WORLDS #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

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2 thoughts on “WORLDS #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU IMPLIES THAT THE PREDICTION MARKETS ARE NOT MATURE ENOUGH.

  1. http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/ said:

    I think Robin might be mis-diagnosing things. I think its just a matter of a lack of capital.

    I think a surge of enthusiastic republicans came on Intrade after the conventions, while not trading on the other exchanges. 

    Looking at how trading has spiked on the other exchanges, I think that there most likely are a lot of “Buy Obama on intrade, short on [other exchange]“. But the amount of volume on intrade is huge, it would take a lot of capital to bring prices in line.

    But eventualy, capital will build up to pick up all the free money.

  2. http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/ said:

    I think Robin might be mis-diagnosing things. I think its just a matter of a lack of capital.

    I think a surge of enthusiastic republicans came on Intrade after the conventions, while not trading on the other exchanges. 

    Looking at how trading has spiked on the other exchanges, I think that there most likely are a lot of “Buy Obama on intrade, short on [other exchange]“. But the amount of volume on intrade is huge, it would take a lot of capital to bring prices in line.

    But eventualy, capital will build up to pick up all the free money.

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