Dont trade on the VP predictions markets. – Dont bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. – Dont listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. – Dont believe in vice presidential selection committees. – Select well your primary, advanced indicators. –

No Gravatar

The topic of this post is:

Betting &amp- Information

#1. Don&#8217-t trade on the VP predictions markets.

I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.

You can&#8217-t divine their final thoughts.

Politicians often lie about their intentions &#8212-they also change mind, frequently.

The decision to name one VP nominee could be made in secret &#8212-without any early warnings.

Surprise is a card that Barack Obama and John McCain could play. Don&#8217-t bet against their final will.

#2. Don&#8217-t believe in &#8220-vice presidential selection committees&#8221-.

Last time, in 2000, a man named Dick Cheney was appointed to head George W. Bush&#8217-s vice presidential selection committee.

He was supposed to scout around to find and assess good candidates.

Surprise, surprise, that fake committee ended up putting Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket &#8212-and the rest is history (Iraq war, etc.).

#3. Don&#8217-t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP.

She does not have the slightest chance.

It&#8217-s highly unlikely that Barack Obama selects her on the Democratic ticket.

Hillary Clinton as VP nominee (and as VP) would present many quasi insurmountable problems.

#4. Don&#8217-t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket.

They are clueless.

Don&#8217-t read clueless people. They are a waste of time.

#5. Select well your primary, advanced indicators.

  1. Go to the sources of information. Discard filters. Your insatiable curiosity should drive your search for information.
  2. Use technology to select the best news articles out there. Bookmark Memeorandum for US politics (and TechMeme for information technology) &#8212-they use bloggers&#8217- links to select what&#8217-s hot, a bit like Google&#8217-s PageRank does.
  3. Use the crowd to sense what&#8217-s hot or to discover marginally interesting tidbits. I have 56 friends on Google Reader who share their best items with me. I got many interesting stories that way, every day, from sources I would have never known about, otherwise. (Plus, I receive many e-mails each day from potential sources.)

#6. Choose your bets (and trades) carefully.

Just because an event derivative is cheap doesn&#8217-t mean that it&#8217-s a good bet.

Don&#8217-t pluck down money on a bet unless you&#8217-ve seriously researched the topic by yourself &#8212-and possesses some expertise or experience in that field.

FOLLOW-UP POST: 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

20 thoughts on “Dont trade on the VP predictions markets. – Dont bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. – Dont listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. – Dont believe in vice presidential selection committees. – Select well your primary, advanced indicators. –

  1. Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] So, stay away from the “Hillary Clinton As VP” prediction markets… […]

  2. Ted said:

    After watching both McCain’s and Obama’s speeches on TV Tuesday night, McCain no less than NEEDS to run Alaska Gov Sarah Palin as his VP mate.

  3. JustHinting said:

    I can’t agree with you more! Hillary has absolutley NO chance at making her way on Obama’s ticket. I found a great interview, with Dick Morris, that talks about why Hillary will not be VP. It really brings up some great points. Also, Hillary is acting as though she can force her way on the ticket. Who wants someone who has Bludgeoned there way on the ticket. Its like she’s tryin a hostile take over for VP. If she wants VP she needs to start kissin some… Anyway its a great interview if you wanna check it out.  

  4. VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] Commenter “Just Hinting” gives us this link: […]

  5. 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] My first warning: June 4. + My second warning: June 4, later that day. + My third warning: June […]

  6. Hillary Clinton won't be on the Democratic ticket. - It's not going to happen. - N-E-V-E-R. - Not a chance. - Period. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] See my previous story for more on all that. […]

  7. ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP-candidate prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton's daily dress pick. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] F. Masse August 20th, 2008 As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and […]

  8. Barack Obama + Joe Biden - THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] I have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama’s decision process. The chart above obviously shows that the Joe Biden narrative leaked out to reporters was beamed out for a purpose: testing the Obama-needs-a-VP-who-is-strong-in-foreign-policy argument, and letting the Press do the final vetting on gaffe-prone Joe Biden. […]

  9. Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] So, stay away from the “Hillary Clinton As VP” prediction markets… […]

  10. Ted said:

    After watching both McCain’s and Obama’s speeches on TV Tuesday night, McCain no less than NEEDS to run Alaska Gov Sarah Palin as his VP mate.

  11. JustHinting said:

    I can’t agree with you more! Hillary has absolutley NO chance at making her way on Obama’s ticket. I found a great interview, with Dick Morris, that talks about why Hillary will not be VP. It really brings up some great points. Also, Hillary is acting as though she can force her way on the ticket. Who wants someone who has Bludgeoned there way on the ticket. Its like she’s tryin a hostile take over for VP. If she wants VP she needs to start kissin some… Anyway its a great interview if you wanna check it out.  

  12. VIDEO: Why Hillary Clinton will never be the Vice President of the United States of America. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] Commenter “Just Hinting” gives us this link: […]

  13. 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] My first warning: June 4. + My second warning: June 4, later that day. + My third warning: June […]

  14. Hillary Clinton won't be on the Democratic ticket. - It's not going to happen. - N-E-V-E-R. - Not a chance. - Period. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] See my previous story for more on all that. […]

  15. ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP-candidate prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton's daily dress pick. | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] F. Masse August 20th, 2008 As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and […]

  16. Barack Obama + Joe Biden - THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). | Midas Oracle .ORG said:

    […] I have over-estimated the secretiveness of Barack Obama’s decision process. The chart above obviously shows that the Joe Biden narrative leaked out to reporters was beamed out for a purpose: testing the Obama-needs-a-VP-who-is-strong-in-foreign-policy argument, and letting the Press do the final vetting on gaffe-prone Joe Biden. […]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *