Prediction Markets, Decision Markets, and More
Chris F. Masse December 15th, 2006
Prediction Markets, Decision Markets, and More - (PPT) - by Robin Hanson - 2006-12-13
- All speculation is “gambling”!
- In direct compare, beats alternatives - (Vs. Public Opinion - Vs. Public Experts - Vs. Private Experts)
- Advantages - (Numerically precise - Consistent across many issues - Frequently updated - Hard to manipulate - Need not say who how expert when - At least as accurate as alternatives)
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What’s above is about “prediction markets”. Now, below, here are possible instances of “decision markets” (a more complex form of prediction markets, structured to be a decision tool, not jut a forecasting tool):
Decision Market Applications
E[ Revenue | Switch ad agency? ]
E[ Revenue | Raise price 10%? ]
E[ Project done date | Drop feature? ]
E[ Project done date | Add personnel? ]
E[ Stock price | Fire CEO? ]
E[ Stock price | Acquire firm X? ]
- Analysis (Market Proposals) , Analysis (Meta) , Inventions & Innovations
- Comments(2)
Chris, I very much hope people with better marketing skills than I will successfully apply decision markets. I am of course interested in hearing about new career options, but won’t quit my “day job” until a solid alternative is available. I’ll always enjoy some philosophy on the side though, no matter what my day job.
I was thinking about being a professor in a West Coast university (hopefully in Northern California), closer to where your audience is.