MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.

Chris F. Masse April 22nd, 2007

#1. Results of the first round: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy (31.2%), Socialist Segolene Royal (25.9%) —updated

Results First Round French Presidential Election

Then come Centrist Francois Bayrou (18.6%), Right-Wing Extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen (10.4%) and then the “small” candidates.

#2. The second round will be in two weeks: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy vs. Socialist Segolene Royal

All the polls have shown that the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy will beat her easily.

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PREDICTION MARKETS: The market-generated probability of the Socialist candidate has increased. Easy to understand why. There was an uncertainty about the Socialist candidate: “Will she make it to the second round?”. Now this uncertainty is over. Blogger Mike Smithson makes it like it is big news, but that’s bullshit.

French Republican Nicolas Sarkozy: 77% at BetFair.

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The Economist (Apr 12th 2007):

No French presidential election in 50 years has looked as unpredictable as this year’s, the first round of which takes place on April 22nd. [...]

Complete bullshit. Give us the market-generated probabilities, instead of the “sentiment” of the journalos.

Previous: WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT. + NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

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TAKEAWAY: French President Nicolas Sarkozy will reform the French economy —France is a socialist country, right now.

UPDATE: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has published an update about the 2007 French presidential election on the French group blog “AgoraVox”.

Tags: French political elections

3 Responses to “MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.”

# Chris. F. Masse on 23 Apr 2007 at 2:34 am

Sarkozy ahead in the second round polls
April 23rd, 2007
by Mike Smithson
The above table, adapted from Wikipedia, shows the results of four telephone surveys that were taken last night after the first round results were known.
http://politicalbetting.com/in.....und-polls/

Élection présidentielle française de 2007
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%.....se_de_2007

French presidential election, 2007 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F.....tion,_2007

CONSEIL CONSTITUTIONNEL
Élection présidentielle 2007
http://www.conseil-constitutio.....lles/2007/

sarkozy royal prediction markets
at Google Search (Midas Oracle comes up as #1. )
# Chris. F. Masse on 25 Apr 2007 at 4:12 am

For the readers of Midas Oracle who can read French, Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has an update on the 2007 French presidential election:
http://www.agoravox.fr/article.....icle=23071

Christopher Dickey of NewsWeek has a screw loose.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....crew-lose/

Matthew Parris of The Times (of London) has a screw loose.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....crew-lose/

Katrin Bennhold of the International Herald Tribune has a screw loose.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....-campaign/

BetFair vs. TradeSports-InTrade
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....s-intrade/

The Defining Moment Of The French Presidential Elections
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....elections/
# NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT. | Midas Oracle .ORGon 14 Mar 2008 at 3:04 am

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