What I think of Robin Hansons comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.

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Overall, his input is very brainy.

It&#8217-s a major contribution to the general discussion about prediction markets.

Please, allow me to disagree on one thing he said.

Robin Hanson:

One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an individual trader&#8217-s stake, and the number of traders. The Iowa Electronic Markets are limited on both of these parameters. Such limits do succeed in preventing large hedging markets from masquerading as info-motivated event markets. But they do little to prevent generic gambling markets from masquerading as info-motivated event markets.

I have a fundamentally different view. What is important is not what Robin Hanson thinks of TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet &#8212-and what their motivation(s) are.

What is important is whether those prediction exchanges do generate trustworthy and accurate probabilistic predictions. Period.

They do or they do not. Period.

And guess which prediction exchange has been more than willing to host Robin Hanson&#8217-s conditional prediction markets: Hint: it&#8217-s not the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Did Robin Hanson tell that to the CFTC? :-D

UPDATE: Robin Hanson&#8217-s comment, posted below this post.

Chris, I did not take the CFTC call for comments as asking for what I would choose if I were king. I instead took it as them asking for help negotiating treacherous political waters. Part of the reality of their difficult situation is that the public, and hence Congress is quite wary that new rules might in effect legalize general gambling. Convincing the public that betting markets provide accurate predictions is not enough to convince them to legalize such markets in general. If there is any doubt, if I were king I would in fact legalize general gambling.

14 thoughts on “What I think of Robin Hansons comment to the CFTC… and what I think about his slam at TradeSports-InTrade, BetFair-TradeFair, and HedgeStreet.

  1. Robin Hanson said:

    Chris, I did not take the CFTC call for comments as asking for what I would choose if I were king.  I instead took it as them asking for help negotiating treacherous political waters.  Part of the reality of their difficult situation is that the public, and hence Congress is quite wary that new rules might in effect legalize general gambling.  Convincing the public that betting markets provide accurate predictions is not enough to convince them to legalize such markets in general.   If there is any doubt, if I were king I would in fact legalize general gambling.

  2. Chris F. Masse said:

    @Robin Hanson: “Convincing the public that betting markets provide accurate predictions is not enough to convince them to legalize such markets in general.”

    Interesting thought, which I will have to mind.

  3. Adonis said:

    Seems to me that everyone is using “wordology” to prevent the logical conclusion that ALL forms of investment are essentially GAMBLES.

    If your Government hopes to keep lawyers in fat fees by trying to differentiate between different types of gamble (some “legal” and some not) then I forsee little chance of such a wide-ranging change (allowing prediction markets) being accepted!

    Time to stop pussyfooting around and ask the fundamental questions:

    does the US Governement agree that Citizens should be allowed to gamble, legally, if they choose to ( with appropriate Regulation), or does it want to continue to prohibit anything which it deems as “gambling” (versus “investing”)?

    I thought that Americans had Self-Determination fully catered for in their Constitution. I’m not aware that it says anywhere “thou shalt not gamble“…………

    If it does, who put it in there, and why, and on whose authority?

    Prohibition against what People want to do anyway is a recipe for protest and lawbreaking (drink, anyone?).

    Adonis

  4. medemi said:

    “thought that Americans had Self-Determination fully catered for in their Constitution”

    And how did the Greatness of Britain, where freedom supposedly rules, become so addicted to suppression ?

    Simple, in order get rid of your opponent, create an enemy for him.

  5. Adonis said:

    When an Emperor buys a poodle lapdog, and trains him to yap on command, all sorts of undemocratic things happen.

    We got rid of the poodle, only to inherit a Big Brother analogue instead! Our Country appears now to be taxed to a standstill….. NOT ONE SINGLE ELECTOR actually voted our current PM into office!!! His Party did that for us, without our electoral consent. Kind ain’t they?

    Maybe if we had a Tea Party and threw the lot of them into the Thames, in front of the Houses of Parliament…….?

