Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
The Michigan GOP Showdown, at Caveat Bettor:
If McCain wins, then the contest will be called for Intrade. If either Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani or Thompson win, the contest will be called for Zogby. If any other candidate wins, a draw will be called.
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Good idea, Cav. PMs should be compared to other mechanisms. Keep us informed till the end of this long race.
Looks like Zogby won it then;
“Mitt Romney burst back into contention for the Republican presidential nomination on Tuesday with a comeback victory over John McCain in the Michigan primary.
The former governor of Massachusetts beat the Arizona senator by 39 per cent to 30 per cent, with Mike Huckabee, the former governor for Arkansas, in third with 16 per cent.”
I look forward to reading the post result analysis.
In a way you were asking for this, due to your unscientific method of comparison. Another black eye for prediction markets.
Depends at what time you take your PM snapshot.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/01/16/the-michigan-primary-as-seen-thru-the-prism-of-the-intrade-prediction-markets/
I’m more interested in the whole course of trading, rather than one point in time.
Niall: How could this contest be made more scientific?