75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

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Record Obama Crowd, the Size of a City

Oregon&#8217-s Democratic Primary

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Price for Oregon Democratic Primary. May 20th at intrade.com

BetFair

Kentucky&#8217-s Democratic Primary

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Price for Kentucky Democratic Primary. May 20th at intrade.com

BetFair

NewsFutures

Some delegates from FL or MI will be seated at the Democratic Convention.

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First look at individual states for the 2008 US presidential elections

2008 US Presidential Election Winner – Individual

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

2008 US Presidential Elections

Source: Dynamic, compound prediction market charts from InTrade

Next US President

Next US President

Winning Party

Winning Party

Female President?

Female President?

Democratic Candidate

Democratic Candidate

Republican Candidate

Republican Candidate

Source: BetFair Politics Zone

Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination


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Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination


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Next US President Will Be Democratic.


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Next US President Will Be Republican.


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Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

More Info:

– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

– Prediction Market Science

– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

4 thoughts on “75,000 people turned out to hear Barack Obama at Waterfront Park, Portland, Oregon, U.S.A.

  1. Robin Hanson would be better off "lobbying for prediction markets" with the people who will get in power next November -that is, the Democrats, not the right-wing people of the American Enterprise Institute. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] Robin Hanson read the political prediction markets which he co-invented? If he read them, he would see that we’re going to get a big Democratic swipe, in November 2008. The American […]

  2. Prediction markets = "the future of journalism" -said, from day one, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures. Emile, if you have balls, let's do it -all together. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] yesterday’s post about the Obama–Clinton prediction markets was the most popular Midas Oracle story of that Monday. Hummmm… No idea why… I was not […]

  3. Robin Hanson would be better off "lobbying for prediction markets" with the people who will get in power next November -that is, the Democrats, not the right-wing people of the American Enterprise Institute. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] Robin Hanson read the political prediction markets which he co-invented? If he read them, he would see that we’re going to get a big Democratic swipe, in November 2008. The American […]

  4. Prediction markets = "the future of journalism" -said, from day one, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures. Emile, if you have balls, let's do it -all together. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] yesterday’s post about the Obama–Clinton prediction markets was the most popular Midas Oracle story of that Monday. Hummmm… No idea why… I was not […]

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