Red Monitor –- Die 7×-24 Prognoseborse –- German-speaking, Austria-based, real-money prediction exchange –
Globaler Marktplatz fur Prognosen.
Actually, the ABOUT US page is in German, only. Hubertus Hofkirchner (CEO) has provided the following information —-the final wording is mine:
Like HedgeStreet, Red Monitor chose the regulated path and is subject to the Austrian Finanzmarktaufsicht supervision. Red Monitor lives off a small fee on traders’-s profits. Red Monitor’-s market design is original and patented —-and scientific and private use is free.
Hubertus Hofkirchner has written a short essay in English to describe the new market design used by Red Monitor, and how it is better than CDA —-or so he says. I leave the commentary to the specialists.
I’-m more interested in one marketing point: Wouldn’-t it make sense to have an English-speaking platform so as to attract international traders? Is Red Monitor restricted to Austrians and Germans?
If Hubertus Hofkirchner wants to leave a comment below, I’-ll be happy to pass the information. He can cross-post his text here, at Midas Oracle, if he wishes.
Also, I know some of the German beta traders. If they want to pass some tips to me, I’-m all ears. One of my source said that the Red Monitor’-s frontpage looks like a stock exchange portal. Indeed. So my next question is (as I can’-t read German, alas): Is Red Monitor in the content business, too?
Just a short note in reply to your questions following our Public-Beta launch.
“Better than CDA” — is a bit strong because there are many dimensions on which one could compare market mechanisms. There are however quite a few differences to conventional mechanisms some of which may well prove highly advantageous. I will list a few (not exhaustive):
1. The RED mechanism can capture and mathematically measure “price information”.
2. RED, as a market place, monetizes “price information” for those who have or need it.
3. The creation of predictive information –- in principle –- does not depend on liquidity.
4. RED distinguishes between two types of risk, one measured by volatility and one by yield (the Price of Uncertainty).
5. RED’s RealPrice data set provides new methods to identify price distortions of all kinds.
“English” – “Restricted to Austrians and Germans” – Redmonitor’s underlying platform is designed to support multi-language and multi-currency operations, in principle. As you can imagine there are many tasks which must be done before we can activate these capabilities. We will announce other languages and operating constituencies outside the European Community as and when available, so bear with us.
And check Jason Ruspini’-s comment…-
From what I can gather, the RED mechanism has more in common with traditional options than the prediction markets we would recognize. […]