Justin Wolfers investigated the Rudy Giuliani free-fall thru the prism of the InTrade prediction markets in the Wall Street Journal (PDF file).
All told, prediction market data tend to confirm that Mr. Giuliani’s recent decline is due to a poor campaign, rather than a poor strategy.
I have just read the 3-page New York Times story on Rudy Giuliani’s “dizzying free-fall” (who has not yet dropped out and endorsed John McCain, as I write this). And, as I understand the two NYT writers, they attribute his failure to both a strategic mistake and a poor campaign.
- “many advisers and political observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign.” … “a fateful decision” … “skipping the first four or five caucuses and primaries” …
- “he in fact competed hard in New Hampshire, to remarkably poor effect.“
As of today, I am not yet convinced that Justin Wolfers saw something in the prediction markets that the political analysts didn’t see in the polls and in the votes. Thus, I will find other Giuliani reports. I’ll see. What is needed is an independent judgment on this.
