The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Caveat Bettor

If Clinton or Edwards wins, Zogby will be declared the winner. If any other candidate wins, the contest will be called as a draw. The Intrade snapshot was taken at 2:20pm today.

Details posted at Caveat Bettor.

About Caveat Bettor

Prediction Market Trader (and a Proprietary Trader and Risk Manager, working for a few investment banks for more than 20 years) - North America
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One Response to The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

  1. Chris. F. Masse says:
    January 26, 2008 at 2:59 AM

    QUOTE

    Jed points out the weakest point of my Intrade v. Zogby Showdown contests: Intrade contracts are winner-take-all, while Zogby poll statistics are linear probabilities. I attempt to normalize the “predictiveness” between them by looking first at the clear leader, if there is one, and then compare candidate probabilties to break ties. I also take snapshots on the eve of each election, a T-1 approach.

    UNQUOTE
    http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2008/01/jed-christiansen-with-fanastic-primer.html

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