Last time, when I said that there was a problem with the TradeSports chart, nobody believed me and Caveat Bettor treated me like a decerebrated idiot. See the problem??? The TradeSports chart spans on one day, only.
Let’-s try again the TradeSports code lines (pasted here in order to generate a dynamic chart –-i.e., a chart that will update itself in the future):
There is OBVIOUSLY a technical problem.
James Hamilton has managed to better the TradeSports-InTrade US recession contract:
Given the concerns expressed by Stephen Kirchner about the original details of the Tradesports contract, I suggested to Tradesports a tighter definition of what it means for the U.S. to go into a recession, which they’-ve now adopted. The current contract declares that the U.S. will be said to have experienced a recession in 2007 if the Commerce Department numbers as reported on February 15, 2008 show 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between 2006:Q4 and 2007:Q4.
Here’-s what Stephen Kirchner had written:
As is often the case with prediction markets, the contract specification raises more questions than it answers. There is no reference to whether the contract expires with the advance, preliminary or final GDP releases. The potential expiry with the Q3 release still leaves open the possibility of a recession in 2007 as a result of revisions to historical data. You could be right about a recession in 2007 and still lose money with this contract specification. And why do we need the media to confirm data released by the BEA? Perhaps Intrade are trying to avoid the problems that arose with their North Korean missile launch contract.
TradeSports-InTrade John Delaney should take advice from economists BEFORE setting up any economics-related prediction markets. He’-s probably not humble enough to do that. I have always said that creating prediction markets requires a dual competency, which prediction exchange managers are unlikely to possess —-they are managers, not thinkers, I will tell you. Thus, the need for experts advising prediction exchanges —-that’-s how the “-humility”- factor comes in.
Addendum: Professor James Hamilton of Econ Browser tells me that he has slightly modified the TradeSports code line to read now:
Finally!!!!!! It works.
Addendum: Professor James Hamilton says, in a comment:
CEO John Delaney has been extremely gracious in all his dealings with me, and responded very quickly to my suggestions on the recession contract. He’s also invited me to consult with them prior to launching future economic contracts. So I think he’s on board for your message.
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