Rationalization of the HRC attack
Since it seems that I won’-t secure any more capital on which to exploit this within the relevant timeframe, I thought I’-d complete the circle regarding the HRC attack of several days ago. (For the first half of the analysis, please read this post.)
The attack was clearly “-irrational”- and not related to release of any public information–-if not directly contrary to that day’-s information. A buyer with the sophistication of knowing the publicity power of Tradesports stats, who had learned a key piece of inside information, would have bought Hillarys much more gradually, saving himself significant dollars. However, we already established that no piece of private information could realistically justify the movement from 54.5% to 68.5%. It seems clear that the attack was “-irrational.”- But if every event is caused by something, what would cause this attack?
My answer: someone internal to the “-Run, HRC, run”- decision process wants Hillary to run, and is searching for other factors with which to convince her that she will run. So that someone, my guess is a senior staffer with some money lying around, did this so that s/he could go to Hillary and, having gone over the latest poll numbers, say, “-Oh, by the way, the market numbers [which are so impartial, of course] on your likelihood of getting the nomination are…-”- And 68.5% sounds a lot better than 54.5%. The staffer probably knew it would go down pretty quickly, but it did happen, so it’-s not a lie, even though the meaning was totally deceptive. And as the attack occurred at about 6 AM Eastern, it would be just in time for the morning briefing! (Yeah, that might be trying to tease too much out of the inference. Who knows. Right?)
Hillary is reading the tea leaves, sees her high negatives, sees her perceived and actual huge baggage, and is feeling hesitant about the whole idea. The final go-ahead to her big donors will happen sometime in December. I am sure that someone is staking big bucks trying to convince her to run. Probably a senior staffer who has a ton to gain personally and career-wise, if Hillary goes all-out. And Hillary is a lot more skittish than 55% skittish.
Addendum, again from Hotline: FNC’-s Cameron: “-The chairman of Iowa’-s Democratic party told Fox News that Mrs. Clinton has not been adequately laying the groundwork for her campaign and that first in the nation caucus goers are being told she may not run because of growing buzz over Illinois Freshman Senator Barack Obama’-s expected candidacy.”-
The plan was for Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack to be the stalking-horse for the Iowa caucuses, and render it irrelevant. The Iowa primaries are about retail politicking, which Hillary hates. Unfortunately for Hillary, Vilsack’-s polling has been dismal, even in his home state. Which renders his run all the more irrelevant, and irrational, without ulterior motives.