Makes him look like he is guilty of something, then.
Wall Street Journal + Portrait-Interview – The WSJ coverage of his resignation seems biased to me.
New York Times + NYT Editorial
I haven’-t seen any Karl Rove prediction market at InTrade and NewsFutures. Am I correct?
UPDATE: NewsFutures was floating a Karl Rove event derivative…- which turned out not to be predictive. Resignation prediction markets are rarely predictive, in my experience.
Karl Rove will resign from the White House.
UPDATE #2: Emile Servan-Schreiber…-
Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive”? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and binary markets. That’s a debate you and I have had ever since the first days of chrisfmasse.com a propos the 2004 US presidential election.
To your credit, I don’t think anyone has yet proposed a good way of assessing the “predictiveness” (predictivity?) of a single binary market after the fact. It is a very difficult question. Does anyone here have an answer?
#1. What I see on the NewsFutures chart above is that the probability of Karl Rove resigning went to about 20% previous to the official announcement in the WSJ, indicating that it was more likely than not that he’-d stay at the White House. So, in terms of absolute accuracy, that particular prediction market failed.
#2. Emile-Servan-Schreiber is right that, scientifically, we should assess a series of identical prediction markets, not just one, if we want to determine whether this market-based technology has merit. (And we should assess them comparatively to competitive institutions’- predictions.) Overall, the NewsFutures prediction exchange is indeed predictive.
NEXT: Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you? + Jed Christiansen strongly believes that Chris Masse has a bad understanding of probabilities.