Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
by Tomas Munita
[...] In his haunting chapter about Easter Island, he weighed the data — radiocarbon dating, charcoal and pollen analysis and botanical and archaeological surveys — and concluded that the inhabitants had mined the forests to extinction, setting off a cataclysm. What, Dr. Diamond wondered in an often cited passage, was going through the mind of the Easter Islander who cut the last tree? [...]
[Case Studies of Civilization Decline:]
Martin Frindt on “Trading is a game —and we do the forecast!”
Niall O'Connor on Smarkets want you to believe that they are going after a much bigger betting market than BetFair’s one.
Jason Ruspini on PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.
Paul Hewitt on Libertarian journalist John Stossel explained InTrade’s prediction markets, and forgot BetFair.
Max Keiser on PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.
Daniel Horowitz on Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. –> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.Daniel Horowitz on Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?Paul Hewitt on Oscars 2010 Post-Mortem — InTrade Prediction MarketsPaul Hewitt on Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
Chris F. Masse on What’s wrong with soccer betting