July 9th, 2008
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1:25pm Opening Remarks
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1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences
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Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm)
- Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber)
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Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm)
- Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance (Michael Abramowicz and Todd Henderson)
- Predicting Crime (Todd Henderson, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz)
Discussion (2:05pm – 2:15pm)
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2:20pm-3:10pm Session 2: Security Design and Theory
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Speaker: Hajime Mizuyama (2:15 pm — 2:30pm)
- Intra-Firm Prediction Market System Using VIPS for Demand Forecasting (Hajime Mizuyama)
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Speaker: Stefan Stathel (2:30 pm –2:45pm)
- Information Efficiency and Liquidity in Information Markets: A market-maker based approach (Stefan Stathel, Clemens van Dinther, and Stefan Luckner)
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Speaker: Eiichero Kazumori (2:45 pm — 3:00pm)
- A Strategic Theory of Markets (Eiichiro Kazumori)
Discussion (3pm-3:10pm)
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3:10pm-3:30pm: Break
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3:30-4:25pm: Session 3: Event Detection
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Speaker: Todd Kuethe (3:30 – 3:45pm)
- Identifying “Tipping Points” in US Presidential Campaigns: Evidence from Prediction Market Prices 1992-2004 (Todd H. Kuethe, David Ubilava, Benoit Delbecq, and Kenneth A. Foster)
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Speaker: George Tziralis (3:45pm – 4:00pm)
- Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling (George Tziralis and Panos Ipeirotis)
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Speaker: Abe Othman (4:00pm-4:15pm)
- Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty Aversion in Information Markets (Ivan Corwin and Abe Othman)
Discussion (4:15pm-4:25pm)
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Session 4: Comparison to Alternatives (4:25-4:55pm)
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Speaker: Andreas Graefe (4:25-4:45pm)
- Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
- Group Decision Making – Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi, and Prediction Markets Compared (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
Discussion: 4:45-4:55pm
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Wrap-up: 4:55-5pm
