Prediction Market Industry Association

No Gravatar



Monday, Oct 22, 2007


Industry and thought leaders join forces to help promote and grow the field of prediction markets.

London (Oct 22 2007) – The recent Prediction Market Summit held in London, UK, concluded with the creation of an international industry association tasked with promoting awareness, education and validation for the rapidly growing field.

Participants at the summit reflected the rich international and dynamic texture of the field, including veteran industry leaders such as Hollywood Stock Exchange (US), Intrade (IRL), NewsFutures (US), and Pro:kons (AU), as well as newer entrants such as Gexid (DE), Mercury (UK), Nosco (DK) and Xpree (US). Also present were many members of the international academic community from institutions in the UK, Scandinavia, Germany, Ireland, and Japan, as well as representatives of Schlumberger, Microsoft, Nokia and other companies using or considering the use of prediction markets in the operation of their business.

The Prediction Market Industry Association (&#8221-PMIA&#8221-) will focus on initiatives that can benefit all stake-holders while not hampering the healthy competition and rapid innovation that characterizes the field. Concretely, its first priorities are to:

1) Create a central, standardized registry of available prediction stocks and contracts from different prediction markets.
This open central resource will help demonstrate the wide coverage of available predictions, facilitate search, and make prediction market data more easily available to researchers, the media, and the public at large. Participation will be entirely voluntary, and the program will leave each publisher in complete control of the commercial terms for accessing its data.

2) Offer a directory of its members, a library of core readings, and other such resources
enabling newcomers to quickly learn about the field and find their way among the various worldwide offerings.

3) Provide a consensual venue for sharing industry-relevant information and announcements, and organize regular meetings of the industry to discuss common opportunities.

4) Lobby for a clear legal and regulatory environment conducive to the productive adoption of prediction markets
by individuals, firms, and governments, and ensuring free access to these markets by traders.

To lead the collective effort on these initiatives, the summit participants chose a five member board of directors: three from industry and two from academia. Participants immediately came to consensus on the two academic members. The three industry board members, however, were elected in a secret ballot where voters could nominate any industry player whether present at the meeting or not. The PMIA&#8217-s first board is comprised of:

Emile Servan-Schreiber (NewsFutures) Chairman
Jed Christiansen (Mercury Research &amp- Consulting) Treasurer
John Delaney (Intrade)
Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
Justin Wolfers (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

The board&#8217-s first task will be to establish the association&#8217-s bylaws, which will naturally include provisions for the regular rotation of the members of the board. A first draft will be published within the next two weeks and will be open to comment by all interested parties.

As it pursues the PMIA&#8217-s collective benefit agenda, the board looks forward to drawing heavily from the prediction market community&#8217-s extraordinarily rich and diverse pool of talent and experience. Comments, suggestions, and offers to help are most welcome. (We thank our friends at Nosco for graciously designing the association&#8217-s logo.)

As of today, the Prediction-Markets Google Group is the official discussion venue of the association. (Thanks to John Maloney for turning over the keys of this valuable resource.) This discussion group will act as the de facto virtual home of the association while this website is in construction.

In recognition of the inspiration provided by the river Thames, on the banks of which it was born, and the fact that London is both the financial capital of the world and a historical bridge between the United States and Europe, where most of the activity in the field currently takes place, the PMIA board has chosen this city as its physical home.


For additional information contact:

Emile Servan-Schreiber T: +1 (443) 321-2700 E: [email protected]
Jed Christiansen T: +44 796 358 3663 E: [email protected]
John Delaney T: +353 1 6200 300 E: [email protected]
Robin Hanson E: [email protected]
Justin Wolfers E: [email protected]


UPDATE: Their new website is born, EJSS tells us: Prediction Market Industry Association

External Link: The full list of all the industry associations at CFM.

One thought on “Prediction Market Industry Association

  1. Emile Servan-Schreiber said:

    The PMIA is something that the PM community had started discussing almost two years ago already at the PM Summit in NYC, and as we got together again in London earlier this month for the latest PM Summit, it seemed that the time had finally come to get together, get organized, and get moving. So here it is: We look forward to productive interactions and outputs that will benefit the entire field. It’s all about about being smarter together.

    More details about bylaws, membership, dues, and projects implementation to be agreed to and published in the next few weeks. Join us to discuss these topics on the Prediction Markets Google Group (, which, as of this morning becomes the official discussion venue of the PMIA.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *