QUESTION: Tell me what you think of the (public, real-money) “-prediction markets”- (a.k.a. betting markets) without citing the names of either Robin Hanson or Justin Wolfers. Thanks. Are they useful, really? If not, then why are econ bloggers in love with them?
I used to be a bigger fan of them, before I discovered their enormous transaction costs:
If and when somebody makes an easy legal and cheap prediction market, I think it will be very useful indeed. For the time being, they’-re interesting and fun.