Chris F. Masse
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The Midas Oracle Posts
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InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, IEM, HubDub, NewsFutures, HSX = “Bet Exchange Services”
A noun, a verb, and POW
Gambling Commission and DCMS stance on the Alderney Gambling Control Commission, a regulator which condones its licensees’ unlawful behaviour
Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.
A famous VC is sneaking in at night on HubDub to test the waters by himself.
INTRADE-TRADESPORTS CEO JOHN DELANEY CENSORS CNBC ON YOUTUBE.
“PREDICTION MARKETS” IS SUGGESTION #2 AT GOOGLE WEB SEARCH FOR THE “PREDICTION” QUERY.
How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate?
Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ?
We want the 2 CNBC videos about InTrade on YouTube, mister Delaney.
Joe Biden is a liar —a big-time liar.
Since the crowd is so wise, would one make money by betting systematically on the InTrade favorites (say, once they reach 50)?
We are now 100 members of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, and that includes InTrade CEO John Delaney and many other prediction market luminaries (scholars like Eric Zitzewitz or David Pennock and practitioners like Nigel Eccles, David Perry or Adam Siegel). So, when Robin Hanson emerges out of the Summer torpor and finally joins us, we will be 101 —if I can count correctly.
It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.
The second CNBC video on InTrade’s prediction markets is up and running.
Prediction markets in Hungary
WeatherBill C.E.O. David Friedberg hopes to persuade [!?] the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) to change the requirement that currently limits weather derivative traders to accredited investors with a minimum net worth of $1 million.
CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrade’s prediction markets.
Please, take part in this survey. If you read this within your feed reader, maybe you will need to go to this post to take part in the poll.
I support sport event derivative trading (a.k.a. sport betting), no matter what. — I support TradeSports and BetFair, no matter what.
Why didn’t you bet with the crowd, then? You could have made a killing at the time when Joe Biden was under 50.
Is Koleman Strumpf a provocator?
All the prediction market webpages of all the (real-money or play-money) prediction exchanges should be indexed forever by the search engines (e.g., Google) —just like HudDub’s ones are.
The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.
JOE BIDEN ON RUDY GIULIANI: “There’s only three things he mentions in a sentence —a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There’s nothing else! There’s nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. He’s genuinely not qualified to be president.”
Never trust a politician.
Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).
A rapid quizz for the readers of Midas Oracle — and, in particular, Michael Giberson (our chief economist)
Waiting for Barack Obama’s choice for VP candidate
The pointer is from Stacy Herbert (Max Keiser’s very personal assistant).
Bloomberg says WSJ says Tim Kaine is Barack Obama’s VP.
While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.
Xpree vs. Inkling Markets
Is Justin Wolfers part of the open-science movement?
Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh.
Inkling Markets grabs a VP away from Northern Trust.
Real Clear Politics, the political website in bed with InTrade, is among the most popular US news outlets.
Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
PREDICTION MARKET STARTUP GRABS REKNOWNED RESEARCHER AWAY FROM HP LABS. — TIPPING POINT FOR THE PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY?
Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?
Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.
Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
HIRING CODING MERCENARIES TO BUILD UP A HUBDUB KILLER
Answering Koleman Strumpf’s riddle
WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker.
Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
The “crowd” needs a good collective verdict mechanism. (At Midas Oracle, we value the market mechanisms, of course.)
NIGEL ECCLES IS ACTIVELY PREPARING TO FLEE EUROPE AND LAND HUBDUB IN SILICON VALLEY.
CODING MERCENARIES SOUGHT BY HUBDUB KILLER ON THE CHEAP
Nigel Eccles guest-blogged at TechCrunch UK that the spot at DEMO 2008 cost HubDub 18,500 bucks ($18,500). Was it worth it? Did that Scottish smart a** overpay? What do you think?
Max Keiser says on Iranian TV that HubDub’s play-money prediction market on oil price has more predictive power than the oil derivative markets (oil futures markets).
“PREDICTION MARKETS” OFF THE GARTNER HYPE CYCLE 2008
OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub —but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.
HubDub’s Nigel Eccles (pictured below, smiling widely like if he had just performed a good prank) explains to his fellow citizens (well, sorry, the Britons call themselves “subjects”) in great details what he did to surpass Emile Servan-Schreiber’s NewsFutures in less than 9 months.
The prediction markets give us the ability to look into the future.
Mine is 2.6 times longer than John Delaney’s one.
Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.
So, now, when our good friend Alex Kirtland (a talented Internet usability expert, and a sweet friend of the prediction markets) blogs favorably about InTrade, TradeSports, or John Delaney, we should take it with a grain of salt. –> $$$
Presumptuous
SocialPredictor is a piece of crap.
I met with Alan Greenspan. He reads Midas Oracle on a daily basis. I have the photo to prove it. Take a look.
You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, it’s about time that the prediction market industry does the “product endorsement by celebrity” marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.
CHIC TOILET: Bo Cowgill, like all the Google employees in California, has the option to wash his delicate rear area, wash his precious front area, dry, perform something called “wand cleaning”, and so much more.
Equity Financing Documents For Prediction Market StartUps (like Inkling or HubDub)
Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.
Prediction Market Proposal
Keyword Of The Day — Wednesday Edition
NBC Nightly News ran a story on Monday nite about John Edwards’ lies. And today, the National Enquirer has new revelations. If I were John Delaney of InTrade, or a super user at HubDub, I would have a field day creating some prediction markets about the definitive demise of John Edwards.
This social media graph is all bullshit. They put HubDub under “crowdsourced content” (like Digg), because that’s the P.R. bullshit that Nigel Eccles sent out at inception to gullible journalists and credulous bloggers. As a matter of fact, if you look closely at the recent evolutions of the play-money prediction exchange HubDub, the social networking component (think FaceBook) is where the real focus is on.
Cat got Jed Christiansen’s tongue?
What Dean LeBaron should do to have a more usable website. + Who is Dean LeBaron and why does Midas Oracle get to publish about him?
InTrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.
What prediction market software improvement did Alan Greenspan suggest to Xpree’s Mat Fogarty?
Enough already with “coming soon”. I am fed up with promises. I want this prediction market TV journalism project to be executed this year, in 2008.
When Robin Hanson realizes that ALL the prediction market luminaries BUT HIM have joined the LinkedIn group on “Prediction Markets”, he will rush to ask for an invite.
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.
Since 2002, when research was formally separated from investment banking, the quality of research on Wall Street has deteriorated, and many top analysts have left the business.
BetFair angel investor Sean Park says that Jed Christiansen’s anti-sport comment to the CFTC stinks like rotten dead fish under the Egyptian sun.
Did HSX co-founder Max Keiser give up on his prediction market TV journalism project? His website, predictionmarkets.tv, now redirects to a clunky YouTube video webpage.
Big Brother
Enterprise prediction markets in Israel
2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition
Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?
For those who have been wondering why the hell BetFair suddendly decided to promote Stats On Sport on their websites…
On top of the $114,000 given to her by John Edwards’ political action committee, $15,000 a month has been paid to Rielle Hunter (Lisa Druck) by Fred Baron, who was John Edwards’ national finance chair —so that the mistress (a de facto deluxe prostitute) shuts up her face about the affair and the baby.
Thinking they would fight poverty and solve the “2 Americas” problem, the John Edwards donors ended up giving (thru his political action committee) $114,000 to his mistress (a de facto prostitute whom he said he “didn’t love”) on the pretext of producing 4 YouTube videos (on a mere 2 1/2 minutes long).
Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete
Too much seed money could kill HubDub —and the other prediction market startups.
Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
Why the HubDub model is superior to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, HSX and NewsFutures’s ones
Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
Free Money On The Table At InTrade
Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle
InTrade’s US Recession 2008
What Jean-Claude Kommer (a patented prediction market gadfly) thinks of Robin Hanson’s conditional prediction markets subsidized by Peter McCluskey
“Our prediction markets have not had a very respectable accuracy on anything related to our main competitor.”
Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets
Don’t you love Google Analytics? I can track what Bloomberg spied on, here, yesterday. (Big media spy on us on a daily basis, web stats show.)
The guy has gained 5 connections since I featured his LinkedIn profile, one week ago. — (I can make or destroy reputations. My blog, my call.)
The HubDub bloggers should sign their posts with their full name.
I HATE THE USE OF PSEUDONYMS BY BLOGGERS. I HATE BLOGS WRITTEN BY PEOPLE WHO HIDE THEIR TRUE IDENTITY.
Who is the Steve Jobs of the prediction market industry?
How Robin Hanson is dealing with his gadfly: He is trying to extirp him off the Web. (I am not sure the gadfly will take the bait. He seems slightly paranoid.)
Google PageRank of the main Prediction Market Consultants
The Jena 6
CNN closed their 2 VP prediction markets… and immediately opened 2 not-brand-new VP prediction markets, with a full listing of candidate names, this time.
Google PageRank of the main Prediction Exchanges
Eric Crampton’s Humor
Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard.
The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (”Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
The Alderney Gambling Control Commission: you follow the rules but you still don’t get paid. Why bother with regulation at all?
The John Edwards Non-Affair gives us an opportunity to look deep into the caldron of the wisdom of crowds.
We Plug This British Betting Blog On Midas Oracle Because We Like Its Name.
24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…
Do join the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, if you have a strong interest in the prediction markets or if you work in the prediction market industry. It’s free, and that’s a way for the LinkedIn visitors browsing stuff about prediction markets to stumble upon your résumé / profile.
You can now join the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets.
Nigel Eccles says that HubDub generates “data on peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events”.
I did drop BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
I dropped BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
I am dropping BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets —until they re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
2 web links that are not about prediction markets —but which you should check.
HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System
The Internet usability of play-money prediction exchange HubDub is AWESOME.
SPOOKY MARKETING: HubDub steals (legally) your list of contacts stored on Google E-Mail, and sends them P.R. inciting them to come trading on the HubDub play-money prediction markets.
“I am a news junkie, so much so that I invested hard cash –not HD$– in the development of this site. The idea is great, the team are great and I am sure the future of HubDub is great!”
XXX-rated user profile of one HubDub trader
Speaking of HubDub, their user profile webzone is AWESOME.
WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE (PLEASE, DO CREDIT “MIDAS ORACLE” FOR THE SCOOP): Here’s what Nigel Eccles drinks when he works on the HubDub mission statement.
“Markets are an open invitation to search out and fix bias and walk away with money.”
BBC’s Panorama, the most famous investigative TV news show of British television (the equivalent of CBS’s 60 Minutes in the US), will air a segment on sport corruption and insider trading in the world of betting, on Wednesday, July 30, 2008.
I am trying to create a “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn. I’ll keep you updated on whether they approve it.
HubDub will get quoted in the future, just like the Hollywood Stock Exchange is, today… — PROBABILITY = 33%, AT BEST.
Prediction Markets
Meet professor Justin Wolfers.
Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
Modern Life
“The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
Arbitrage between play-money and real-money markets
Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.
Google Knol is not bad, as a web publishing platform —but I still prefer WordPress and MediaWiki.
Each week, Predictify will ask a VIP to submit a question for the crowd to answer.
Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.
Excerpts of the BetFair’s answers to their traders’ questions
Why Robin Hanson is right to freak out about the upcoming CFTC ruling on “event markets” (prediction markets)
The John Edwards Non-Affair
BetFair traders are getting ready for the BOOM.
I was not drinking cranky juice when I told you that FaceBook can be leveraged to compete with InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub and the Hollywood Stock Exchange.
A documentary film is going to be made about the book “Freakonomics”. The problem is that the film won’t be made by one able and focused director —but rather by a bunch of folks, whose implication in the whole project will be ultra minimal. The expected result of that idiocy is that their documentary will be an uninteresting mosaic of short and superficial takes, and will surely tank at the box office, like all the Paris Hilton movies did. The Hollywood Stock Exchange traders are no idiots: they are sensing that that Freakonomics project is a stinking lemon, and they are selling the event derivative like it is bubonic plague.
“Possum”, one of the biggest and most well known political bloggers in Justin Wolfers’ country (i.e., Australia), has an amazing InTrade webpage. Check it out.
The only legal form of Internet wagering in the U.S. is pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing.
Bob is a well greased, full-throttle petition machine.
Michael Weiss of Gawker is misinformed about the wisdom of crowds.
Max Keiser’s politics is controversial. But, as a journalist, he is a genius. Market-based probabilistic predictions (whether it’s play money or real money) are now part of his daily punditry toolbox.
GLOBAL WARMING… SOLVED.
Steve Levitt and Koleman Strumpf in the news
Robin Hanson fanboy (who blogged many times about prediction markets on OvercomingWhatever) now tells his astonished readers what I have long suspected: He has never been truly interested in prediction markets.
Monitoring the wisdom of crowds
Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets
A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma — Summer 2008 Edition
I don’t fully agree with Max Keiser’s politics, but I do love his video prediction market journalism. Max, you’re great, here.
Why I am dropping InTrade from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets
Domestic Box Office Receipts (2008-07-18~20) - Batman: The Dark Knight to gross over $130.0M in opening weekend.
Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) discussing the Weekend Box Office and Summer Releases and predictions on Fox Business.
The BetFair’s P.R. department is run by somebody who is allergic to blogging.
Posting On Midas Oracle versus Presenting At The Third WorkShop
The prediction markets have started off quite beautifully, and the CFTC bureaucrats won’t be able to stop them.
Blogging is a kind of magic. Well, at least, it works on InTrade.
Wikipedia edits will have to be approved, first, before being published for good.
A good résumé, in the field of prediction markets, should mention and link to “Midas Oracle”, of course. You, too, could be part of the gang. Join us today.
The Dark Knight
Meet one of the few “notable exceptions” whom InTrade CEO John Delaney was talking about in his comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets).
Yet another attempt at legalizing Internet betting and gambling in the United States of America
For Once
In black, the comment made by the ubber president of the Pennock fan club. But I want Jason Ruspini to dissent in the comment area with another argument.
Andrew Black (front) & Edward Wray (back)
The accuracy of prediction markets makes them hard to ignore.
InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) was so good that even a BetFair shareholder loved it.
The Germans In Germany & The Prediction Exchanges In Great Britain
Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.
Pssttt… Did I tell you that I like InTrade CEO John Delaney’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)? I can’t remember whether I did tell you that already. (I do suffer memory lapses, sometimes. I know it’s a common affliction, because I see that Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, just before they signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition, completely forgot that they were on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America. A lapse in memory, probably.)
Who are the “notable exceptions” whom InTrade CEO John Delaney talked about in his comment to the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets). HINT, HINT: That’s not Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers.
How InTrade CEO John Delaney tried to undo the great damage done to the prediction market industry by Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers)
How InTrade CEO John Delaney rightfully spanked the posteriors of Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers)
How InTrade CEO John Delaney rightfully slammed Bob’s little minions (among them, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers) as hypocrite and short-sighted —and how he told the CFTC to put Bob’s petition (signed by Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers, among others) in the trash can (where it belongs).
Steve Roman, petit plaisantin, a toujours le mot pour rire.
What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)
Storms vs. Hurricanes
I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?
Forrester recommend to add enterprise prediction markets in the company toolbox.
Where will the political prediction markets be indexed in BetFair’s new menu…???… I can’t see them on that demo…
ALL OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS… SOLVED.
“InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.”
Preview of WordPress 2.6
How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French —and how Ed Murray became BetFair’s best friend (NOT A HOAX).
Is the BetFair’s brand-new bet-matching logic (which matches bets across related selections) the first time a prediction exchange manages to increase liquidity WITHOUT augmenting the number of traders or relying on an automated market maker?
In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS.
InTrade Spotting — Monday Morning Edition
Forecasting Principles should index BusinessWeek.
Caveat Bettor…
Yet another prediction market newbie who should be meeting with Robin Hanson one on one to get a little injection about conditional prediction markets and how they could be useful for BOTH private decision makers AND public policy makers.
A Mystery Wrapped In A Riddle Inside An Enigma — CFTC Edition
We are now awaiting the CFTC’s decision on “event markets” (prediction markets)…
Why Midas Oracle will have to drop InTrade
Computer beats human experts at poker…
Alex Costakis of Hollywood Stock Exchange on Fox Business
Watch Jeopardy contestants answer questions from the Hollywood Stock Exchange category.
The British case for regulating political betting
James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, sums up his book.
James Surowiecki, author of The Wisdom of Crowds, talks to the Midas Oracle readers.
FOREIGN OIL DEPENDANCY: Will the next US president adopt T. Boone Pickens’ 10-year energy plan?
“In its upcoming proceedings, therefore, the CFTC should exempt prediction markets from regulations that would prevent them from flourishing, like requiring that such shares be traded on designated commodity exchanges.”
US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College
HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles teaches you startup lessons.
COALITION OF REGULATED EXCHANGES SUBMIT A JOINT COMMENT TO THE CFTC ON “EVENT MARKETS” —ONE DAY AFTER THE DEADLINE.
INTRADE TRADERS, BEWARE. — Primary indicators from Iran might not be reliable: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doctors pictures using PhotoShop.
He is not the “Master Of All Universes”, he is low key, he blogs only once a month, his DPMM lost it to MSR (one to many thousands, and soon, one to many hundreds of thousands), his set of search engine prediction markets at InTrade is a nuclear disaster of Biblical proportions, his Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game is a hole into the ground that reaches the center of the Earth, but… so many people truly LOVE him.
Maverick
Live Stream Audio of the Third WorkShop on Prediction Markets?
Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)
Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)
Why did Chris Masse opted for the “excluded commodities” and the DCMs way, since we know that stringent CFTC regulations can kill our lite, real-money prediction markets?
The fact that the Prediction Market Industry Association didn’t submit a comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)…
I come in agreement with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s comment to the CFTC.
The last comments are up on the CFTC website, finally.
InTrade CEO John Delaney sends a good comment to the CFTC.
Robin Hanson’s purity test is based on an absurd principle.
NewsFutures is the most usable prediction exchange I know of.
HubDub question
Implied Prices for Presidential Decision-Aid Markets
Free Speech in Event Market Claims
What I said to BusinessWeek
The CFTC Deadline . . . Wavers
We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).
What I think of Robin Hanson’s comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.
What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)
Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)?
Here’s how to create a huge buzz in the Blogosphere about the prediction markets and multiply the web links pointing to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, TradeFair, Betdaq, Iowa Electonic Markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange, NewsFutures, Reality Markets, YooPick or HubDub websites.
I answered the political test designed by the “Advocates For Self-Government” people. Here’s what I got.
What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”
A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
My response to the CFTC on event contracts
Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator
Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
The upcoming CFTC ruling may come as thunder and lightning —or may not. That is the question. Will they exempt or will they regulate?
PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC
The freshest comments sent to the CFTC
Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.
“To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”
How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only)
HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook
Clueless and retarded InTrade traders (”the sheep”) can’t take “no” for an answer. — Short sellers (”the wolves”) will BBQ them.
WHEN CHRIS MASSE SENDS YOU AN E-MAIL AT WORK, BE ON YOUR GUARD.
Exposing Chris Masse’s manhood —once again.
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 4 days. We have 4 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
The Midas Oracle readers use Mozilla FireFox 3.
50%
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is not a friend of the prediction markets. Nor is the ISDA.
We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we’re afraid that your “Israel-bombs-Iran-in-2008″ event derivatives are now completely… WORTHLESS —unless you’re a short seller.
Will those 2 exchanges be affected by the upcoming CFTC ruling?
COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What should be expected, next.
My question to Jason Ruspini
The freshest comments to the CFTC
The NewsFutures sheriff takes his job too seriously.
People obsess too much with Robin Hanson, if you want my opinion.
WORDPRESS: In favor of self pings
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 5 days. We have 5 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
Robin Hanson, please, jot down “February 4, 2009″ in your Google Calendar.
Robin Hanson’s buddy in the Silicon Valley strikes it rich.
Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago
“The economist Robin Hanson predicts that some of our computronium-based progeny may colonize the cosmos in a peaceful, cooperative manner, like nice liberal Democrats.”
The brand-new InTrade widget is a nuclear disaster —Chernobyl type.
Commenting on Midas Oracle
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 6 days. We have 6 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
Reality-Mined Prediction Markets
Nigel, your “very nice poll widget” can’t be seen within my feed reader (Google Reader). Put it in the trash can, will you.
“Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: a governmental regulatory body which is worthless and ineffectual.”
Justin Wolfers = Open Researcher
How come John Salvatier’s comment to the CFTC has not appeared on their website already?
“Don’t ask the experts. Ask the prediction markets. They know better.”
The World Is Flat.
James Surowiecki was in Texas (Michael Giberson’s new land), yesterday, spinning educators (interested in technology) about prediction markets and collective intelligence.
The news article that John Delaney will read with great attention this Monday morning
Exchange for trading digital bits
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 7 days. We have 7 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
How to optimize your prediction market blog (e.g., Midas Oracle, Caveat Bettor) or prediction exchange website (e.g., InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, HubDub) for Google Web Search —and all the other search engines out there.
One word is missing (”Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.
A letter to the CFTC about for-profit prediction market exchanges
Do you still have trouble commenting on Midas Oracle?
The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 8 days. We have 8 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address
“Chris, I wanted to make a comment on Midas Oracle, but the anti-spam mechanism ate my comment.”
Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
Will InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair be using this clock, one day?
“I no longer recommend BetFair.”
Will the CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money Prediction Markets?
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
Averaging One’s Guesses
Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
The Numbers Guy
Bob Barr markets
The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets
VP conditional probabilities
The CFTC Readings Of The Day —Thursday Morning Edition
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 11 days. We have 11 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).
Fairness Doctrine prediction markets
2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too.
Web Forums on Prediction Markets
Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
QUIZZ OF THE DAY: Which blog is the most open minded?
A draft response to the CFTC
Prediction Markets TV — Will the controversial but indispensable Max Keiser (ex-HSX) stay true to his purpose, or will he f*** it up?
My New York Times
What’s the best gift?
COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini
CME’s Economic Event Futures
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 12 days. We have 12 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech
After Iraq, the neo-cons’ next target is Iran.
Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.
The LinkedIn groups the Midas Oracle readers want me to belong to
The CFTC extends its regulatory arm to… the City of London.
Xpree Blog
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 13 days. We have 13 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
2 betting blogs to check… if you are in Great Britain…
PREDICTION MARKETS: Robin Hanson & Justin Wolfers
The Terror Finance Blog
Playing fantasy sports is not gambling. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act includes a specific exemption for fantasy sports, provided the prizes are determined in advance and the imaginary teams don’t correspond to any real teams.
Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism.
Inkling Markets’ Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name
BetFair created the world’s largest ad banner —as certified by the Guinness Book of World Records.