Mike Robb is quick to roar victory for the quasi-accurate BetFair predictions on the Oscars 2009.
PS: I credit the accuracy to both the information aggregation mechanism (BetFair’s prediction exchange) and the BetFair traders.
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Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough. If they are not and you get them all correctly, then the markets have biases and are NOT accurate.
http://behind-the-enemy-lines.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-failing-to-fail-is-failure.html