The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America -Jim Webb, maybe.

No Gravatar

Via mister Bo Cowgill

The New Republic

Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop. :-D

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton&#8217-s exit statement. (He liked it.)

UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *