The CFTC is going to close the comments in 5 days. We have 5 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowi

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– CALL TO ACTION: Let&#8217-s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with &#8220-event markets&#8221-.

– In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are on the wrong side of the issue.

– The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).

– COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini


CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts&#8230- notably how they define &#8220-event markets&#8221-, how they are going to extend their &#8220-exemption&#8221- to other IEM-like prediction exchanges, and how they framed their questions to the public. Here are the comments sent to the CFTC.

– The Arnold &amp- Porter lawyer&#8217-s take. &#8212- (PDF file)

The Schulte, Roth &amp- Zabel lawyers&#8217- take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– The Sullivan &amp- Cromwell lawyers&#8217- take. &#8212- (PDF file)

– Michael Giberson&#8217-s economic take.

– Chris Hibbert&#8217-s libertarian take.

– Tom W. Bell&#8217-s libertarian take.

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize the real-money prediction markets in the United States of America


This week, two prediction market organizations and one VIP will submit their comment to the CFTC.

– What Vernon Smith told the CFTC. &#8212- (PDF file)

– Jed Christiansen&#8217-s pragmatic take. &#8212- Final draft – (PDF file)

– The International Swaps and Derivatives Association&#8217-s comment to the CFTC &#8212- (ISDA) &#8212- (PDF file)

Jason Ruspini&#8217-s comment to the CFTC &#8212- (PDF file)

– A young economist rebuts the American Enterprise Institute. &#8212- (MO mirror) &#8212- Comment to the CFTC – (PDF file)


Paul Wolfowitz&#8217-s profile at the American Enterprise Institute

– How the neo-cons drove the United States of America into the unecessary Iraq war

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