An Analysis of the Superbowl Using Price Changes on an Online Prediction Exchange – (TradeSports) – (PDF) – by Keith Jacks Gamble – 2007-02-08
ABSTRACT: I analyze Superbowl XLI by matching price changes for a futures contract on the winner to play-by-play data. The price change following a play measures the impact of that play on the market’s expectation of which team will win. Thus, these price changes identify the relative importance of each play in determining the outcome. Four of the top five impact plays of the game were turnovers, led by Kelvin Hayden’s interception return for a touchdown. These price changes also provide a new statistic for measuring and comparing players’ performances. Despite winning the Most Valuable Player Award, Payton Manning ranks 10th on the list of positive impact players for the Colts. By far the greatest contributor to the Colts’ victory was Rex Grossman, whose poor play for the Bears contributed twice as much as the top performing Colt.
CONCLUSION: This analysis of Superbowl XLI shows how price changes on an online exchange can be used to measure the impact of each play on the final outcome. […]
NOTE: This is just for the openers. It could be that Keith Jacks Gamble will publish a blog post on Midas Oracle, soon —-if he wishes.