It’-s not the motivation that is important to assess —-it’-s the liquidity that counts. The more trades, the better. Liquidity leads to statistically accurate probabilities predictions. Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, doc.
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Robin Hanson:
One proposed distinguishing criteria includes the size of an individual trader’-s stake, and the number of traders. The Iowa Electronic Markets are limited on both of these parameters. Such limits do succeed in preventing large hedging markets from masquerading as info-motivated event markets. But they do little to prevent generic gambling markets from masquerading as info-motivated event markets.
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Total absurdity.
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UPDATE: Robin Hanson comments…-
Again, important for what purpose? The CFTC was clear that they are concerned about how to keep generic gambling from slipping in via whatever they might approve. I was addressing that concern. I don’t see how you can read anything I said as arguing against liquidity.
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Again, important for what purpose? The CFTC was clear that they are concerned about how to keep generic gambling from slipping in via whatever they might approve. I was addressing that concern. I don’t see how you can read anything I said as arguing against liquidity.