    Likewise, it is feasible that if a betting exchange fears public debate of issues which might affect their income from having an incumbent, less-than-perfect level of Betting Integrity, they might opt to suppress debate on all such issues by barring meaningful discussion on their own organ, planting propagandists there instead, and then pursuing those “rogue Customers” to extremes; to silence them wherever they might air their views.

    It has become an unwise habit, in the UK, to assume that events and activities will – as a matter of legitimate course – follow sensible, logical and democratic paths. In fact, it may be observed that such routes are highly UNUSUAL! I do wonder sometimes if this might be “reverse Colonialism”, thrust on us by some antipodean anarchy?????

    As a famous Hungarian immigrant to the USA (Dr Andy Grove, Intel) once wrote: “Only The Paranoid Survive“.

    Once we lie back and let such things pass with out comment, we might just as well lie back and expire.

    Complacency is a far more lethal poison than cyanide.

    Adonis

  6. Ed Murray said:

    Would any of the US MO contributors like to talk about the size of illegal gambling markets in the US (obviously not in their own experience, but in their view from what they have heard from others,…).  I found NY so strange without the bookies shops that London has every few metres.  How easy is it for people to wager domestically on US events (illegal or not)?  Thanks.

  7. medemi said:

    Adonis,

    you may find this video interesting, I’ve watched 90 minutes of it.

     DAVID ICKE 2008: BIG BROTHER – THE BIG PICTURE

    http://www.davidicke.com/index.php/

    Some interesting thoughts about the microchip in there as well.

    I would be interested in any thoughts you might have.

  8. medemi said:

    Never mind Adonis. I’ve watched it AGAIN, and now in full.

    This guy is pushing all the right buttons.

    Do yourselves a favour and watch this video. This guy, after having done 20 years of research really has all the dots connected. He touches on many aspects that we (should) care about and towards the end he even touches on the heart of our existence. Amazing. And I like his Einstein quotes ;-)

  9. medemi said:

    Oh… almost forgot. When he does get the media attention he deserves, he probably won’t last long.

  10. Adonis said:

    Hi Medemi,

    you sure have a dry sense of humour!

    Icke was ( maybe 10 – 20 years ago) a famous TV presenter here. But then he made some public claims to being a deity and was involved in all sorts of, shall we be kind and say eccentric, claims. Others of a cruel disposition would say “hairbrained”, or even “lunatic fringe”.

    He tends to now be regarded as part of the “quaintness” of what makes Britain different – necessary but not necessarily meaningful! He does, however, have a remarkable talent as you indicate for striking a sympathetic “nerve” on his target audience.

    Enjoy the week-end, all,

    Adonis

  11. medemi said:

    “Enjoy the week-end, all,”

    Hey hey hey… where are you going ?

    20 Years of AGE can do a lot to a person. 20 Years of research can do a lot to a person.

    Do I now have the choice to give in to British prejudism and label him as a conspiracy theorist ? I will stick with what I know. And quite frankly I don’t care who was behind 9-11 as that question will probably remain to be unanswered. It’s the big picture I’m interested in. The big picture tells me Britain is only part of – but at the epicenter of Big Brother. But we already knew that. What I also know is that learned helplessness is thriving in Britain, perfectly demonstrated btw, and that there is a necessity to overcome that. From a professional point of view I have to conclude we are dealing with a perfectly sane and intelligent man. Just watch the damn video Adonis…  

    Sorry about challenging your opinion after I asked for it, but that’s me. :-D

  12. medemi said:

    It’s a bit disappointing btw, unless you’re on a fishing expedition. We should be kicking illuminati ass.

  13. medemi said:

    Has anyone watched the video ? Any positive comments ?

    If David Icke is right (and he might be) you can forget all about your prediction markets, in search of the truth. Because you will never find it. We might as well retire now and give ourselves over to sex drugs & rock & roll.

    Actually that’s not such a bad idea when looking at the alternative.

    Have a nice week-end.

  14. Jason Ruspini said:

    Ed, Two onshore sites I notice are FirstDibz and YooNew, which seem to let you buy or sell your conditional ticket reservations right up to the game that will decide whether or not you get the tickets.  Surprisingly, neither site addresses the obvious “is this legal?” question in their FAQs.

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