Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.

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Olivier Blanchard:

The worst is yet to come.

8 thoughts on “Justin Wolfers’ former thesis advisor (who is now Chief Economist at a little thing called the International Monetary Fund) said that the global financial crisis is set to worsen and that the situation will not improve until 2010.

  1. Caveat Bettor said:

    The IMF is TARP for dictators.  Discount.

  2. Chris F. Masse said:

    I agree with you at 50%.

  3. Medemi said:

    IMO,

    there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010

    a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression

    a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009

    But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.

    So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market. 

    Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that. 

  4. Caveat Bettor said:

    The IMF is TARP for dictators.  Discount.

  5. Chris F. Masse said:

    I agree with you at 50%.

  6. Medemi said:

    IMO,

    there’s a 40% chance the economies will recover in 2010

    a 40% chance we’ll see a 5-10 year severe depression

    a 20% chance we’ll recover in 2009

    But you don’t need me for that. We should have prediction markets telling us that, so we can collect all opinions from the so-called experts and throw them collectively in the thrash can. Besides, most experts won’t tell us everything they know if prospects are really bad, as to avoid creating a panic. That includes our friend from the IMF.

    So there’s your social utility, again. At least we can be honest without creating a panic. The inability of some people to tell it like it is also creates unnecessary uncertainty, which is also reflected in the stock market. 

    Prediction markets are depersonalized instruments, and I like the sound of that. 

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