A highly accurate market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.
[Here’-s Robin Hanson’-s website. For your information (if you are a newbie), Robin Hanson is the most advanced researcher in the field of prediction markets. He co-invented the modern-day prediction markets, the concept of decision markets, and a new marked design, the Market Scoring Rule.]
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
- When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
- The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
- The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
- Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
- If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
- You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.