Prediction market expert Robin Hanson is so right, once again.

No GravatarRobin Hanson about his concept of decision markets:

[&#8230-] A novel approach to policy deserves more attention, including sympathetic discussions, when there is a positive expected payoff from further explorations of it. Such explorations can include math models, lab experiments, and field experiments. A positive payoff comes if such explorations can refine the approach into useful fielded implementations, while a negative payoff comes from wasted effort and harmful implementations. If the cost of experimenting is low and the final positive payoff could be very high, a novel policy approach can be worth exploring even with a very low probability of success.

As I wrote many times here, Robin Hanson&#8217-s concept will have applications if you view it as &#8216-decision-aid markets&#8216- (where conditional prediction markets are used to assess scenarios) &#8212-not &#8216-decision markets&#8217- (where the machine would decide for us).

All this conditional ( :) ) that Robin Hanson can interest people into trading on his complex prediction markets&#8230- That&#8217-s the biggest challenge.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Terrorism Futures
  • InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should take a close look at Cantor Fitzgerald’s strategy to gain a share of the $100 billion U.S. gambling industry.
  • The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
  • BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
  • Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples

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