The Third:
July 9th, 2008
–
1:25pm Opening Remarks
–
1:30 – 2:20pm: Session 1: Practical Applications and Experiences
–
Speaker: Emile Servan-Schreiber (1:30-1:45pm)
- Keys to successful implementation of an internal corporate prediction market (Emile Servan-Schreiber)
–
Speaker: Todd Henderson (1:45-2:05pm)
- Prediction Markets for Corporate Governance (Michael Abramowicz and Todd Henderson)
- Predicting Crime (Todd Henderson, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz)
Discussion (2:05pm – 2:15pm)
–
2:20pm-3:10pm Session 2: Security Design and Theory
–
Speaker: Hajime Mizuyama (2:15 pm —- 2:30pm)
- Intra-Firm Prediction Market System Using VIPS for Demand Forecasting (Hajime Mizuyama)
–
Speaker: Stefan Stathel (2:30 pm –-2:45pm)
- Information Efficiency and Liquidity in Information Markets: A market-maker based approach (Stefan Stathel, Clemens van Dinther, and Stefan Luckner)
–
Speaker: Eiichero Kazumori (2:45 pm —- 3:00pm)
- A Strategic Theory of Markets (Eiichiro Kazumori)
Discussion (3pm-3:10pm)
–
3:10pm-3:30pm: Break
–
3:30-4:25pm: Session 3: Event Detection
–
Speaker: Todd Kuethe (3:30 – 3:45pm)
- Identifying “-Tipping Points”- in US Presidential Campaigns: Evidence from Prediction Market Prices 1992-2004 (Todd H. Kuethe, David Ubilava, Benoit Delbecq, and Kenneth A. Foster)
–
Speaker: George Tziralis (3:45pm – 4:00pm)
- Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling (George Tziralis and Panos Ipeirotis)
–
Speaker: Abe Othman (4:00pm-4:15pm)
- Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty Aversion in Information Markets (Ivan Corwin and Abe Othman)
Discussion (4:15pm-4:25pm)
–
Session 4: Comparison to Alternatives (4:25-4:55pm)
–
Speaker: Andreas Graefe (4:25-4:45pm)
- Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
- Group Decision Making – Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi, and Prediction Markets Compared (Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong)
Discussion: 4:45-4:55pm
–
Wrap-up: 4:55-5pm
Previous blog posts by Chris “GadFly” Masse:
- PROF TOM W. BELL, PLEASE, DO SKIP THE PAGAN CELEBRATIONS, AND, PLEASE, DO RETURN TO YOUR DESK TO FINISH THE DRAFT OF YOUR COMMENT TO THE CFTC. THANKS FOR YOUR PRAGMATIC (NOT ‘ETHEREAL’) CONTRIBUTION TO “THE FUTURE OF HUMANITY”. (There is a hidden slam to Robin Hanson in this title. I wonder whether people will get the joke.)
- The CFTC is going to close the comments in 3 days. We have 3 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
- TOM W. BELL: “Thanks, Chris. Thanks, too, for being such an effective gadfly. I might well have blown off the whole exercise if you had not kept blogging about how you were awaiting my comment!”
- What to think of HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC
- The freshest comments sent to the CFTC
- “To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.”
- HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook