Robin Hanson about his concept of decision markets:
[…-] A novel approach to policy deserves more attention, including sympathetic discussions, when there is a positive expected payoff from further explorations of it. Such explorations can include math models, lab experiments, and field experiments. A positive payoff comes if such explorations can refine the approach into useful fielded implementations, while a negative payoff comes from wasted effort and harmful implementations. If the cost of experimenting is low and the final positive payoff could be very high, a novel policy approach can be worth exploring even with a very low probability of success.
As I wrote many times here, Robin Hanson’-s concept will have applications if you view it as ‘-decision-aid markets‘- (where conditional prediction markets are used to assess scenarios) —-not ‘-decision markets’- (where the machine would decide for us).
All this conditional ( ) that Robin Hanson can interest people into trading on his complex prediction markets…- That’-s the biggest challenge.
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Terrorism Futures
- InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
- The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
- A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
- BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
- Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
- BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples