this post is to give you the scientific explainer link I forgot to publish (at inception) in my previous post.
  • Forecasting Election Outcomes
  • GOOD NEWS: Ron Paul is now blogging. — THE CHERRY ON TOP OF THE CAKE: Ron Paul is using WordPress.org… just like Midas Oracle does.
  • InTrade’s sudden and puzzled interest in… alchemy…!!!
  • Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
  • INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
  • Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA)
  • Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.
  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 US Electoral Map Prediction
  • What public interests are served by event contracts?
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally