Call it Occam’-s razor, minimization of information entropy, or just KISS principle. Call it ‘-less is more‘-, usability or just common sense.
The question is, are the currently available prediction markets web services compliant with the era of attention economics? Are we able to attract a critical mass of users, thereby surpassing the tipping point needed to turn the mechanism of markets to a typical decision support and forecasting tool?
If a picture is worth a thousand words and assuming that a website’-s source code is an unbiased descriptor of its complexity, I attempted to take a look at the homepages of some popular prediction markets web services, using this ‘-websites as graphs‘- tool. In the results that follow, each cycle represents an html tag.
- thewsx.com (by consensus point)
- buzz game of yahoo, a source of inspiration to me
- my beloved inkling markets
- our approach at askmarkets.com (yet in alpha version)
P.S.: I didn’-t include betfair because the graph occurred wasn’-t descriptive of the true complexity of their homepage.
Cross-posted by gtziralis.com.