Sadly, from our analysis, the impression that one gets is of a market that is spooked by poll results; driven by stale news; and heavily influenced by gossip and rumour.
Questions:
- Could Lord O’Connor cite the name of a more accurate forecasting tool?
- Could Lord O’Connor publish his own track record at predicting the US and British elections?
- Could Lord O’Connor give one example of an infallible human institution?
- Could Lord O’Connor state publicly whether he believes in knowing the future in advance with 100% accuracy? (If yes, then I’ll suggest to the CIA to hire him to get Bin Laden.)
Previously: Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.
