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Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!

Caveat Bettor March 14th, 2008

The announcement is here.

I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later.

The Contract Rules need more precise specification. While Intrade did use my suggestion of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies data to value the contract, I think Intrade must specifically state that the “J-D” January-December annual mean temperature series is being used, and on either the Global Mean Monthly data set, or else the Global-Land Ocean Temperature Index data set.

I personally prefer the latter, as ocean temperatures play a huge role in ice melts as well as other weather phenomena (e.g. hurricane frequency and intensity, even this political advocacy group pretending to be scientific says so). In any case, the two series are generally correlated well, so I have no strong preference which one Intrade specifies.

I used the latter of course, in working with Adam Siegel and the folks at Inkling Markets to create the very first Global Warming prediction market.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

• Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

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Tags: climate change, global warming, global warming futures, global warming prediction markets

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• Comments(4)

4 Responses to “Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!”

1. # Chris F. Masseon 15 Mar 2008 at 3:24 am

   Best wishes.
   -
   (Yes, you’re a true pioneer.)
   -
   There are (small) volumes for the earthquakes prediction markets, so I guess these global warming prediction markets will start off too…

2. # What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets? | Midas Oracle .ORGon 17 Mar 2008 at 6:15 pm

   [...] ask him about those. Which I did. Hmmm…. that is interesting, but an annual prediction is closer to weather [...]

3. # Chris F. Masseon 20 Mar 2008 at 3:21 am

   What odds a hot 2008? - by James Annan (climate scientist)
   http://julesandjames.blogspot......-2008.html
   -
   A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…
   http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....n-intrade/

4. # A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets… [Note to InTrade’s John Delaney: Couldn’t you make use of James Annan BEFORE launching the contracts, man???] | Midas Oracle .ORGon 20 Mar 2008 at 3:38 am

   [...] Chris Masse at Midas Oracle, I see that Intrade has a betting market on 2008 global mean temperature being in the top 5 hottest [...]

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