Emile Servan-Schreiber and Chris Hibbert (two veterans of the field of prediction markets) have strong doubts that Intel is using a trading mechanism. (Nothing wrong with using a non-trading mechanism, we just want to know for sure. )
I will re-read the Intel paper later on, but here is a quick stats: the phrase “-prediction markets”- is used 15 times in the paper, including 7 times in the section titled, you guessed it, “-MARKET MECHANISMS AS FORECASTING TOOLS“-.
And here’-s a crucial sentence I found out in the abstract:
The process enables product and market experts to dynamically negotiate product forecasts in an environment offering anonymity and performance-based incentives.
Does negotiation mean trading here? My first reading was “-yes”-, but I wonder what it means in light of the comment made by market design expert Chris Hibbert.
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