… would be an interesting idea —Eric Zitzevitz would probably agree.
Addendum (January 2, 2006): Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game has one Sirius & XM prediction market, says David Pennock in the comment area.
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There is one:
http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/bk/market/market.html?_mid=60176
though maybe not exactly what you had in mind?