The boom of public and private prediction markets started after the 2004 US elections. InTrade claimed to have nailed “-all 50 states”-. InTrade’-s performance in the 2008 US elections was less stellar, and in line with polls. Hence, the bust we are in.
If true, the good performance of HubDub in the Oscars 2009 forecasting race could lead to a small boom. We will see. We should first analyze the HubDub data. Nigel, care to share?