5 thoughts on “Dennis Gartman: Dubais problems are very serious.”
Even assuming a rescue, I am selling a little more gold here down just $8-9. Wanted to sell more earlier in the week but held off because of strength in euro. If the catalyst were bad macro numbers (low rates) in the US, I would be more confident of gold decoupling from risk trade. I don’t like the recent weakness in finance and China here and don’t want to worry about it over the weekend. I will be happy to reverse gold sale if things shape up in next week though.. euro back above 1.50 would help.
“The main point is that Abu Dhabi (a very rich emirate) will never let Dubai, which is “no different from a very large Euro Disney” (Source), become insolvent.”
The great thing with P2 is the commenting. The bad thing is that it takes a lot of server resources. I will see the pros and the cons. Let’s try it for a while.
P.S.: If you want to publish a post, do it inside WordPress, and then e-mail me so I finesse your post and then publish it.
So, I did buy the gold sold on Friday back before the ISM release this morning. I consider myself lucky that I only missed $15 on 15% of gold position with this move. Some people fared much worse… a thin market one day after a major euro breakout… it was a sh*tshow. Now, we look towards the end of the week where a strong payroll number will be good for gold, and a weak number might hurt gold initially, but I don’t think you’re going to get a lot of follow-through to the downside because of the rate implications. If you want to get fancy, long gold and short something more industrial like copper might be good here.
I sold most of my gold today at levels that look pretty good by now. I did not anticipate an extraordinarily strong payrolls number/revision, but the reaction in gold only confirmed my overall logic on the trade. That is, as long as unemployment is weak, rates will be near zero and gold will be attractive, but now I don’t see a catalyst for new highs in gold for the remainder of the month.
And not to be conspiratorial, but there was all the political reason in the world to get those numbers up.
Even assuming a rescue, I am selling a little more gold here down just $8-9. Wanted to sell more earlier in the week but held off because of strength in euro. If the catalyst were bad macro numbers (low rates) in the US, I would be more confident of gold decoupling from risk trade. I don’t like the recent weakness in finance and China here and don’t want to worry about it over the weekend. I will be happy to reverse gold sale if things shape up in next week though.. euro back above 1.50 would help.
“The main point is that Abu Dhabi (a very rich emirate) will never let Dubai, which is “no different from a very large Euro Disney” (Source), become insolvent.”
A objective overview of the Dubai situation;
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=6358
The great thing with P2 is the commenting. The bad thing is that it takes a lot of server resources. I will see the pros and the cons. Let’s try it for a while.
P.S.: If you want to publish a post, do it inside WordPress, and then e-mail me so I finesse your post and then publish it.
So, I did buy the gold sold on Friday back before the ISM release this morning. I consider myself lucky that I only missed $15 on 15% of gold position with this move. Some people fared much worse… a thin market one day after a major euro breakout… it was a sh*tshow. Now, we look towards the end of the week where a strong payroll number will be good for gold, and a weak number might hurt gold initially, but I don’t think you’re going to get a lot of follow-through to the downside because of the rate implications. If you want to get fancy, long gold and short something more industrial like copper might be good here.
I sold most of my gold today at levels that look pretty good by now. I did not anticipate an extraordinarily strong payrolls number/revision, but the reaction in gold only confirmed my overall logic on the trade. That is, as long as unemployment is weak, rates will be near zero and gold will be attractive, but now I don’t see a catalyst for new highs in gold for the remainder of the month.
And not to be conspiratorial, but there was all the political reason in the world to get those numbers up.