Good news this week for French-speaking Midas Oracle readers: The French version of Surowiecki’s book has at last been released. Here’s wishing it the success it deserves! Early reviews are very positive: One reviewer writes poetically about “crowds so wise that they become revolutionary.” Cute, and telling: As the country celebrates the student uprisings of April-May 1968, when Mao’s little red book was a must read, Surowiecki’s manifesto is indeed perfectly timed to launch a new cultural revolution.
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3 Comments to “La Sagesse Des Foules”
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I belatedly discovered Scott Page’s wonderful book a couple weeks ago while preparing for a presentation I delivered in Washington. It apparently came out in early 2007, and even though it discusses prediction markets only very briefly, it is so relevant to what we do that I was amazed not to have heard about it before.
The core of the book is Page’s Diversity Theorem, a deceptively simple equation that lays the mathematical foundation for the Wisdom of Crowds. Applied to predictions, it says: Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
(click on the link for one of Page’s PPT that explains it all)
The beauty of this theorem is in its semantic implications: In particular means that group-level performance results as much from diversity as from individual ability. That explains why an expert can be outperformed by a diverse group of lesser experts. For a lot of people, the fact that diversity can make up for individual ability is highly counter intuitive, so it’s really nice to have Page’s theorem to back it up.
The book is also wonderfully written. I highly recommend it.
on 
Excellent. I like the cover.
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I have been following James Surowiecki and found out he is a very careful researcher.
http://www.randomhouse.com/fea.....amp;A.html
http://www.chrisfmasse.com/3/3/books/
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Emile,
1. Curious about Scott Page’s book, “The Difference”, which you cite at Amazon.
The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies (Hardcover)
http://www.amazon.com/Differen.....691128383/
2. At Amazon, you say the Wisdom Of Crowds was out in 2003. It’s 2004, I believe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....omment-777
I belatedly discovered Scott Page’s wonderful book a couple weeks ago while preparing for a presentation I delivered in Washington. It apparently came out in early 2007, and even though it discusses prediction markets only very briefly, it is so relevant to what we do that I was amazed not to have heard about it before.
The core of the book is Page’s Diversity Theorem, a deceptively simple equation that lays the mathematical foundation for the Wisdom of Crowds. Applied to predictions, it says:
Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
(click on the link for one of Page’s PPT that explains it all)
The beauty of this theorem is in its semantic implications: In particular means that group-level performance results as much from diversity as from individual ability. That explains why an expert can be outperformed by a diverse group of lesser experts. For a lot of people, the fact that diversity can make up for individual ability is highly counter intuitive, so it’s really nice to have Page’s theorem to back it up.
The book is also wonderfully written. I highly recommend it.