Some think the US could have a balanced budget by 2008. If tax rates and economic growth rates remain unchanged, I would buy the 2008 contract in size.
If the Democrats roll back the capital gains and dividend tax cuts, then I would sell a little 2008.
Cross-posted from CaveatBettor.
Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:
- Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
- Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
- Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
- Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
- Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
- The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
- Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.