The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach

No Gravatar

These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):

HubDub

– InTrade .NET &#8230- [*] &#8230- would get the full point if they were to switch the label &#8220-price&#8221- for &#8220-probability&#8221- on their charts.

– NewsFutures &#8230- gets half a point. No mention of &#8220-probabilities&#8221- on their charts.

– Inkling Markets &#8230- gets a quarter of a point.

– TradeFair &#8230- gets an honorable mention, but won&#8217-t show its charts to the non-registered public. :(

[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat&#8217-s tip.

As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of &#8220-do what I say, not what I do&#8220-?&#8230- :-D

APPENDIX: Lance Fortnow is PMA compatible:

UPDATE: See the comments&#8230-

12 thoughts on “The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach

  1. Medemi said:

    Definitely the way to go. It takes some getting used to, but it’s a lot easier to handle.

    “Probability” is the right term to use, but “price” makes sense from a business perspective, and I think we should let them get away with it.

    Probability : 48.600.000 hits on Google.

    Price : 2.260.000.000 hits on Google.

  2. Chris F. Masse said:

    Good remark.

  3. teaNoranges said:

    Calling market prices probabilities makes perfect sense for play money exchanges. But the real money exchange prices are indicators of probability, not probabilities themselves. You have to take into account 1) trading fees 2) expiry fees 3) then discount the prices at some riskless rate of return to get true probabilities.

    Price is the right term for real money exchanges IMO.

  4. Chris F. Masse said:

    With real-money prediction markets, you should talk first probabilities to the public, and prices to the traders.

    When I said “present” in the post above, I meant the first part of the task. In the trading area, of course, exchanges should talk about prices.

    The prediction market approach talk to the public at large, first, and then to the traders, second.

  5. Are you PMA compatible? These 2 researchers are leading the way. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] Previously: The prediction market approach […]

  6. Medemi said:

    Definitely the way to go. It takes some getting used to, but it’s a lot easier to handle.

    “Probability” is the right term to use, but “price” makes sense from a business perspective, and I think we should let them get away with it.

    Probability : 48.600.000 hits on Google.

    Price : 2.260.000.000 hits on Google.

  7. Chris F. Masse said:

    Good remark.

  8. teaNoranges said:

    Calling market prices probabilities makes perfect sense for play money exchanges. But the real money exchange prices are indicators of probability, not probabilities themselves. You have to take into account 1) trading fees 2) expiry fees 3) then discount the prices at some riskless rate of return to get true probabilities.

    Price is the right term for real money exchanges IMO.

  9. Chris F. Masse said:

    With real-money prediction markets, you should talk first probabilities to the public, and prices to the traders.

    When I said “present” in the post above, I meant the first part of the task. In the trading area, of course, exchanges should talk about prices.

    The prediction market approach talk to the public at large, first, and then to the traders, second.

  10. Are you PMA compatible? These 2 researchers are leading the way. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] Previously: The prediction market approach […]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *