And he could be right.
The only way to evaluate accuracy of predictions is with a sufficient group or series of predictions.
I don’-t disagree with that. My previous blog post on the Karl Rove prediction market simply stated that:
- The NewsFutures prediction on Karl Rove happened to be wrong.
- The resignation prediction markets are usually wrong.
- There are different kinds of prediction markets. The resignation prediction markets are of the kind where there are no reliable advanced indicators.
Jed Christiansen and Emile Servan-Schreiber want to deny us the right to say that an individual prediction was inaccurate. I respectfully disagree with that. Other than that, I agree with their general point about using long series and understanding the true nature of probabilities. But, in day-to-day life, we all assess the accuracy of individual predictions. While it’-s not the most important angle, that’-s not something to censor, in my view.
On a related note, Midas Oracle should publish more excerpts of papers that assess long series of prediction markets. We will work on it in the future.
Karl Rove will resign from the White House.
(You will spot that the prediction market was predicting, lately, that the probability for a Karl Rove resignation was only about 20%.)
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
- Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
- How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
- Modern Life
- “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
- The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
- Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.