CORRUPTION IN TENNIS: the Nikolay Davydenko vs. Vassallo Arguello prediction markets at BetFair

No GravatarAs Midas Oracle has reported, BetFair decided to void all bets because its 40-person anti-corruption team detected foul speculation:

  • The volume was ten times higher than the normal-
  • The clear favorite (Nikolay Davydenko) was short-sold en masse one hour before the start of the tennis match-
  • Nikolay Davydenko (who won the first set, but lost the second set) declared an injury in the third set and resigned from the game.

Nikolay Davydenko

Czarek Sokolowski / AP


The Numbers Guy (who blogs for the Wall Street Journal) has interviewed the BetFair manager responsible of the anti-corruption team at BetFair, and tries hard to come up with explanations for the foul betting. He can&#8217-t.

[&#8230-] To verify, tape of the match would have to be reviewed to see if Mr. Davydenko’s injury was apparent. Mr. Marks told me that a Betfair employee watching the match saw no evidence of injury until a trainer visited Mr. Davydenko in the second round. [&#8230-]

It looks like Nikolay Davydenko, before the match, had alerted some accomplices that he would resign in the third set. Those accomplices would have short-sold him at BetFair. But it&#8217-s of course impossible to accuse a professional tennis athlete of foul play without strong evidence.



Did we suspect an innocent??

Bet scandal worries Davydenko

RUSSIAN Nikolay Davydenko is worried his reputation will suffer after becoming embroiled in a betting controversy. Davydenko retired with a foot injury in the third set of his match with Argentine Martin Vasallo Arguello at the ATP event in Sopot, Poland, last week, only to find the match was at the centre of a betting scandal. &#8220-It&#8217-s so surprising,&#8221- Davydenko said in Montreal, where he is competing in the Masters Series tournament. &#8220-Like, who can know that I can be injured and (would) retire in my match? &#8220-I am disappointed, because I&#8217-m a top player and people are talking (about it) not only in Russia, in my country, (but) also talking everywhere in the world. &#8220-It is pretty tough for me, I get more pressure now. Mentally, it&#8217-s pretty tough.&#8221- British betting exchange Betfair voided all bets on the match, saying $8.55 million had been placed on it, more than twice the usual amount. Though world No. 5 Davydenko won the first set, Vasallo Arguello &#8212- ranked about 80 places lower &#8212- became the favourite, the opposite of normal practice in such a situation. Betfair voided all bets and notified the governing body of men&#8217-s tennis, the ATP. Davydenko said he was not in contact with anyone regarding the throwing of a match. &#8220-I play 30 tournaments in a year,&#8221- he said. &#8220-Last year I lost 10 tournaments in the first round and also sometimes I&#8217-m injured and I retire from a match.&#8221-
– Reuters

NEXT: BetFair has an anti-fraud team whereas InTrade-TradeSports has none.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…
  • Terrorism Futures
  • The secrecy-seeking Mark Davies is solely to blame for all this mess… but this vibrating BetFair spin doctor has managed to repair the PR damages quite brillantly, it shall be said.
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !??
  • BetFair’s new bet matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples
  • Dick Cheney, the new Churchill?
  • BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *