Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets

Mike Linksvayer July 20th, 2008

I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only used as a jumping off point for an oft-repeated and boring argument that voters ought consider candidates outside the dominant parties.

Sadly, I think the think tank question I posed at the end of 2006 is still no: When has a pro-market think tank ever subjected its policy recommendations to market evaluation?

So, I’ll extend the donation offer made in that post through the end of 2009.

Tags: event derivative markets, policy recommendations, prediction markets, Think Tanks