Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday

Posted on February 6, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on election eve, while Zogby indicated a tie in NJ and Romney in California.

Standings        
Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender Avg Eve Prob
           
5 2 9 59.4% Intrade 69.6%
2 5 9 40.6% Zogby 39.2%

Contest-by-contest breakdown at Caveat Bettor.

I was disappointed that Zogby only presented polling on 7 of the 20 contests on Super Tuesday.

About Caveat Bettor

Prediction Market Trader (and a Proprietary Trader and Risk Manager, working for a few investment banks for more than 20 years) - North America
This entry was posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday

  2. Caveat Bettor says:
    February 6, 2008 at 4:52 PM

    ok, i uploaded my blogger photo many weeks ago, but logged in and SELECTED it, so hopefully it starts working from here on out.

  3. Chris. F. Masse says:
    February 6, 2008 at 5:31 PM

    Great, your gravatar comes with your comment. I think it should appear on your old posts, too

Leave a Reply