Robin Hanson about his concept of decision markets:
[...] A novel approach to policy deserves more attention, including sympathetic discussions, when there is a positive expected payoff from further explorations of it. Such explorations can include math models, lab experiments, and field experiments. A positive payoff comes if such explorations can refine the approach into useful fielded implementations, while a negative payoff comes from wasted effort and harmful implementations. If the cost of experimenting is low and the final positive payoff could be very high, a novel policy approach can be worth exploring even with a very low probability of success.
As I wrote many times here, Robin Hanson’s concept will have applications if you view it as ‘decision-aid markets‘ (where conditional prediction markets are used to assess scenarios) —not ‘decision markets’ (where the machine would decide for us).
All this conditional ( 
) that Robin Hanson can interest people into trading on his complex prediction markets… That’s the biggest challenge.
