Conditional Likelihood Loss Posted on March 3, 2009 by admin – Nate Silver: 0.6032– InTrade: 0.3699InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009.Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what? Related PostsHubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.HubDubs Nigel Eccles thumbs his nose at Nate Silver.2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silvers prediction more accurate than InTrades?