Makes him look like he is guilty of something, then.

Wall Street Journal + Portrait-Interview – The WSJ coverage of his resignation seems biased to me.

New York Times + NYT Editorial

I haven&#8217-t seen any Karl Rove prediction market at InTrade and NewsFutures. Am I correct?

UPDATE: NewsFutures was floating a Karl Rove event derivative&#8230- which turned out not to be predictive. Resignation prediction markets are rarely predictive, in my experience.

Karl Rove will resign from the White House.

UPDATE #2: Emile Servan-Schreiber&#8230-

Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive”? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and binary markets. That’s a debate you and I have had ever since the first days of chrisfmasse.com a propos the 2004 US presidential election.

To your credit, I don’t think anyone has yet proposed a good way of assessing the “predictiveness” (predictivity?) of a single binary market after the fact. It is a very difficult question. Does anyone here have an answer?

#1. What I see on the NewsFutures chart above is that the probability of Karl Rove resigning went to about 20% previous to the official announcement in the WSJ, indicating that it was more likely than not that he&#8217-d stay at the White House. So, in terms of absolute accuracy, that particular prediction market failed.

#2. Emile-Servan-Schreiber is right that, scientifically, we should assess a series of identical prediction markets, not just one, if we want to determine whether this market-based technology has merit. (And we should assess them comparatively to competitive institutions&#8217- predictions.) Overall, the NewsFutures prediction exchange is indeed predictive.

NEXT: Does this prediction market chart look predictive to you? + Jed Christiansen strongly believes that Chris Masse has a bad understanding of probabilities.