Iran - Is Something Really Up?

Jonathan Gewirtz December 24th, 2006

Both Spook86 and Michael Ledeen suggested a few days ago that the USA might be adopting a stronger position towards Iran. Are we?

Look at Tradesports’ price history for its AIRSTRIKE.IRAN.DEC07 contract:

(Click the thumbnail to display a large version of this chart.)

So what does this combination of an increase in stern American and British rhetoric, and stagnant odds in the geopolitical wagering market, mean? I think it’s clear. The rhetoric is most likely not intended as a prelude to action by us. It is intended as a substitute for action. This is business as usual and not at all encouraging.

(See also this post.)

Cross-posted at Chicago Boyz, an Intrade affiliate.